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OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of OPAL Fuels Inc $1.45, price $1.86, upside -22.0%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Utilities · US · ISIN US68347P1030

OF OPAL Fuels Inc logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

OPAL Fuels Inc

OPAL · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $1.45 · Overvalued (−22%)
!Quality 21/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +24.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.7% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/8)
!Narrow moat 22/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 4 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.50 $1.30 Fair Value $1.45 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.30 – $11.50 · fair‑value band $1.09 – $1.72 · the $1.86 price screens above the $1.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

OPAL Fuels Inc. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of renewable natural gas (RNG) for use as a vehicle fuel for heavy and medium-duty trucking fleets throughout the United States. It operates through three segments, RNG Fuel, Fuel Station Services and Renewable Power.

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OPAL Fuels Inc. together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and distribution of renewable natural gas (RNG) for use as a vehicle fuel for heavy and medium-duty trucking fleets throughout the United States. It operates through three segments, RNG Fuel, Fuel Station Services and Renewable Power. The company also designs, develops, constructs, operates, and services fueling stations for trucking fleets that use natural gas to displace diesel as transportation fuel. In addition, it is involved in the design, development, and construction of hydrogen fueling stations. Further, the company engages in the generation and sale of renewable power to utilities; and environmental attributes associated with RNG and renewable power, as well as sale of RNG as pipeline quality natural gas. OPAL Fuels Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in White Plains, New York.

Stock analysis

OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL) currently trades at $1.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.45, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $1.98 per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the $1.86 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.7300, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.09 (bear) to $1.72 (bull), the price of $1.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

OPAL Fuels Inc reported revenue of $349M in FY2025 versus $166M in FY2021, a compound +20.4%/yr. Reported net income was $14.8M in FY2025, compounding +189.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $325M · P/E ratio 26.6 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −22%, OPAL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.09 Fair Value $1.45 Bull $1.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0514 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $0.4500 $0.8000 $1.10 68
DDM Multi-Stage $0.4500 $0.7300 $0.8600 67
Growth-Adj P/E $1.39 $1.98 $2.57 67
All 9 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.5500 $3.63 $5.08 63
Lynch FV $1.06 $1.51 $1.97 61
PEG = 1.0 $1.06 $1.51 $1.97 57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.4500 $0.8000 $1.10 68
DDM Multi-Stage $0.4500 $0.7300 $0.8600 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1.09 $1.45 $1.82 63
P/S Multiple $1.03 $1.37 $1.72 58
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a $0.1600 62
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $1.39 $1.98 $2.57 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 15
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 33
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+42.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−15% → 1%

OPAL screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 21 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −14% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)4 · sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)64 · sector 72

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €29.48 €32.79 +11%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $156.24 $77.92 −50%
NiSource Inc NI $39.25 $19.90 −49%
Uniper SE UN0 €48.45 €45.97 −5%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.12 HK$4.79 −33%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹172.95 ₹132.19 −24%
Italgas S.p.A IG €8.43 €9.27 +10%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥18.58 ¥61.20 +229%
UGI Corporation UGI $36.85 $32.82 −11%
Southwest Gas Holdings SWX $83.49 $57.83 −31%

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OPAL Fuels Inc · Fair Value
$1.45 −28%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "OPAL Fuels Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OPAL

Frequently asked questions

Is OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.45 versus a price of $1.86, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OPAL?
Our model-based fair value for OPAL Fuels Inc is $1.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.86.
What is the quality score of OPAL?
OPAL Fuels Inc has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.09, optimistic scenario $1.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OPAL Fuels Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.45, about −22% upside versus a price of $1.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.09, optimistic scenario $1.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
OPAL Fuels Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $337M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does OPAL Fuels Inc pay a dividend?
OPAL Fuels Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OPAL Fuels Inc it is $1.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.86. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OPAL Fuels Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OPAL trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.86, fair value $1.45, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OPAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.45). For OPAL Fuels Inc the two are $0.4100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OPAL Fuels Inc worth?
The market values OPAL Fuels Inc at about $325M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.86; our models calculate a fair value of $1.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OPAL?
Our models span a range for OPAL Fuels Inc: cautious scenario $1.09, base $1.45, optimistic $1.72 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OPAL?
OPAL Fuels Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.45 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for OPAL Fuels Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OPAL from its 52-week high?
OPAL Fuels Inc trades at $1.86, about 33% below its 52-week high of $2.78 and 4% above the low of $1.78 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OPAL Fuels Inc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OPAL Fuels Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.86, calculated fair value $1.45 (−22%), Quality Score 21/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OPAL calculated?
We run OPAL Fuels Inc through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. OPAL Fuels Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.86. Our model-based fair value is $1.45, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OPAL Fuels Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of OPAL Fuels Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
The market capitalisation of OPAL Fuels Inc is $325M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OPAL Fuels Inc is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
Earnings per share at OPAL Fuels Inc are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
The dividend yield of OPAL Fuels Inc is 3.2% (payout 85.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
The net margin of OPAL Fuels Inc is 4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OPAL Fuels Inc is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OPAL Fuels Inc is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
The operating margin of OPAL Fuels Inc is −4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
Revenue at OPAL Fuels Inc is growing −14.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL)?
Earnings per share at OPAL Fuels Inc are growing −41.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL) generate?
The free cash flow of OPAL Fuels Inc is −$34.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does OPAL Fuels Inc (OPAL) carry?
The net debt of OPAL Fuels Inc is $341M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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