Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.4B
Olaplex Holdings
OLPX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $0.7700 to $0.3600 (−53.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 83% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $1.01 – $29.41 · fair‑value band $0.2600 – $0.4600 · the $2.07 price screens above the $0.3600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Olaplex Holdings (OLPX) currently trades at $2.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3600, implying the stock looks roughly 82.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Olaplex Holdings generated revenue of $425M at a net margin of -3.5%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.7%. Net debt stands at $33.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.2600 (bear case) to $0.4600 (bull case); at $2.07, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -83%, OLPX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($0.8800) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Olaplex Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells haircare products in the United States and internationally. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair, as well as oil, moisture mask, and nourishing hair serum.
Full company description
Olaplex Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells haircare products in the United States and internationally. The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair, as well as oil, moisture mask, and nourishing hair serum. It also provides in-salon services for repairing and shaping curls. The company distributes its products through professional distributors in salons, directly to retailers for sale in their physical stores, e-commerce sites, and its website, as well as third party e-commerce platforms. Olaplex Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2014 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Olaplex Holdings reported revenue of $423M in FY2025 versus $598M in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.3M in FY2025.
OLPX screens 83% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
Compare Olaplex Holdings with another stock
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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