Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Oregon Bancorp Inc stock $21.43, price $40.35, that is 46.9% below the price, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.78 – $40.49 · fair‑value band $20.56 – $30.39 · the $40.35 price screens above the $21.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Oregon Bancorp in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Oregon Bancorp is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Oregon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Willamette Valley Bank that provides banking services to businesses and individuals. It operates through two segments, Community Banking and Home Mortgage Lending.
Show moreShow less
The company offers checking and savings accounts; debit and credit cards; business loans and commercial lending services; and digital banking services. Oregon Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Salem, Oregon.
Stock analysis
Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN) currently trades at $40.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.43, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $27.42 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $40.35 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.95, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.56 (bear) to $30.39 (bull), the price of $40.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Oregon Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $34.3M in FY2025 versus $91.5M in FY2021, a compound −21.8%/yr. Reported net income was $3.2M in FY2025, compounding −38.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $102M Micro · P/E ratio 39.2 · P/S ratio 4.82 · EPS (TTM) $1.03 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 12.4% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −47%, ORBN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$20.56Fair Value $21.43Bull$30.39
Price $40.35 · Downside -46.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1972 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−30.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−32.0% vs 4.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 12%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−46.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)12.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−29.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.43 versus a price of $40.35, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORBN?
Our model-based fair value for Oregon Bancorp Inc is $21.43 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.35.
What is the quality score of ORBN?
Oregon Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.43 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.56, optimistic scenario $30.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oregon Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.43, about 47% lower versus a price of $40.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.56, optimistic scenario $30.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
Oregon Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $21.1M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Oregon Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Oregon Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Oregon Bancorp Inc pays a dividend of $0.8 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2015. The payout ratio is 77.7% of earnings. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What is the intrinsic value of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oregon Bancorp Inc it is $21.43 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $40.35. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Oregon Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ORBN trades above its calculated fair value: price $40.35, fair value $21.43, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORBN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.43). For Oregon Bancorp Inc the two are $18.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oregon Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Oregon Bancorp Inc at about $102M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $40.35; our models calculate a fair value of $21.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORBN?
Our models span a range for Oregon Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $20.56, base $21.43, optimistic $30.39 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $40.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORBN?
Oregon Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.43 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.9. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 16.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oregon Bancorp Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORBN from its 52-week high?
Oregon Bancorp Inc trades at $40.35, at its 52-week high of $40.49 and 76% above the low of $22.89 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oregon Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oregon Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $40.35, calculated fair value $21.43 (−47%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORBN calculated?
We run Oregon Bancorp Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $21.43 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Oregon Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $40.35. Our model-based fair value is $21.43, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oregon Bancorp Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN) come from?
Earnings per share at Oregon Bancorp Inc grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin −3.7 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Oregon Bancorp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
The market capitalisation of Oregon Bancorp Inc is $102M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oregon Bancorp Inc is 4.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
Earnings per share at Oregon Bancorp Inc are $1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
The dividend yield of Oregon Bancorp Inc is 2.0% (payout 77.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
The net margin of Oregon Bancorp Inc is 12.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oregon Bancorp Inc is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oregon Bancorp Inc is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
The operating margin of Oregon Bancorp Inc is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
Revenue at Oregon Bancorp Inc is growing −29.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN)?
Earnings per share at Oregon Bancorp Inc are growing −34.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN) generate?
The free cash flow of Oregon Bancorp Inc is $3.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Oregon Bancorp Inc (ORBN) carry?
The net debt of Oregon Bancorp Inc is $4.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Oregon Bancorp Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Oregon Bancorp Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 8, 2026