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Data-driven stock valuation

Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR (OLCLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $23.3B · ISIN US68620X1046

At a glance

OL Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR logo Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR OLCLY · US
Price$20.13
Fair Value$11.26
Upside−44.1%
Quality61/100

A solid business, but trading 79% above our fair value of $11.26.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR is $11.26 per share against a price of $20.13, so the fair value sits 44% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +34.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.3% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.65% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 15 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 13 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $7.67 to $14.08

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $10.92 to $11.26 (+3.1%) since Aug 20, 2026. Share price +11.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($7.67 to $14.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$39.85 $13.45 Fair Value $11.26 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.45 – $39.85 · fair‑value band $7.67 – $14.08 · the $20.13 price screens above the $11.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR (OLCLY) currently trades at $20.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.26, implying the stock looks roughly 78.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.38 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $20.13 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.55, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR generated revenue of ¥705B at a net margin of 17.3%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of ¥142B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $7.67 (bear) to $14.08 (bull), the price of $20.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −44%, OLCLY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $6.29 $9.79 $15.45 79
Growth DCF $6.32 $9.71 $15.15 77
Owner Earnings $6.64 $10.38 $16.43 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $6.29 $9.79 $15.45 79
Owner Earnings $6.64 $10.38 $16.43 75
5Y Revenue Exit $4.39 $6.18 $8.46 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $8.13 $13.48 $19.97 74
5Y P/E Exit $7.86 $12.96 $18.55 70
10Y Revenue Exit $4.93 $6.78 $9.31 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $7.43 $11.97 $18.46 67
10Y P/E Exit $7.26 $11.60 $17.33 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.48 $13.19 $17.86 64
Lynch FV $3.20 $4.57 $5.94 61
PEG = 1.0 $3.20 $4.57 $5.94 57
EPV $5.83 $6.63 $7.33 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8843 $1.84 $2.92 66
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8843 $1.55 $1.93 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.45 $11.26 $14.08 63
P/S Multiple $2.66 $3.55 $4.44 58
P/B Multiple $6.53 $8.70 $10.88 55
EV/EBIT $10.58 $13.76 $16.95 66
EV/EBITDA $9.91 $12.87 $15.83 67
EV/Revenue $3.51 $4.58 $5.64 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.19 $2.93 $4.38 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.32 $9.71 $15.15 77
Rev-Margin DCF $4.39 $6.21 $8.43 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $4.02 $4.74 $9.95 71
ROIC Compounder $6.25 $7.94 $10.14 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $6.02 $8.60 $11.18 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($10.38) versus Dividend Discount ($1.55). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 43.8
P/S ratio 7.57 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.4600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.8
Dividend yield 0.7% payout 28.4%
Net margin 17.3% FY2026
Return on equity 12.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 15.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥705B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.9% 3y avg +15.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +2.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥111B FY2026
Net cash ¥142B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Oriental Land Co., Ltd. operates and manages theme parks and hotels in Japan. It operates through Theme Park and Hotels segments. The Theme Park segment operates and manages Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea theme parks.

Full company description

Oriental Land Co., Ltd. operates and manages theme parks and hotels in Japan. It operates through Theme Park and Hotels segments. The Theme Park segment operates and manages Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea theme parks. The Hotel Business segment operates and manages Tokyo Disneyland Hotel, Tokyo DisneySea Hotel MiraCosta, Disney Ambassador Hotel, Tokyo Disney Celebration Hotel, Tokyo Disney Resort Toy Story Hotel, and Tokyo DisneySea Fantasy Springs Hotel. The company also operates and manages Ikspiari, a shopping complex that includes shops and restaurants, and a cinema complex; and Disney Resort Line, a monorail connecting four stations. It is also involved in the land development and maintenance of landscaping. Oriental Land Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Urayasu, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥747B in FY2026 versus ¥276B in FY2022, a compound +28.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥129B in FY2026, compounding +100.0%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$747B
Latest YoY
+10.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+34.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+30.7%
Dividend yield0.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 30.7% vs 10Y 6.2%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27.0% (2021) → 23.9% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop162% (2021) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +28.3%/yr
FY22 ¥276B
FY23 ¥483B
FY24 ¥618B
FY25 ¥679B
FY26 ¥747B
Net income +100.0%/yr
FY22 ¥8.1B
FY23 ¥80.7B
FY24 ¥120B
FY25 ¥124B
FY26 ¥129B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +6.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.7 %

of which total revenue +4.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.5 %

EBIT margin +0.8 %
Tax rate +0.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

OLCLY screens 79% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OLCLY

Peer Group

Leisure · 192 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −46% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 43.8× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 6.77× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+14.2 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+34.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.6 %
FCF yield on price2.18 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.1 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 18
FUTURE15 · sector 14
PAST51 · sector 19
HEALTH90 · sector 94
DIVIDEND13 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 25/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ANTA Sports Products Limited 82020 HK$65.10 HK$97.98 +51%
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$154.70 HK$227.30 +47%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $33.03 $16.16 −51%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $94.10 $81.97 −13%
Life Time Group LTH $45.40 $15.61 −66%
Li Ning Company 82331 HK$11.62 HK$11.48 −1%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $89.10 $36.89 −59%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥44.94 ¥39.73 −12%
Mattel, Inc MAT $15.26 $18.93 +24%
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $53.33 $52.62 −1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR (OLCLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.26 versus a price of $20.13, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OLCLY?
Our model-based fair value for Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR is $11.26 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.13.
What is the quality score of OLCLY?
Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR (OLCLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.26 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.67, optimistic scenario $14.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.26, about −44% upside versus a price of $20.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.67, optimistic scenario $14.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR (OLCLY)?
Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥705B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of OLCLY?
The net profit margin of Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR is about 17.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR (OLCLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +14.2 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +34.4 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OLCLY use?
Our models discount Oriental Land Co Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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