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ORIX Corporation (ORXCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ORIX Corporation $57.99, price $36.45, upside +59.1%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN JP3200450009

OC ORIX Corporation logo Broad data Sep 29, 2026

ORIX Corporation

ORXCF · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $57.99 · Strongly undervalued (+59.1%)
✓Quality 67/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +17.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.6% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 54/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$41.49 $7.64 Fair Value $57.99 Jul 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.64 – $41.49 · fair‑value band $24.68 – $88.57 · the $36.45 price screens below the $57.99 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

ORIX Corporation provides financial services in Japan, the United States, Asia, Europe, and Australasia. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; and leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses.

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ORIX Corporation provides financial services in Japan, the United States, Asia, Europe, and Australasia. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; and leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses. Its Real Estate segment develops, rents, and manages real estate properties; operates facilities; provides real estate asset management services. The company's PE Investment and Concession segment engages in the private equity investment and concession businesses. Its Environment and Energy segment provides ESCO, and recycling and waste management services; retails electric power; sells solar panels; and generates renewable energy power. The company's Insurance segment sells life insurance products through agents, banks, and other financial institutions, as well as face-to-face and online. Its Banking and Credit segment provides banking and consumer finance services. The company's Aircraft and Ships segment engages in the aircraft investment and management, ship-related finance and investment, maritime asset management, and ship brokerage businesses. Its ORIX USA segment offers finance, investment, and asset management services. The company's ORIX Europe segment provides asset management services for equity and fixed income. Its Asia and Australia segment engages in the finance and investment businesses. The company was formerly known as Orient Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ORIX Corporation in 1989. ORIX Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

ORIX Corporation (ORXCF) currently trades at $36.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $57.99, implying the stock looks roughly 37.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $48.45 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $36.45 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $15.98, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $24.68 (bear) to $88.57 (bull), the price of $36.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

ORIX Corporation reported revenue of ¥3.4T in FY2026 versus ¥2.5T in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥451B in FY2026, compounding +9.2%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $41.6B · P/E ratio 14.6 · P/S ratio 1.97 · EPS (TTM) $2.49 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 13.5% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 59%, ORXCF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $24.68 Fair Value $57.99 Bull $88.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $75.34 $138.12 $238.37 76
Residual Income $22.98 $25.49 $32.37 76
Rev-Margin DCF $26.16 $48.45 $75.75 71
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $10.44 $33.24 $69.83 70
5Y P/E Exit $23.98 $43.12 $62.87 70
10Y P/E Exit $40.91 $62.74 $89.04 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $17.71 $65.39 $88.33 64
Lynch FV $15.66 $22.37 $29.08 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.12 $18.95 $30.07 66
DDM Multi-Stage $9.12 $15.98 $19.89 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $25.39 $33.85 $42.32 63
P/B Multiple $27.36 $36.48 $45.60 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $13.03 $17.46 $26.06 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $75.34 $138.12 $238.37 76
Rev-Margin DCF $26.16 $48.45 $75.75 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $22.98 $25.49 $32.37 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.2% (2021) → 21.8% (2026)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (81 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

Compare ORIX Corporation with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 52 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −13.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.4% · Above median
Return on assets 2.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 16.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 28.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.44× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.95× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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China Galaxy Securities Co 601881 ¥11.86 ¥11.49 −3%
Guosen Securities Co 002736 ¥9.84 ¥10.90 +11%
CNPC Capital Company 000617 ¥6.67 ¥7.03 +5%
Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL ₹390.00 ₹226.72 −42%
Freedom Holding FRHC $169.98 $23.80 −86%
Voya Financial, Inc VOYA $97.27 $46.47 −52%
Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 ¥7.26 ¥5.63 −22%
Bicecorp S.A BICE 422.70 CLP 261.70 CLP −38%

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ORIX Corporation · Fair Value
$57.99 +37%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ORIX Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORXCF

Frequently asked questions

Is ORIX Corporation (ORXCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $57.99 versus a price of $36.45, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORXCF?
Our model-based fair value for ORIX Corporation is $57.99 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.45.
What is the quality score of ORXCF?
ORIX Corporation has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $57.99 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.68, optimistic scenario $88.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ORIX Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $57.99, about +59% upside versus a price of $36.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $24.68, optimistic scenario $88.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
ORIX Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does ORIX Corporation pay a dividend?
ORIX Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ORIX Corporation it is $57.99 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $36.45. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ORIX Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, ORXCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $36.45, fair value $57.99, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORXCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($57.99). For ORIX Corporation the two are $21.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ORIX Corporation worth?
The market values ORIX Corporation at about $41.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $36.45; our models calculate a fair value of $57.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORXCF?
Our models span a range for ORIX Corporation: cautious scenario $24.68, base $57.99, optimistic $88.57 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $36.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORXCF?
ORIX Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $57.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ORIX Corporation (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORXCF from its 52-week high?
ORIX Corporation trades at $36.45, about 12% below its 52-week high of $41.49 and 61% above the low of $22.58 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $57.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ORIX Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Yuanta Financial Holding, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, China Galaxy Securities Co, Guosen Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ORIX Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $36.45, calculated fair value $57.99 (+59%), Quality Score 67/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORXCF calculated?
We run ORIX Corporation through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $57.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ORIX Corporation currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $36.45. Our model-based fair value is $57.99, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ORIX Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($24.68 to $88.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF) come from?
Earnings per share at ORIX Corporation grew +10.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.5 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of ORIX Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
The market capitalisation of ORIX Corporation is $41.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ORIX Corporation is 1.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
Earnings per share at ORIX Corporation are $2.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
The dividend yield of ORIX Corporation is 2.6% (payout 38.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
The net margin of ORIX Corporation is 13.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ORIX Corporation is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ORIX Corporation is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
The operating margin of ORIX Corporation is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
Revenue at ORIX Corporation is growing +28.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ORIX Corporation (ORXCF)?
Earnings per share at ORIX Corporation are growing −25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ORIX Corporation (ORXCF) generate?
The free cash flow of ORIX Corporation is ¥1.3T (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does ORIX Corporation (ORXCF) hold?
ORIX Corporation holds more cash than debt, ¥884B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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