OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of OTP Bank Nyrt HUF 43,611, price HUF 45,870, upside -4.9%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6,949 HUF – 47,250 HUF · fair‑value band 32,708 HUF – 54,513 HUF · the 45,870 HUF price screens above the 43,611 HUF fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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OTP Bank Nyrt., together with its subsidiaries, provides various commercial banking services.
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OTP Bank Nyrt., together with its subsidiaries, provides various commercial banking services. The company offers retail banking services, including account management comprising forint account packages, inheritance administration, and foreign currency accounts; debit cards; internet and mobile banking; direkt telephone banking services; and deposits and securities accounts. It also provides corporate banking services, such as account opening, authenticated electronic bank account statements, cash management solutions, business cards, HUF and foreign currency loans, bank guarantees, special agricultural loans, factoring, European union grants, leasing, specialized lending/project financing, syndicated lending and international financing, and forfaiting and buyer's credits; securities account, stock exchange transaction orders, investment fund shares, and government securities; and global markets services, capital market solutions, private banking, and global securities services. In addition, the company is involved in refinancing activities; mortgage lending; real estate management and development; finance and real estate lease; housing savings and loans; fund management; and fund services. The company operates through a network of branches in Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine, Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, Slovenia, and Uzbekistan, as well as provides other services in the Netherlands and Malta. OTP Bank Nyrt. was founded in 1949 and is based in Budapest, Hungary.
Stock analysis
OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP) currently trades at 45,870 HUF, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 43,611 HUF, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 38,857 HUF per share, and 1 of the 4 models we run sit above the 45,870 HUF price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 14,806 HUF, and 3 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 32,708 HUF (bear) to 54,513 HUF (bull), the price of 45,870 HUF sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
OTP Bank Nyrt reported revenue of 3.1T HUF in FY2025 versus 1.4T HUF in FY2021, a compound +22.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1T HUF in FY2025, compounding +25.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 11.6T HUF (≈ $36.2B) · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 3.85 · EPS (TTM) 4,331 HUF · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 36.4% · Return on equity 20.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −5%, OTP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 32,708 HUFFair Value 43,611 HUFBull 54,513 HUF
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,377 HUF per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in HUF ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in HUF: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.0% vs 24.5%, steady
Profit margin 2017 to 2022 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 76%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hungary: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.3% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1039 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−4.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)37.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)54.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "OTP Bank Nyrt Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OTP
Frequently asked questions
Is OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 43,611 HUF versus a price of 45,870 HUF, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of OTP?
Our model-based fair value for OTP Bank Nyrt is 43,611 HUF (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 45,870 HUF.
What is the quality score of OTP?
OTP Bank Nyrt has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 43,611 HUF (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 32,708 HUF, optimistic scenario 54,513 HUF. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OTP Bank Nyrt stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 43,611 HUF, about −5% upside versus a price of 45,870 HUF (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 32,708 HUF, optimistic scenario 54,513 HUF. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
OTP Bank Nyrt reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0T HUF (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does OTP Bank Nyrt pay a dividend?
OTP Bank Nyrt currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, OTP Bank Nyrt would have to grow free cash flow by +28.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTP use?
Our models discount OTP Bank Nyrt at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for Hungary. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For OTP Bank Nyrt that is +28.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at OTP Bank Nyrt grew +20.6 % a year. The price currently implies +28.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into OTP Bank Nyrt (+28.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.08 %: that much free cash flow OTP Bank Nyrt produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OTP Bank Nyrt it is 43,611 HUF per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 45,870 HUF. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OTP Bank Nyrt stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, OTP trades above its calculated fair value: price 45,870 HUF, fair value 43,611 HUF, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (45,870 HUF); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (43,611 HUF). For OTP Bank Nyrt the two are 2,259 HUF per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OTP Bank Nyrt worth?
The market values OTP Bank Nyrt at about 11.6T HUF (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 45,870 HUF; our models calculate a fair value of 43,611 HUF per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTP?
Our models span a range for OTP Bank Nyrt: cautious scenario 32,708 HUF, base 43,611 HUF, optimistic 54,513 HUF per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 45,870 HUF). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OTP?
OTP Bank Nyrt trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 43,611 HUF is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
Balance-sheet figures for OTP Bank Nyrt (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 20.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTP from its 52-week high?
OTP Bank Nyrt trades at 45,870 HUF, about 3% below its 52-week high of 47,250 HUF and 64% above the low of 27,902 HUF (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 43,611 HUF is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OTP Bank Nyrt?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OTP Bank Nyrt stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 45,870 HUF, calculated fair value 43,611 HUF (−5%), Quality Score 51/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTP calculated?
We run OTP Bank Nyrt through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 43,611 HUF, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. OTP Bank Nyrt itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 45,870 HUF. Our model-based fair value is 43,611 HUF, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OTP Bank Nyrt right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP) come from?
Earnings per share at OTP Bank Nyrt grew +14.4 % a year from 2011 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin −4.2 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +13.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of OTP Bank Nyrt
How large is the market capitalisation of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
The market capitalisation of OTP Bank Nyrt is 11.6T HUF (≈ $36.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OTP Bank Nyrt is 3.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
Earnings per share at OTP Bank Nyrt are 4,331 HUF (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
The dividend yield of OTP Bank Nyrt is 2.5% (payout 26.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
The net margin of OTP Bank Nyrt is 36.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OTP Bank Nyrt is 20.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OTP Bank Nyrt is 2.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
The operating margin of OTP Bank Nyrt is 54.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
Revenue at OTP Bank Nyrt is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP)?
Earnings per share at OTP Bank Nyrt are growing −6.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does OTP Bank Nyrt (OTP) hold?
OTP Bank Nyrt holds more cash than debt, 4.3T HUF net (fiscal year 2022). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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