Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Old Second Bancorp Inc $12.91, price $24.55, upside -47.4%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.48 – $25.91 · fair‑value band $12.07 – $14.59 · the $24.55 price screens above the $12.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services in the United States.
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Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services in the United States. The company provides deposit products, including consumer and business checking, NOW, money market, savings, and other time deposit accounts, as well as certificates of deposit and individual retirement accounts. It also offers lending products, such as commercial and industrial loans; commercial real estate loans; multifamily loans; construction and development loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first mortgage and second mortgage loans; home equity lines of credit; consumer loans, including motor vehicle, home improvement, and signature loans; installment and agricultural loans; lease financing receivables and overdraft checking; and safe deposit operations. In addition, the company provides online and mobile banking; corporate cash management products, including remote and mobile deposits capture, investment sweep accounts, zero balance accounts, automated tax payments, automatic teller machines access, telephone banking, lockbox accounts, automated clearing house transactions, account reconciliation, controlled disbursement, detail and general information reporting, foreign and domestic wire transfers, and vault services for currency and coin; and investment, agency, and custodial services for individual, corporate, and not-for-profit clients. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) currently trades at $24.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.91, implying the stock looks roughly 90.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.30 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $24.55 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.94, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.07 (bear) to $14.59 (bull), the price of $24.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Old Second Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $397M in FY2025 versus $142M in FY2021, a compound +29.3%/yr. Reported net income was $80.3M in FY2025, compounding +41.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 2.97 · EPS (TTM) $1.67 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 20.2% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −47%, OSBC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.07Fair Value $12.91Bull $14.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.03 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.1% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 11%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.3% a year for the price and −4.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−47% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)26% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)43% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.7× · Pricier than median
P/B1.46× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.04× · Pricier than median
P/FCF11.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.7× · Pricier than median
PEG1.51× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)96· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Old Second Bancorp Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OSBC
Frequently asked questions
Is Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.91 versus a price of $24.55, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OSBC?
Our model-based fair value for Old Second Bancorp Inc is $12.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.55.
What is the quality score of OSBC?
Old Second Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.07, optimistic scenario $14.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Old Second Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.91, about −47% upside versus a price of $24.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.07, optimistic scenario $14.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
Old Second Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $325M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Old Second Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Old Second Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Old Second Bancorp Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OSBC use?
Our models discount Old Second Bancorp Inc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Old Second Bancorp Inc that is +2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Old Second Bancorp Inc grew +23.3 % a year. The price currently implies +2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Old Second Bancorp Inc (+2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.97 %: that much free cash flow Old Second Bancorp Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Old Second Bancorp Inc it is $12.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $24.55. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Old Second Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OSBC trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.55, fair value $12.91, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OSBC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.91). For Old Second Bancorp Inc the two are $11.64 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Old Second Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Old Second Bancorp Inc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $24.55; our models calculate a fair value of $12.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OSBC?
Our models span a range for Old Second Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $12.07, base $12.91, optimistic $14.59 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $24.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OSBC?
Old Second Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.5, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
What is the PEG ratio of OSBC?
The PEG ratio of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 1.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Old Second Bancorp Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OSBC from its 52-week high?
Old Second Bancorp Inc trades at $24.55, about 5% below its 52-week high of $25.91 and 49% above the low of $16.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Old Second Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Old Second Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $24.55, calculated fair value $12.91 (−47%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OSBC calculated?
We run Old Second Bancorp Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Old Second Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $24.55. Our model-based fair value is $12.91, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Old Second Bancorp Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) come from?
Earnings per share at Old Second Bancorp Inc grew +15.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.7 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Old Second Bancorp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
The market capitalisation of Old Second Bancorp Inc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 2.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
Earnings per share at Old Second Bancorp Inc are $1.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
The dividend yield of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 1.1% (payout 15.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
The net margin of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 20.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
The operating margin of Old Second Bancorp Inc is 42.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
Revenue at Old Second Bancorp Inc is growing +19.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC)?
Earnings per share at Old Second Bancorp Inc are growing +11.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Old Second Bancorp Inc (OSBC) carry?
The net debt of Old Second Bancorp Inc is $215M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026