ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ON Semiconductor Corporation stock $21.79, price $69.61, that is 68.7% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 69% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 61/100
Solidly profitable · 10.8% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Profit last quarter +26% vs. a year ago.
Mixed vs. peers(7/14)
Moderate moat51/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $1.2M (6M)
Changed on Oct 27: $40.70→ $21.79
Fair value $21.79 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth(revenue 3y −10.4 %/yr in USD)
Thin data
Extreme value⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Softness in auto demand contributing to the sharp pullback🚩Softness in auto demand visible in recent peer guidance🚩Debt from Synaptics acquisition🚩Chinese rivals pressuring SiC prices
Watch ON Semiconductor Corporation for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.95 – $133.93 · fair‑value band $20.79 – $23.93 · the $69.61 price screens above the $21.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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ON Semiconductor Corporation provides intelligent sensing and power solutions in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed-Signal Group, and Intelligent Sensing Group.
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The Power Solutions Group segment offers discrete, module, and integrated semiconductor devices designed to enable power conversion, including power switching, signal conditioning, and circuit protection technologies.
Its Analog and Mixed-Signal Group segment designs and develops analog and mixed-signal solutions, including power management, sensor interface, connectivity, and standard products for automotive, industrial automation, AI data centers, computing, and mobile end markets.
The Intelligent Sensing Group segment develops complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor image sensors, image signal processors, short-wave infrared sensors, and other products, as well as photon-counting technologies, including single-photon avalanche diode arrays and silicon photomultiplier devices for depth sensing, factory automation, safety systems, and robotics industries.
ON Semiconductor Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock analysis
ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) currently trades at $69.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.79, 69% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $29.02 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $69.61 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.50, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $20.79 (bear) to $23.93 (bull), the price of $69.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ON Semiconductor Corporation reported revenue of $6.0B in FY2025 versus $6.7B in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was $121M in FY2025, compounding −41.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $28.2B Large · P/E ratio 40.7 · P/S ratio 4.42 · EPS (TTM) $1.71 · Net margin 10.8% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 22.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −69%, ON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.59 to $62.37). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$20.79Fair Value $21.79Bull$23.93
Price $69.61 · Downside -68.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.48 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$30.95$43.22$58.5381
Growth DCF$31.28$42.16$55.0380
Owner Earnings$18.69$26.41$36.0577
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$30.95$43.22$58.5381
Owner Earnings$18.69$26.41$36.0577
5Y Revenue Exit$12.89$15.14$17.3474
5Y EBITDA Exit$25.36$37.80$51.6775
5Y P/E Exit$15.13$19.21$23.0872
10Y Revenue Exit$20.37$23.93$27.6068
10Y EBITDA Exit$27.43$37.75$50.3669
10Y P/E Exit$21.67$26.41$31.4165
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$2.11$5.70$7.4665
Lynch FV$1.11$1.59$2.0761
PEG = 1.0$1.11$1.59$2.0757
Multiples
P/E Multiple$6.53$8.70$10.8863
P/S Multiple$3.96$5.28$6.6158
P/B Multiple$46.77$62.37$77.9655
EV/EBIT$0.5000$1.80$3.1060
EV/EBITDA$23.32$32.22$41.1367
EV/Revenuen/an/a$0.260050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.65$2.50$3.1255
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$31.28$42.16$55.0380
Rev-Margin DCF$12.89$15.87$19.5074
Economic Profit
Residual Income$11.02$11.55$12.6871
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$5.04$7.19$9.3567
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $1.2M and none bought.
SaleSudhir GopalswamyGroup President, AMG & ISG2× since Mar 13, 2026: 21,692 shares, avg. $73.99$1.6MOct 1, 2026
SaleTrent ThadExec VP & CFO4× since Dec 3, 2025: 170,000 shares, avg. $79.79$13.6MApr 24, 2026
SaleSimon KeetonGroup President, PSG2× since Dec 4, 2025: 69,860 shares, avg. $66.93$4.7MFeb 17, 2026
SaleHassane El-KhouryCEO & President, Director20,000 shares at $73.02$1.5MFeb 12, 2026
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.1% vs −3.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.0% a year for the price and +9.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The company's main strength is its supply of power chips for electric vehicles and AI data centers while its main weak point remains modest returns with low ROE and margins amid thin evidence of durability.
Main risk: The shift to an all-cash Synaptics deal financed partly by up to 2.45 billion US dollars in term loans could increase leverage and constrain future investments or refinancing options in power and sensing technologies.
Onsemi supplies power chips for electric vehicles and the power-hungry infrastructure of AI data centers. Softness in auto demand, visible in recent peer guidance, has contributed to the sharp pullback from the 52-week high even as new silicon carbide wins in utility storage emerge. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will gains in efficient power delivery for AI outweigh any further drag from slower EV cycles?
Compare ON Semiconductor Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 397 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−68.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.9% · Above median
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)10.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)22.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)40.7× · Pricier than median
P/B3.67× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.42× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)19.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA14.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.16× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)36· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.79 versus a price of $69.61, about 69% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ON?
Our model-based fair value for ON Semiconductor Corporation is $21.79 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $69.61.
What is the quality score of ON?
ON Semiconductor Corporation has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.79 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.79, optimistic scenario $23.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ON Semiconductor Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.79, about 69% lower versus a price of $69.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.79, optimistic scenario $23.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
ON Semiconductor Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ON Semiconductor Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +14.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ON use?
Our models discount ON Semiconductor Corporation at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.15, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ON Semiconductor Corporation that is +14.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ON Semiconductor Corporation grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +14.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ON Semiconductor Corporation (+14.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.04 %: that much free cash flow ON Semiconductor Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ON Semiconductor Corporation it is $21.79 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $69.61. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, ON trades above its calculated fair value: price $69.61, fair value $21.79, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($69.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.79). For ON Semiconductor Corporation the two are $47.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ON Semiconductor Corporation worth?
The market values ON Semiconductor Corporation at about $28.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $69.61; our models calculate a fair value of $21.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ON?
Our models span a range for ON Semiconductor Corporation: cautious scenario $20.79, base $21.79, optimistic $23.93 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $69.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ON?
ON Semiconductor Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.7 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.79 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 23.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 3.7, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 14.9.
What is the PEG ratio of ON?
The PEG ratio of ON Semiconductor Corporation is 0.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
Balance-sheet figures for ON Semiconductor Corporation (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ON from its 52-week high?
ON Semiconductor Corporation trades at $69.61, about 48% below its 52-week high of $133.93 and 55% above the low of $44.90 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ON Semiconductor Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ON Semiconductor Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $69.61, calculated fair value $21.79 (−69%), Quality Score 61/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ON calculated?
We run ON Semiconductor Corporation through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $21.79 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. ON Semiconductor Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $69.61. Our model-based fair value is $21.79, about 69% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ON Semiconductor Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($23.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) come from?
Earnings per share at ON Semiconductor Corporation grew +23.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin +11.4 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ON Semiconductor Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
The market capitalisation of ON Semiconductor Corporation is $28.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ON Semiconductor Corporation is 4.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
Earnings per share at ON Semiconductor Corporation are $1.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
The net margin of ON Semiconductor Corporation is 10.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ON Semiconductor Corporation is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ON Semiconductor Corporation is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
The operating margin of ON Semiconductor Corporation is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
Revenue at ON Semiconductor Corporation is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)?
Earnings per share at ON Semiconductor Corporation are growing +26.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) carry?
The net debt of ON Semiconductor Corporation is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 10, 2026