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Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Sep 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US69036R8631

OS Octave Specialty Group, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Octave Specialty Group, Inc.

OSG · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $8.49 · Strongly undervalued (+105%)
!Quality 44/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -75.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.33 $3.94 Fair Value $8.49 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.94 – $18.33 · fair‑value band $5.02 – $11.11 · the $4.15 price screens below the $8.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Octave Specialty Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, primarily engages in the specialty property and casualty insurance business in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance; and Insurance Distribution.

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Octave Specialty Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, primarily engages in the specialty property and casualty insurance business in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance; and Insurance Distribution. The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment provides specialty property and casualty program insurance with a focus on commercial and personal liability risks. The Insurance Distribution segment offers property, niche specialty risk, accident and health, miscellaneous specialty, reinsurance, surety, marine and energy, specialty auto, excess and surplus lines commercial package, professional lines, and directors' and officers' insurance. The company was formerly known as Ambac Financial Group, Inc. and changed its name to Octave Specialty Group, Inc. in November 2025. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) currently trades at $4.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.49, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $5.02 (bear) to $11.11 (bull), the price of $4.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Octave Specialty Group, Inc. reported revenue of $251M in FY2025 versus $247M in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$241M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $259M · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) $−2.03 · Net margin −95.9% · Return on equity −7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Operating margin 2.8% · Revenue (TTM) $293M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 105%, OSG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.02 Fair Value $8.49 Bull $11.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $7.95 $10.65 $15.90 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.95 $10.65 $15.90 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 77
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 26/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+67.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−282.1% (2020) → −40.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 30 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +105% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −76% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 66% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.36× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.89× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 62
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 56

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF $42.55 $29.08 −32%
AXIS Capital Holdings AXS $96.28 $125.88 +31%
First American Financial Corporation FAF $69.24 $52.74 −24%
Enact Holdings ACT $47.61 $45.58 −4%
MGIC Investment Corporation MTG $29.29 $31.40 +7%
Essent Group ESNT $65.70 $68.42 +4%
Radian Group RDN $34.69 $39.97 +15%
Protector Forsikring ASA PROT kr 424.00 kr 273.28 −36%
Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO $70.74 $117.95 +67%
NMI Holdings NMIH $42.42 $46.94 +11%

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Octave Specialty Group, Inc. · Fair Value
$8.49 +51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Octave Specialty Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OSG

Frequently asked questions

Is Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.49 versus a price of $4.15, about +105% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OSG?
Our model-based fair value for Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is $8.49 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.15.
What is the quality score of OSG?
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.49 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.02, optimistic scenario $11.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Octave Specialty Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.49, about +105% upside versus a price of $4.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.02, optimistic scenario $11.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $293M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Octave Specialty Group, Inc. it is $8.49 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $4.15. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Octave Specialty Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, OSG trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.15, fair value $8.49, a gap of about +105% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OSG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.49). For Octave Specialty Group, Inc. the two are $4.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Octave Specialty Group, Inc. worth?
The market values Octave Specialty Group, Inc. at about $259M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $4.15; our models calculate a fair value of $8.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OSG?
Our models span a range for Octave Specialty Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $5.02, base $8.49, optimistic $11.11 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $4.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −7.5%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OSG from its 52-week high?
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. trades at $4.15, about 59% below its 52-week high of $10.08 and 5% above the low of $3.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Octave Specialty Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, Enact Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Octave Specialty Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $4.15, calculated fair value $8.49 (+105%), Quality Score 44/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OSG calculated?
We run Octave Specialty Group, Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Octave Specialty Group, Inc. currently trades 105 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.15. Our model-based fair value is $8.49, about +105% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Octave Specialty Group, Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.02). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($5.02 to $11.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Octave Specialty Group, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
The market capitalisation of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is $259M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is 0.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
Earnings per share at Octave Specialty Group, Inc. are $−2.03. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
The net margin of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is −95.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is −7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
The operating margin of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG)?
Revenue at Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is growing +66.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +67.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) generate?
The free cash flow of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is −$52.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) carry?
The net debt of Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is $49.1M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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