Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 13, 2026: fair value of Olaplex Holdings Inc $0.36, price $2.07, upside -82.6%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $1.01 – $29.41 · fair‑value band $0.2600 – $0.4600 · the $2.07 price screens above the $0.3600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Olaplex Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells haircare products in the United States and internationally. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair, as well as oil, moisture mask, and nourishing hair serum.
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Olaplex Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells haircare products in the United States and internationally. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair, as well as oil, moisture mask, and nourishing hair serum. It also provides in-salon services for repairing and shaping curls. The company distributes its products through professional distributors in salons, directly to retailers for sale in their physical stores, e-commerce sites, and its website, as well as third party e-commerce platforms. Olaplex Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX) currently trades at $2.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3600, 82.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.34 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $2.07 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.1300, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2600 (bear) to $0.4600 (bull), the price of $2.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Olaplex Holdings Inc reported revenue of $423M in FY2025 versus $598M in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/S ratio 3.24 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity −1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8% · Operating margin −5.1% · Revenue (TTM) $425M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −83%, OLPX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2600Fair Value $0.3600Bull $0.4600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
30.5% (2020) → 3.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.7% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−82.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−5.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.57× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)3.24× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF23.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA26.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 64
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3600 versus the last price from Jul 13, 2026 of $2.07, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OLPX?
Our model-based fair value for Olaplex Holdings Inc is $0.3600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 13, 2026): $2.07.
What is the quality score of OLPX?
Olaplex Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2600, optimistic scenario $0.4600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Olaplex Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3600, about −83% upside versus the last price from Jul 13, 2026 of $2.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2600, optimistic scenario $0.4600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
Olaplex Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $425M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Olaplex Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +22.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OLPX use?
Our models discount Olaplex Holdings Inc at 13.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.86, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Olaplex Holdings Inc that is +22.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Olaplex Holdings Inc grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies +22.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Olaplex Holdings Inc (+22.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.23 %: that much free cash flow Olaplex Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Olaplex Holdings Inc it is $0.3600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.07. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Olaplex Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OLPX trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.07, fair value $0.3600, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OLPX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3600). For Olaplex Holdings Inc the two are $1.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Olaplex Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Olaplex Holdings Inc at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.07; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OLPX?
Our models span a range for Olaplex Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $0.2600, base $0.3600, optimistic $0.4600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Olaplex Holdings Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.7%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OLPX from its 52-week high?
Olaplex Holdings Inc trades at $2.07, at its 52-week high of $2.07 and 105% above the low of $1.01 (as of Jul 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Olaplex Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Olaplex Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.07, calculated fair value $0.3600 (−83%), Quality Score 55/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OLPX calculated?
We run Olaplex Holdings Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Olaplex Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 13, 2026 and stands at $2.07. Our model-based fair value is $0.3600, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Olaplex Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Olaplex Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
The market capitalisation of Olaplex Holdings Inc is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Olaplex Holdings Inc is 3.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
Earnings per share at Olaplex Holdings Inc are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
The net margin of Olaplex Holdings Inc is −2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Olaplex Holdings Inc is −1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Olaplex Holdings Inc is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
The operating margin of Olaplex Holdings Inc is −5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
Revenue at Olaplex Holdings Inc is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX)?
Earnings per share at Olaplex Holdings Inc are growing −16.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Olaplex Holdings Inc (OLPX) carry?
The net debt of Olaplex Holdings Inc is $33.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026