Orzel SA (ORL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orzel SA stock PLN 1.56, price PLN 2.04, upside -23.5%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.1900 PLN – 4.18 PLN · the 2.04 PLN price screens above the 1.56 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 30, 2026.
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Orzel Spolka Akcyjna engages in the production of rubber granules that results from the recycling process of used tires. Its products include powder, infill, base, steel, and textile cords. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Poniatowa, Poland.
Stock analysis
Orzel SA (ORL) currently trades at 2.04 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.56 PLN, 23.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1.73 PLN per share, and 6 of the 20 models we run sit above the 2.04 PLN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.2700 PLN, and 14 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orzel SA reported revenue of 18.9M PLN in FY2025 versus 13.4M PLN in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was 269K PLN in FY2025, compounding −42.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 21.7M PLN (≈ $5.5M) Micro · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) −0.0900 PLN · Net margin −3.5% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8% · Operating margin 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −24%, ORL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear1.56 PLNFair Value 1.56 PLNBull1.56 PLN
Price 2.04 PLN · Upside -23.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−35.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2016 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−17% → 1%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 658 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−23.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.05× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orzel SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORL
Frequently asked questions
Is Orzel SA (ORL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.56 PLN versus a price of 2.04 PLN, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORL?
Our model-based fair value for Orzel SA is 1.56 PLN (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2.04 PLN.
What is the quality score of ORL?
Orzel SA has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orzel SA (ORL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.56 PLN (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 20 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orzel SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.56 PLN, about −24% upside versus a price of 2.04 PLN (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orzel SA (ORL)?
Orzel SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 19.6M PLN (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orzel SA (ORL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orzel SA would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.1 % per year. As of Oct 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORL use?
Our models discount Orzel SA at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orzel SA that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orzel SA (ORL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orzel SA grew +12.1 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orzel SA (ORL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orzel SA (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orzel SA (ORL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.24 %: that much free cash flow Orzel SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orzel SA (ORL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orzel SA it is 1.56 PLN per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of 2.04 PLN. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orzel SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, ORL trades above its calculated fair value: price 2.04 PLN, fair value 1.56 PLN, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2.04 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.56 PLN). For Orzel SA the two are 0.4800 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orzel SA worth?
The market values Orzel SA at about 21.7M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is 2.04 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 1.56 PLN per share.
What is the P/E ratio of ORL?
Orzel SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.56 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orzel SA (ORL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orzel SA (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 1.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORL from its 52-week high?
Orzel SA trades at 2.04 PLN, about 32% below its 52-week high of 3.00 PLN and at the low of 2.04 PLN (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.56 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orzel SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orzel SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price 2.04 PLN, calculated fair value 1.56 PLN (−24%), Quality Score 41/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORL calculated?
We run Orzel SA through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.56 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Orzel SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orzel SA (ORL)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was 2.04 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 1.56 PLN, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orzel SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.56 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Orzel SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Orzel SA (ORL)?
The market capitalisation of Orzel SA is 21.7M PLN (≈ $5.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orzel SA (ORL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orzel SA is 0.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orzel SA (ORL)?
Earnings per share at Orzel SA are −0.0900 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orzel SA (ORL)?
The net margin of Orzel SA is −3.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orzel SA (ORL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orzel SA is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orzel SA (ORL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orzel SA is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orzel SA (ORL)?
The operating margin of Orzel SA is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orzel SA (ORL)?
Revenue at Orzel SA is growing +20.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orzel SA (ORL)?
Earnings per share at Orzel SA are growing −95.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orzel SA (ORL) carry?
The net debt of Orzel SA is 18.1M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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