Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial and defense industry vehicles in Turkey. It offers light trucks, wheeled and tracked armored vehicles, and turrets for the defense industry.
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Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial and defense industry vehicles in Turkey. It offers light trucks, wheeled and tracked armored vehicles, and turrets for the defense industry. The company also provides pick-up type vehicles; minibuses, small buses, and regular buses for public transportation; wheeled and tracked armored vehicles; shuttle transportation; tactical wheeled vehicles, and turrets. The company was incorporated in 1963 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) currently trades at 313.50 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 164.98 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 90.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of 158.64 TRY per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the 313.50 TRY price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 20.86 TRY, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 34.48 TRY (bear) to 164.98 TRY (bull), the price of 313.50 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS reported revenue of 52.0B TRL in FY2025 versus 4.5B TRL in FY2021, a compound +84.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5B TRL in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 37.6B TRY (≈ $775M) · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) −20.44 TRY · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin −2.8% · Return on equity −30.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% · Operating margin −22.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −47%, OTKAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 34.48 TRYFair Value 164.98 TRYBull 164.98 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.0%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
21.9% (2020) → 2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−36% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−22% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.09× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA34.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)15· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)65· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OTKAR
Frequently asked questions
Is Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 164.98 TRY versus a price of 313.50 TRY, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OTKAR?
Our model-based fair value for Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 164.98 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 313.50 TRY.
What is the quality score of OTKAR?
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 164.98 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 34.48 TRY, optimistic scenario 164.98 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 164.98 TRY, about −47% upside versus a price of 313.50 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 34.48 TRY, optimistic scenario 164.98 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 51.1B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS pay a dividend?
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +59.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +78.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTKAR use?
Our models discount Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS that is +59.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS grew +78.0 % a year. The price currently implies +59.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (+59.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.40 %: that much free cash flow Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS it is 164.98 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 313.50 TRY. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, OTKAR trades above its calculated fair value: price 313.50 TRY, fair value 164.98 TRY, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTKAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (313.50 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (164.98 TRY). For Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS the two are 148.52 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS at about 37.6B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 313.50 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 164.98 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTKAR?
Our models span a range for Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 34.48 TRY, base 164.98 TRY, optimistic 164.98 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 313.50 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −30.2%, debt of 1.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTKAR from its 52-week high?
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS trades at 313.50 TRY, about 46% below its 52-week high of 584.00 TRY and 4% above the low of 301.25 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 164.98 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 313.50 TRY, calculated fair value 164.98 TRY (−47%), Quality Score 34/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTKAR calculated?
We run Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 164.98 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The closing price on Sep 14, 2026 was 313.50 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 164.98 TRY, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (164.98 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (34.48 TRY to 164.98 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The market capitalisation of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 37.6B TRY (≈ $775M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 0.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Earnings per share at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS are −20.44 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The dividend yield of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 3.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The net margin of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is −2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is −30.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The operating margin of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is −22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Revenue at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is growing −8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +75.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Earnings per share at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS are growing +3.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) carry?
The net debt of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 27.7B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 52.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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