Orlen S.A (ORLNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Orlen S.A $22.29, price $22.00, upside +1.3%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business.
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Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business. It engages in the processing and wholesale of refinery products, such as crude oil; production and sale of fuel, oil, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as provision of supporting services; production, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat from conventional and renewable energy sources comprising solar photovoltaics, as well as natural gas; trading of electricity; exploration and extraction of mineral resources; exploration, production, and import of natural gas; and trading and storage of gas and liquid gas. The company is also involved in the exploration, recognition, and extraction of hydrocarbons; fuel station activities; and provision of transportation, maintenance and overhaul, laboratory, security, design, administrative, courier, insurance, and financial services, as well as press distribution, and media activities, such as newspapers and websites. It offers petrol, diesel, LPG, and biofuels; aviation and marine fuels; heating oils; aromatics, including phenol, benzene, paraxylene, purified terephthalic acid, benzene-toulene fraction, and naphthalene concentrate; olefins; polyolefins comprising polyethylene; plastics, including polyvinyl chloride polanvil, compounds creovil, and PVC neralit; glycols; nitrogen fertilizers; and other products, such as acetone, ethylene oxide, masterbatch, advanced technical carbon black Chezacarb, caprolactam, soda lye, and sodium hypochlorite. In addition, the company provides base, car and motorbike, truck, marine, industrial, and agricultural oils, as well as paraffin and solvents; table, pickling, iodized table, feed, scrap, and industrial salt, as well as industrial salt brine and dishwasher salt granules; and bitumen. The company was formerly known as Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to Orlen S.A. in July 2023. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Plock, Poland.
Stock analysis
Orlen S.A (ORLNY) currently trades at $22.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.29, implying the stock looks roughly 1.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $221.51 per share, and 20 of the 21 models we run sit above the $22.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $18.12, and 1 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Orlen S.A reported revenue of 268B PLN in FY2025 versus 282B PLN in FY2022, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding −60.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $25.5B · P/E ratio 14.5 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) $1.52 · Dividend yield 10.0% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 1%, ORLNY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.29Fair Value $22.29Bull $22.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.11 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−46.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−56.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 9%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orlen S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORLNY
Frequently asked questions
Is Orlen S.A (ORLNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.29 versus a price of $22.00, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ORLNY?
Our model-based fair value for Orlen S.A is $22.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.00.
What is the quality score of ORLNY?
Orlen S.A has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orlen S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.29, about +1% upside versus a price of $22.00 (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Orlen S.A pay a dividend?
Orlen S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orlen S.A it is $22.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $22.00. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orlen S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ORLNY trades below its calculated fair value: price $22.00, fair value $22.29, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORLNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.29). For Orlen S.A the two are $0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orlen S.A worth?
The market values Orlen S.A at about $25.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $22.00; our models calculate a fair value of $22.29 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of ORLNY?
Orlen S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.29 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, EV/EBITDA 0.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orlen S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Orlen S.A?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orlen S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $22.00, calculated fair value $22.29 (+1%), Quality Score 57/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORLNY calculated?
We run Orlen S.A through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Orlen S.A currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $22.00. Our model-based fair value is $22.29, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orlen S.A right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Orlen S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
The market capitalisation of Orlen S.A is $25.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orlen S.A is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
Earnings per share at Orlen S.A are $1.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
The dividend yield of Orlen S.A is 10.0% (payout 145%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
The net margin of Orlen S.A is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orlen S.A is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orlen S.A is 11.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
Revenue at Orlen S.A is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orlen S.A (ORLNY)?
Earnings per share at Orlen S.A are growing +94.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orlen S.A (ORLNY) generate?
The free cash flow of Orlen S.A is $17.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orlen S.A (ORLNY) carry?
The net debt of Orlen S.A is $8.5B (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026