Ocado Group (OCDO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · GB · Market cap 1.4B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from £3.12 to £3.11 (−0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +23.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 88% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.66). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.22 – £16.07 · fair‑value band £2.66 – £4.07 · the £1.65 price screens below the £3.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Ocado Group (OCDO) currently trades at £1.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.11, implying the stock looks roughly 88.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ocado Group generated revenue of £1.4B at a net margin of 29.3%. Revenue grew 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -28.7%. Net debt stands at £1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £2.66 (bear case) to £4.07 (bull case); at £1.65, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at 88%, OCDO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£9.81) versus Asset-Based (£1.26). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ocado Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Technology Solutions and Logistics segments.
Full company description
Ocado Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Technology Solutions and Logistics segments. It provides end-to-end online retail and automated storage and retrieval solutions for general merchandise to corporate customers; and Ocado Intelligent Automation that provides automation solutions to sectors outside of grocery retail. The company also provides third-party logistics services through Ocado storage and retrieval system. Ocado Group plc was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Hatfield, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ocado Group reported revenue of £1.4B in FY2025 versus £2.5B in FY2021, a compound −13.8%/yr. Reported net income was £405M in FY2025.
Watch OCDO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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