Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited stock ₹393, price ₹230, upside +70.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹80.16 – ₹306.57 · fair‑value band ₹274.86 – ₹510.46 · the ₹230.00 price screens below the ₹392.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and distribution of crude oil, natural gas, and value-added products in India and internationally.
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It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining & Marketing, and Petrochemicals segments.
The company engages in the refining and marketing of petroleum products; liquefied natural gas supply; pipelines for transportation of petroleum products; SEZ development; helicopter services; and production of ethanol, sugar, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, ethane, propane, butane, kerosene oil, low sulphur heavy stock, residual crude oil, mineral turpentine oil, aviation turbine fuel, and high speed diesel.
It also generates wind power through a total installed capacity of 153.9 MW; and solar power through a total installed capacity of 39.96 MW. The company also exports its products. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited was founded in 1955 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Stock analysis
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) currently trades at ₹230.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹392.66, implying the stock looks roughly 41% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹854.35 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹230.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹175.98, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹274.86 (bear) to ₹510.46 (bull), the price of ₹230.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited reported revenue of ₹6.6T in FY2026 versus ₹4.9T in FY2022, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹414B in FY2026, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹2.9T (≈ $30.6B) Large · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) ₹34.60 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 71%, ONGC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹274.86Fair Value ₹392.66Bull₹510.46
Price ₹230.00 · Upside +70.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹12.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF₹696.73₹1,260₹2,17578
Growth DCF₹683.09₹1,175₹1,92576
Residual Income₹257.11₹286.63₹358.3976
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF₹696.73₹1,260₹2,17578
Owner Earnings₹454.29₹834.54₹1,45274
5Y Revenue Exit₹495.55₹859.08₹1,34771
5Y EBITDA Exit₹454.55₹773.01₹1,16574
5Y P/E Exit₹418.92₹698.22₹1,01270
10Y Revenue Exit₹547.32₹908.03₹1,45465
10Y EBITDA Exit₹535.26₹848.13₹1,30867
10Y P/E Exit₹512.87₹796.08₹1,18663
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd₹223.91₹1,108₹1,52764
Lynch FV₹298.49₹426.42₹554.3461
PEG = 1.0₹298.49₹426.42₹554.3457
EPV₹339.97₹396.24₹443.7674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM₹110.22₹206.33₹293.8667
DDM Multi-Stage₹110.22₹184.64₹219.4867
Multiples
P/E Multiple₹345.74₹460.99₹576.2463
P/S Multiple₹419.83₹559.78₹699.7258
P/B Multiple₹201.47₹268.62₹335.7855
EV/EBIT₹339.55₹490.40₹641.2565
EV/EBITDA₹292.29₹427.38₹562.4767
EV/Revenue₹329.21₹518.72₹708.2353
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)₹131.33₹175.98₹262.6654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF₹683.09₹1,175₹1,92576
Rev-Margin DCF₹495.55₹854.35₹1,32871
Economic Profit
Residual Income₹257.11₹286.63₹358.3976
ROIC Compounder₹360.09₹485.26₹640.0372
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E₹377.42₹539.18₹700.9367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.5% vs 8.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2002 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.0% a year for the price and −3.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (76 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Limited durable moat from regulatory exposure and state ownership forms the core weakness, while fleet modernization for reliability and efficiency stands as the main operational strength.
Main risk: Increased gas output from the Reliance-bp KG-D6 block might raise domestic supply and squeeze ONGC's gas realizations or market share.
Bull case: ONGC could leverage its scale and partnerships to accelerate deepwater projects and integrate more gas output while using digital tools to cut costs and maintain margins despite rival supply.
Bear case: Rising output from private deepwater rivals combined with subsidiary debt burdens might force ONGC to divert funds, slow its own developments and erode margins in a competitive domestic gas market.
ONGC just signed a contract for four hybrid electric platform supply vessels, the start of a plan to own about 30 percent of its offshore fleet by 2030. This targets better reliability and fuel efficiency for its operations even after the latest quarterly profit fell on lower oil prices and slightly weaker production. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will these steps to modernize support and deepwater work deliver more lasting gains than swings in realized prices?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 42 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+70.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.7% · Below median
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ONGC
Frequently asked questions
Is Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹392.66 versus a price of ₹230.00, about +71% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ONGC?
Our model-based fair value for Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is ₹392.66 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹230.00.
What is the quality score of ONGC?
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹392.66 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹274.86, optimistic scenario ₹510.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹392.66, about +71% upside versus a price of ₹230.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹274.86, optimistic scenario ₹510.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹7.0T (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited pay a dividend?
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 5.87% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.9 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ONGC use?
Our models discount Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited that is -12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited grew +16.9 % a year. The price currently implies -12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (-12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.74 %: that much free cash flow Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited it is ₹392.66 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ₹230.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ONGC trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹230.00, fair value ₹392.66, a gap of about +71% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ONGC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹230.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹392.66). For Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited the two are ₹162.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited worth?
The market values Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited at about ₹2.9T (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ₹230.00; our models calculate a fair value of ₹392.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ONGC?
Our models span a range for Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited: cautious scenario ₹274.86, base ₹392.66, optimistic ₹510.46 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ₹230.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ONGC?
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹392.66 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 7.9. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ONGC from its 52-week high?
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited trades at ₹230.00, about 23% below its 52-week high of ₹300.12 and 5% above the low of ₹219.80 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹392.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ₹230.00, calculated fair value ₹392.66 (+71%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ONGC calculated?
We run Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹392.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited currently trades 41% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ₹230.00. Our model-based fair value is ₹392.66, about +71% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹274.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹274.86 to ₹510.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) come from?
Earnings per share at Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited grew +9.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.8 %, EBIT margin −7.3 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
The market capitalisation of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is ₹2.9T (≈ $30.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is 0.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
Earnings per share at Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited are ₹34.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
The dividend yield of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is 5.9% (payout 39.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
The net margin of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is 6.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is 15.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
The operating margin of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
Revenue at Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is growing +25.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC)?
Earnings per share at Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited are growing +21.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) carry?
The net debt of Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited is ₹1.4T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 5, 2026