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Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Old Second Bancorp Inc stock $15.33, price $24.40, that is 37.2% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

6 models, one by oneBear $14.44 to bull $17.30 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 51/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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Financial Services US

Broad data Nov 5, 2026

Old Second Bancorp Inc

OSBC · US

Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 37% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +23.3 %/yr in USD)

Highly profitable · 31.3% net margin (TTM)

1.1% dividend yield · Low payout

Broad data

Revenue last quarter +19% vs. a year ago.

Quality 51/100

Mixed vs. peers (7/15)

Wide moat 65/100 · thin data

Insiders bought $502 (6M) · sold $5.2M

Fair value $15.33 · Strongly overvalued (−37.2%)

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.58 – $25.83 · fair‑value band $14.44 – $17.30 · the $24.40 price screens above the $15.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services in the United States.

Show moreShow less

The company provides deposit products, including consumer and business checking, NOW, money market, savings, and other time deposit accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts.

It also offers lending products, such as commercial and industrial loans; commercial real estate loans; multifamily loans; construction and development loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first mortgage and second mortgage loans; home equity lines of credit; consumer loans, including motor vehicle, home improvement, and signature loans; installment and agricultural loans; lease financing receivables and overdraft checking; and safe deposit operations.

In addition, the company provides online and mobile banking; corporate cash management products, including remote and mobile deposits capture, investment sweep accounts, zero balance accounts, automated tax payments, automatic teller machines access, telephone banking, lockbox accounts, automated clearing house transactions, account reconciliation, controlled disbursement, detail and general information reporting, foreign and domestic wire transfers, and vault services for currency and coin; and investment, agency, and custodial services for individual, corporate, and not-for-profit clients.

The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) currently trades at $24.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.33, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.50 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $24.40 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.34, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $14.44 (bear) to $17.30 (bull), the price of $24.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Old Second Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $397M in FY2025 versus $142M in FY2021, a compound +29.3%/yr. Reported net income was $80.3M in FY2025, compounding +41.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $1.3B Small · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 3.57 · EPS (TTM) $2.14 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 31.3% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −37%, OSBC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $14.44 Fair Value $15.33 Bull $17.30

Price $24.40 · Downside -37.2%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.59 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income $14.44 $15.33 $17.30 76

Gordon GGM $1.93 $3.57 $5.02 67

DDM Multi-Stage $1.93 $3.10 $3.80 67

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $1.93 $3.57 $5.02 67

DDM Multi-Stage $1.93 $3.10 $3.80 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $15.39 $20.52 $25.65 63

P/B Multiple $15.35 $20.47 $25.59 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $7.31 $9.80 $14.62 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $14.44 $15.33 $17.30 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 32

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 42

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 92

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 6

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 58

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 80

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 59

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 77

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 67

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $502, on May 11, 2026. Over the same period, 5 people sold shares worth $5.2M.

SaleGary S CollinsVICE CHAIRMAN, Director6× since Mar 20, 2026: 73,274 shares, avg. $21.71$1.6MSep 23, 2026
SaleHugh H McLeanDirector2× since Sep 3, 2026: 50,000 shares, avg. $25.68$1.3MSep 8, 2026
SaleDarin Patrick CampbellPresident, Powersports Lending, Director3× since Feb 13, 2026: 59,091 shares, avg. $22.80$1.3MSep 2, 2026
SaleJames EccherCHAIRMAN AND CEO, Director2× since Aug 11, 2026: 75,000 shares, avg. $25.50$1.9MAug 12, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyBilly J Lyons Jr.Director24 shares at $20.90$502May 11, 2026
SaleDonald PilmerEVP25,000 shares at $20.75$518,750May 11, 2026
SaleRichard A Gartelmann JREVP2,000 shares at $20.98$41,960Feb 5, 2026
SaleJohn LadowiczDirector3× since Nov 26, 2025: 30,412 shares, avg. $19.72$599,735Jan 15, 2026

Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+18.1%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+15.9%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+23.3%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.1% a year

Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.9%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+11.3%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+10.2%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.2% vs 11.2%, steady

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 28%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

OSBC screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 51 · Below median

Fair Value upside −37.2% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 12.8% · Above median

Return on assets 1.2% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 31.3% · Above median

Operating margin (12 months) 44.9% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 19.2% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (12 months) 1.1% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.11× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 11.4× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.42× · Pricier than median

P/S (12 months) 3.57× · Pricier than median

Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 10.8× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 10.3× · Pricier than median

PEG 1.51× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8

FUTURE (revenue growth)96 · sector 47

PAST (return on equity)51 · sector 43

HEALTH (low debt)–

DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658	¥5.53	¥7.59	+37%	vs OSBC
China Merchants Bank Co 600036	¥42.88	¥52.73	+23%	vs OSBC
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€91.93	€106.01	+15%	vs OSBC
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.18	€4.49	−27%	vs OSBC
State Bank of India SBIN	₹1,019	₹736.65	−28%	vs OSBC
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€76.80	€50.44	−34%	vs OSBC
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$9.40	$5.90	−37%	vs OSBC
DBS Group D05	69.72 SGD	40.39 SGD	−42%	vs OSBC
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹788.25	₹406.39	−48%	vs OSBC
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,571	₹615.63	−61%	vs OSBC

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Frequently asked questions

Is Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.33 versus a price of $24.40, about 37% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of OSBC?

Our model-based fair value for Old Second Bancorp Inc is $15.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.40.

What is the quality score of OSBC?

Old Second Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.44, optimistic scenario $17.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Old Second Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $15.33, about 37% lower versus a price of $24.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.44, optimistic scenario $17.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

Old Second Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $356M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).

Does Old Second Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?

Old Second Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).

How much is the dividend of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) and when is the ex-dividend date?

Old Second Bancorp Inc pays a dividend of $0.28 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2016. The payout ratio is 13.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.

What is the intrinsic value of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Old Second Bancorp Inc it is $15.33 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $24.40. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).

Is Old Second Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 5, 2026, OSBC trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.40, fair value $15.33, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of OSBC?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.33). For Old Second Bancorp Inc the two are $9.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Old Second Bancorp Inc worth?

The market values Old Second Bancorp Inc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $24.40; our models calculate a fair value of $15.33 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OSBC?

Our models span a range for Old Second Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $14.44, base $15.33, optimistic $17.30 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $24.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of OSBC?

Old Second Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.4, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 10.3.

What is the PEG ratio of OSBC?

The PEG ratio of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 1.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

Balance-sheet figures for Old Second Bancorp Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is OSBC from its 52-week high?

Old Second Bancorp Inc trades at $24.40, about 6% below its 52-week high of $25.83 and 40% above the low of $17.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.33 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Old Second Bancorp Inc?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Old Second Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $24.40, calculated fair value $15.33 (−37%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of OSBC calculated?

We run Old Second Bancorp Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $15.33 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Old Second Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $24.40. Our model-based fair value is $15.33, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Old Second Bancorp Inc right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) come from?

Earnings per share at Old Second Bancorp Inc grew +15.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Old Second Bancorp Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

The market capitalisation of Old Second Bancorp Inc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 3.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

Earnings per share at Old Second Bancorp Inc are $2.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

The dividend yield of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 1.1% (payout 13.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

The net margin of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 31.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

The operating margin of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 44.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

Revenue at Old Second Bancorp Inc is growing +19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?

Earnings per share at Old Second Bancorp Inc are growing +211% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) generate?

The free cash flow of Old Second Bancorp Inc is $118M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) carry?

The net debt of Old Second Bancorp Inc is $215M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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