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Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Origin Enterprises plc $11.07, price $5.28, upside +109.7%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN IE00B1WV4493

OE Origin Enterprises plc logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Origin Enterprises plc

ORENF · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $11.07 · Strongly undervalued (+109.7%)
✓Quality 62/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue YoY +3.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.3% dividend yield · Well covered
!Narrow moat 34/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.53 $2.50 Fair Value $11.07 Sep 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.50 – $5.53 · fair‑value band $7.69 – $14.75 · the $5.28 price screens below the $11.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Origin Enterprises plc provides agronomy services company in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Poland, Romania, Latin America, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Agriculture and Living Landscapes.

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Origin Enterprises plc provides agronomy services company in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Poland, Romania, Latin America, and internationally. It operates through two segments: Agriculture and Living Landscapes. The company provides integrated agronomy and on-farm services comprising agronomy advice, services, and inputs to arable, livestock, and fruit and vegetable growers; and seed, nutrition, biologicals, crop protection products; and digital tools and lab testing. It blends and distributes various fertilizers and nutrition products; and animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company offers a range of consultancy services; inputs and technical solutions in sports turf management, landscaping, and environmental conservation; advice, seeds, irrigation systems, nutrition, protection for sports professionals to protect their turf; line marking paint and equipment, and support for parking and recreation spaces for sports; and ecological and environmental services, such as planning consultancy, habitat management, and ecological assessments to organizations. Further, it engages in supply of professional-grade landscaping materials, including ground materials, reinforcement systems, drainage solutions, plants, trees, shrubs, and wholesale and B2C garden supplies to developers, construction contractors, architects, and landowners. Additionally, the company is involved in provender milling; manufacture and distribution of landscaping, forestry, and maintenance equipment; grain handling; ecology solutions; digital agricultural services group; property trading; IT implementation, maintaining, and licensing of software; grain and feed trading; and silo operation; as well as provides sports and amenities, turf management services, agricultural and construction inputs, and finance facilities and funding. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.

Stock analysis

Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF) currently trades at $5.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.07, implying the stock looks roughly 52.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $11.52 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the $5.28 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.06, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $7.69 (bear) to $14.75 (bull), the price of $5.28 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Origin Enterprises plc reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €1.7B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was €52.8M in FY2025, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $590M · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) $0.4300 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at 110%, ORENF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.69 Fair Value $11.07 Bull $14.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2570 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $6.90 $9.50 $12.75 79
Growth DCF $7.02 $9.36 $12.16 77
Owner Earnings $9.13 $12.53 $16.79 75
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $6.90 $9.50 $12.75 79
Owner Earnings $9.13 $12.53 $16.79 75
5Y Revenue Exit $7.23 $11.08 $15.82 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $9.48 $15.11 $21.43 72
5Y P/E Exit $7.15 $10.94 $14.72 69
10Y Revenue Exit $6.82 $10.03 $14.01 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $8.31 $12.53 $17.77 66
10Y P/E Exit $6.97 $9.94 $13.28 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.76 $9.24 $11.96 63
PEG = 1.0 $1.66 $2.38 $3.09 55
EPV $5.82 $6.65 $7.34 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.45 $2.38 $3.34 66
DDM Multi-Stage $1.45 $2.06 $2.64 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.70 $11.60 $14.50 63
P/S Multiple $7.04 $9.39 $11.74 58
P/B Multiple $7.04 $9.39 $11.74 55
EV/EBIT $11.29 $15.15 $19.01 66
EV/EBITDA $12.97 $17.38 $21.80 67
EV/Revenue $7.98 $11.52 $15.06 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.22 $2.98 $4.44 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $7.02 $9.36 $12.16 77
Rev-Margin DCF $7.23 $11.15 $15.41 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.95 $4.43 $5.52 74
ROIC Compounder $5.98 $7.14 $8.37 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $6.67 $9.53 $12.39 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.7% vs −0.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.1% a year for the price and −0.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.0%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 176 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9.3% · Above median
Return on assets 3.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.46× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.26× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 10.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Corteva, Inc CTVA $78.52 $28.63 −64%
Nutrien Ltd NTR $71.18 $83.09 +17%
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 ¥23.70 ¥26.81 +13%
CF Industries Holdings CF $115.51 $163.44 +41%
SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 123.60 SAR 150.65 SAR +22%
Yara International ASA YAR kr 433.10 kr 662.97 +53%
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 ¥27.56 ¥50.49 +83%
The Mosaic Company MOS $22.42 $25.77 +15%
ICL Group ICL $5.14 $2.98 −42%
Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL ₹1,964 ₹1,129 −43%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.07 versus a price of $5.28, about +110% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORENF?
Our model-based fair value for Origin Enterprises plc is $11.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.28.
What is the quality score of ORENF?
Origin Enterprises plc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.69, optimistic scenario $14.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Origin Enterprises plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.07, about +110% upside versus a price of $5.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.69, optimistic scenario $14.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
Origin Enterprises plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Origin Enterprises plc pay a dividend?
Origin Enterprises plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Origin Enterprises plc would have to grow free cash flow by -3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORENF use?
Our models discount Origin Enterprises plc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Origin Enterprises plc that is -3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Origin Enterprises plc grew +5.8 % a year. The price currently implies -3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Origin Enterprises plc (-3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.66 %: that much free cash flow Origin Enterprises plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Origin Enterprises plc it is $11.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.28. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Origin Enterprises plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ORENF trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.28, fair value $11.07, a gap of about +110% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORENF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.07). For Origin Enterprises plc the two are $5.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Origin Enterprises plc worth?
The market values Origin Enterprises plc at about $590M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.28; our models calculate a fair value of $11.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORENF?
Our models span a range for Origin Enterprises plc: cautious scenario $7.69, base $11.07, optimistic $14.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORENF?
Origin Enterprises plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Origin Enterprises plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORENF from its 52-week high?
Origin Enterprises plc trades at $5.28, about 5% below its 52-week high of $5.53 and 33% above the low of $3.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Origin Enterprises plc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Origin Enterprises plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.28, calculated fair value $11.07 (+110%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORENF calculated?
We run Origin Enterprises plc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Origin Enterprises plc currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $5.28. Our model-based fair value is $11.07, about +110% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Origin Enterprises plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($7.69 to $14.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF) come from?
Earnings per share at Origin Enterprises plc grew −2.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin −4.7 %, tax rate −1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Origin Enterprises plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
The market capitalisation of Origin Enterprises plc is $590M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Origin Enterprises plc is 0.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
Earnings per share at Origin Enterprises plc are $0.4300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
The dividend yield of Origin Enterprises plc is 3.3% (payout 40.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
The net margin of Origin Enterprises plc is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Origin Enterprises plc is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Origin Enterprises plc is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
The operating margin of Origin Enterprises plc is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
Revenue at Origin Enterprises plc is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF)?
Earnings per share at Origin Enterprises plc are growing −1.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Origin Enterprises plc (ORENF) carry?
The net debt of Origin Enterprises plc is €140M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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