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Onterris (ONT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Onterris $29.46, price $17.02, upside +73.1%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US

O Onterris logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Onterris

ONT · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $29.46 · Strongly undervalued (+73%)
!Quality 44/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +20.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/14)
!Narrow moat 22/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $14.08 to $52.23
!Weak on past: 5 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$78.21 $10.74 Fair Value $29.46 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.74 – $78.21 · fair‑value band $14.08 – $52.23 · the $17.02 price screens below the $29.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Onterris, Inc. operates as an environmental services company in the United States, Australia, Canada, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Assessment, Permitting and Response; Measurement and Analysis; and Remediation and Reuse.

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Onterris, Inc. operates as an environmental services company in the United States, Australia, Canada, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Assessment, Permitting and Response; Measurement and Analysis; and Remediation and Reuse. The company offers scientific advisory and consulting services to support environmental assessments, environmental emergency response and recovery, toxicology consulting and environmental audits and permits for current operations, facility upgrades, new projects, decommissioning projects and development projects. It also provides environmental testing and laboratory services, including source and ambient air testing and monitoring, leak detection, and advanced multi-media laboratory services, including air, soil, stormwater, wastewater and drinking water analysis; and engineering, design, and implementation services comprising treatment technologies which treat contaminated water or soil remediation. The company serves oil and gas, utilities, local, state, provincial and federal government entities, technical services, industrial manufacturing, transportation, chemicals, renewable energy generation, telecommunications, and engineering industries. The company was formerly known as Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. and changed its name to Onterris, Inc. in May 2026. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in North Little Rock, Arkansas.

Stock analysis

Onterris (ONT) currently trades at $17.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.46, implying the stock looks roughly 42.2% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.11 per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the $17.02 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.36, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $14.08 (bear) to $52.23 (bull), the price of $17.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Onterris reported revenue of $831M in FY2025 versus $546M in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$843K in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $598M · P/E ratio 113.5 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin −0.1% · Return on equity 1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 73%, ONT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $14.08 Fair Value $29.46 Bull $52.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1097 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $26.86 $48.15 $100.39 75
Growth DCF $25.38 $51.75 $94.98 75
5Y EBITDA Exit $15.80 $32.74 $57.86 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $26.86 $48.15 $100.39 75
Owner Earnings $7.40 $21.85 $47.62 70
5Y Revenue Exit $6.34 $11.74 $19.24 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $15.80 $32.74 $57.86 72
10Y Revenue Exit $13.23 $22.11 $32.00 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $19.34 $37.65 $67.70 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.8900 $1.61 $2.21 68
DDM Multi-Stage $0.8900 $1.47 $1.72 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a n/a $0.0700 61
EV/EBITDA $11.11 $17.26 $23.41 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.24 $8.36 $12.48 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $25.38 $51.75 $94.98 75
Rev-Margin DCF $6.34 $12.53 $21.33 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 76
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 3
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 20
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.0% (2020) → 1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.7% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.3%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 167 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside +73% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.61× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 113.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.32× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.73× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 6.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)5 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)69 · sector 80
DIVIDEND (yield)13 · sector 44

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Waste Management, Inc WM $207.68 $228.45 +10%
Republic Services, Inc RSG $213.88 $128.02 −40%
Waste Connections, Inc WCN $155.42 $170.96 +10%
Veolia Environnement SA VIE €31.56 €24.17 −23%
Clean Harbors, Inc CLH $312.85 $155.37 −50%
GFL Environmental Inc GFL $42.34 $34.72 −18%
Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC €10.72 €7.30 −32%
Umicore SA UMI €21.70 €25.28 +16%
Casella Waste Systems, Inc CWST $85.76 $14.75 −83%
GEM Co 002340 ¥6.26 ¥5.27 −16%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Onterris Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ONT

Frequently asked questions

Is Onterris (ONT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.46 versus a price of $17.02, about +73% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ONT?
Our model-based fair value for Onterris is $29.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.02.
What is the quality score of ONT?
Onterris has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Onterris (ONT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.08, optimistic scenario $52.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Onterris stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.46, about +73% upside versus a price of $17.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.08, optimistic scenario $52.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Onterris (ONT)?
Onterris reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $821M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Onterris pay a dividend?
Onterris currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Onterris (ONT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Onterris would have to grow free cash flow by +3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ONT use?
Our models discount Onterris at 13.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Onterris that is +3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Onterris (ONT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Onterris grew +20.4 % a year. The price currently implies +3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Onterris (ONT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Onterris (+3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Onterris (ONT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.25 %: that much free cash flow Onterris produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Onterris (ONT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Onterris it is $29.46 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $17.02. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Onterris stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ONT trades below its calculated fair value: price $17.02, fair value $29.46, a gap of about +73% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ONT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.46). For Onterris the two are $12.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Onterris worth?
The market values Onterris at about $598M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $17.02; our models calculate a fair value of $29.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ONT?
Our models span a range for Onterris: cautious scenario $14.08, base $29.46, optimistic $52.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $17.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ONT?
Onterris trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 113.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $29.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Onterris (ONT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Onterris (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.2%, debt of 0.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ONT from its 52-week high?
Onterris trades at $17.02, about 43% below its 52-week high of $29.93 and 17% above the low of $14.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $29.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Onterris?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Onterris stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $17.02, calculated fair value $29.46 (+73%), Quality Score 44/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ONT calculated?
We run Onterris through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $29.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Onterris currently trades 73 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Onterris (ONT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $17.02. Our model-based fair value is $29.46, about +73% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Onterris right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($14.08 to $52.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of Onterris

How large is the market capitalisation of Onterris (ONT)?
The market capitalisation of Onterris is $598M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Onterris (ONT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Onterris is 0.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Onterris (ONT)?
Earnings per share at Onterris are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 113.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Onterris (ONT)?
The dividend yield of Onterris is 0.7% (payout 75.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Onterris (ONT)?
The net margin of Onterris is −0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Onterris (ONT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Onterris is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Onterris (ONT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Onterris is −2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Onterris (ONT)?
The operating margin of Onterris is −4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Onterris (ONT)?
Revenue at Onterris is growing −5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Onterris (ONT) carry?
The net debt of Onterris is $348M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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