Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ocado Group PLC £3.92, price £2.31, upside +69.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.59 – £20.90 · fair‑value band £3.08 – £5.06 · the £2.31 price screens below the £3.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ocado Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Technology Solutions and Logistics segments.
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Ocado Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Technology Solutions and Logistics segments. It provides end-to-end online retail and automated storage and retrieval solutions for general merchandise to corporate customers; and Ocado Intelligent Automation that provides automation solutions to sectors outside of grocery retail. The company also provides third-party logistics services through Ocado storage and retrieval system. Ocado Group plc was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Hatfield, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) currently trades at £2.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.92, implying the stock looks roughly 41.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £9.81 per share, and 19 of the 21 models we run sit above the £2.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.26, and 2 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £3.08 (bear) to £5.06 (bull), the price of £2.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Ocado Group PLC reported revenue of 1.4B GBX in FY2025 versus 2.5B GBX in FY2021, a compound −13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 405M GBX in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.1B GBX · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) £−0.3000 · Net margin 29.3% · Return on equity −15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.3% · Operating margin 11.9% · Revenue (TTM) £1.7B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 70%, OCDO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £3.08Fair Value £3.92Bull £5.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.4% (2020) → −13.8% (2025)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.5% a year for the price and −1.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+70% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth54% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ocado Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OCDO
Frequently asked questions
Is Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.92 versus a price of £2.31, about +70% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OCDO?
Our model-based fair value for Ocado Group PLC is £3.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.31.
What is the quality score of OCDO?
Ocado Group PLC has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario £3.08, optimistic scenario £5.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ocado Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.92, about +70% upside versus a price of £2.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £3.08, optimistic scenario £5.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
Ocado Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ocado Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OCDO use?
Our models discount Ocado Group PLC at 14.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 2.39, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ocado Group PLC that is +2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ocado Group PLC grew -9.9 % a year. The price currently implies +2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ocado Group PLC (+2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.35 %: that much free cash flow Ocado Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ocado Group PLC it is £3.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £2.31. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ocado Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OCDO trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.31, fair value £3.92, a gap of about +70% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCDO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.92). For Ocado Group PLC the two are £1.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ocado Group PLC worth?
The market values Ocado Group PLC at about 2.1B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £2.31; our models calculate a fair value of £3.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCDO?
Our models span a range for Ocado Group PLC: cautious scenario £3.08, base £3.92, optimistic £5.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £2.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ocado Group PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −15.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCDO from its 52-week high?
Ocado Group PLC trades at £2.31, about 20% below its 52-week high of £2.89 and 45% above the low of £1.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ocado Group PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ocado Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £2.31, calculated fair value £3.92 (+70%), Quality Score 47/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCDO calculated?
We run Ocado Group PLC through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £3.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ocado Group PLC currently trades 70 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £2.31. Our model-based fair value is £3.92, about +70% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ocado Group PLC right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (£3.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Ocado Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
The market capitalisation of Ocado Group PLC is 2.1B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ocado Group PLC is 0.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
Earnings per share at Ocado Group PLC are £−0.3000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
The net margin of Ocado Group PLC is 29.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ocado Group PLC is −15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ocado Group PLC is −7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
The operating margin of Ocado Group PLC is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
Revenue at Ocado Group PLC is growing +53.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) carry?
The net debt of Ocado Group PLC is 1.3B GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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