Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS stock TRY 492, price TRY 308, upside +60.0%, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 56.47 TRY – 659.00 TRY · fair‑value band 378.63 TRY – 592.09 TRY · the 307.50 TRY price screens below the 492.00 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi A.S., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells commercial and defense industry vehicles in Turkey. It offers light trucks, wheeled and tracked armored vehicles, and turrets for the defense industry.
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The company also provides pick-up type vehicles; minibuses, small buses, and regular buses for public transportation; wheeled and tracked armored vehicles; shuttle transportation; tactical wheeled vehicles, and turrets. The company was incorporated in 1963 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) currently trades at 307.50 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 492.00 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 335.19 TRY per share, and 4 of the 8 models we run sit above the 307.50 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 100.05 TRY, and 4 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 378.63 TRY (bear) to 592.09 TRY (bull), the price of 307.50 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS reported revenue of 52.0B TRL in FY2025 versus 4.5B TRL in FY2021, a compound +84.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5B TRL in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 36.9B TRY (≈ $739M) Small · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) −48.89 TRY · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin −12.5% · Return on equity −79.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% · Operating margin −12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 11 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 60%, OTKAR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear378.63 TRYFair Value 492.00 TRYBull592.09 TRY
Price 307.50 TRY · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+78.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +43.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
21.9% (2020) → 2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.5% a year for the price.
Compare Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−12.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−12.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−27.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.32× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OTKAR
Frequently asked questions
Is Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 492.00 TRY versus a price of 307.50 TRY, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OTKAR?
Our model-based fair value for Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 492.00 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 307.50 TRY.
What is the quality score of OTKAR?
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 492.00 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario 378.63 TRY, optimistic scenario 592.09 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 492.00 TRY, about +60% upside versus a price of 307.50 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 378.63 TRY, optimistic scenario 592.09 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 46.9B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
Does Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS pay a dividend?
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS currently shows a dividend yield of 3.25% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +59.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +78.0 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTKAR use?
Our models discount Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS that is +59.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS grew +78.0 % a year. The price currently implies +59.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (+59.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.43 %: that much free cash flow Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS it is 492.00 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 307.50 TRY. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, OTKAR trades below its calculated fair value: price 307.50 TRY, fair value 492.00 TRY, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTKAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (307.50 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (492.00 TRY). For Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS the two are 184.50 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS at about 36.9B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 307.50 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 492.00 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTKAR?
Our models span a range for Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 378.63 TRY, base 492.00 TRY, optimistic 592.09 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 307.50 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity −79.5%, debt of 1.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTKAR from its 52-week high?
Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS trades at 307.50 TRY, about 42% below its 52-week high of 530.00 TRY and 13% above the low of 273.00 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 492.00 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 307.50 TRY, calculated fair value 492.00 TRY (+60%), Quality Score 31/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTKAR calculated?
We run Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 492.00 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 307.50 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 492.00 TRY, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (378.63 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The market capitalisation of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 36.9B TRY (≈ $739M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 0.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Earnings per share at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS are −48.89 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The dividend yield of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 3.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The net margin of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is −12.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is −79.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
The operating margin of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is −12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Revenue at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is growing −27.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +75.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR)?
Earnings per share at Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS are growing +3.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS (OTKAR) carry?
The net debt of Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi AS is 27.7B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 52.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 29, 2026