Orlen S.A (ORLNY) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $25.7B
Orlen S.A
ORLNY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $22.75 to $34.67 (+52.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +14.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($34.67). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (3 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
3‑month range $17.76 – $22.50 · the $21.67 price screens below the $34.67 fair value. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Orlen S.A (ORLNY) currently trades at $21.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.67, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.4%. Net debt stands at $8.5B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 14.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 60%, ORLNY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($208.16) versus Earnings-Based ($18.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business. It engages in the processing and wholesale of refinery products, such as crude oil; production and sale of fuel, oil, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as provision of supporting services; production, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat from …
Full company description
Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business. It engages in the processing and wholesale of refinery products, such as crude oil; production and sale of fuel, oil, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as provision of supporting services; production, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat from conventional and renewable energy sources comprising solar photovoltaics, as well as natural gas; trading of electricity; exploration and extraction of mineral resources; exploration, production, and import of natural gas; and trading and storage of gas and liquid gas. The company is also involved in the exploration, recognition, and extraction of hydrocarbons; fuel station activities; and provision of transportation, maintenance and overhaul, laboratory, security, design, administrative, courier, insurance, and financial services, as well as press distribution, and media activities, such as newspapers and websites. It offers petrol, diesel, LPG, and biofuels; aviation and marine fuels; heating oils; aromatics, including phenol, benzene, paraxylene, purified terephthalic acid, benzene-toulene fraction, and naphthalene concentrate; olefins; polyolefins comprising polyethylene; plastics, including polyvinyl chloride polanvil, compounds creovil, and PVC neralit; glycols; nitrogen fertilizers; and other products, such as acetone, ethylene oxide, masterbatch, advanced technical carbon black Chezacarb, caprolactam, soda lye, and sodium hypochlorite. In addition, the company provides base, car and motorbike, truck, marine, industrial, and agricultural oils, as well as paraffin and solvents; table, pickling, iodized table, feed, scrap, and industrial salt, as well as industrial salt brine and dishwasher salt granules; and bitumen. The company was formerly known as Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to Orlen S.A. in July 2023. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Plock, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orlen S.A reported revenue of $268B in FY2025 versus $282B in FY2022, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −60.0%/yr from FY2022.
Watch ORLNY: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$22.88 | C$7.97 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
Compare Orlen S.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Orlen S.A (ORLNY) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of ORLNY?
What is the quality score of ORLNY?
What is the net profit margin of ORLNY?
Does Orlen S.A pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Orlen S.A and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.