Old Second Bancorp, Inc (OSBC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.1B
Old Second Bancorp, Inc
OSBC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +12.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.48 – $25.89 · fair‑value band $12.94 – $21.56 · the $25.44 price screens above the $17.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Old Second Bancorp, Inc (OSBC) currently trades at $25.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.26, implying the stock looks roughly 32.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Old Second Bancorp, Inc generated revenue of $325M at a net margin of 26.5%. Revenue grew 19.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. Net debt stands at $215M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.94 (bear case) to $21.56 (bull case); at $25.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -32%, OSBC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($20.30) versus Dividend Discount ($2.94). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services in the United States.
Full company description
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services in the United States. The company provides deposit products, including consumer and business checking, NOW, money market, savings, and other time deposit accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts. It also offers lending products, such as commercial and industrial loans; commercial real estate loans; multifamily loans; construction and development loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first mortgage and second mortgage loans; home equity lines of credit; consumer loans, including motor vehicle, home improvement, and signature loans; installment and agricultural loans; lease financing receivables and overdraft checking; and safe deposit operations. In addition, the company provides online and mobile banking; corporate cash management products, including remote and mobile deposits capture, investment sweep accounts, zero balance accounts, automated tax payments, automatic teller machines access, telephone banking, lockbox accounts, automated clearing house transactions, account reconciliation, controlled disbursement, detail and general information reporting, foreign and domestic wire transfers, and vault services for currency and coin; and investment, agency, and custodial services for individual, corporate, and not-for-profit clients. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Old Second Bancorp, Inc reported revenue of $397M in FY2025 versus $142M in FY2021, a compound +29.3%/yr. Reported net income was $80.3M in FY2025, compounding +41.5%/yr from FY2021.
OSBC screens 32% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Columbia Financial, Washington Trust Bancorp, and Old Second Bancorp Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know
- 2 Reasons to Watch OSBC and 1 to Stay Cautious
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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