Ovzon AB (OVZON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ovzon AB SEK 40.50, price SEK 36.82, upside +10.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 5.33 – kr 69.40 · fair‑value band kr 27.98 – kr 52.65 · the kr 36.82 price screens below the kr 40.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ovzon AB (publ) provides mobile satellite communication services in Sweden, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally.
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Ovzon AB (publ) provides mobile satellite communication services in Sweden, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. The company offers satellite communication (SATCOM)-as-a-service products comprising Ovzon Orion for command and control, ISR, and sovereign network operations; Ovzon Pegasus for airborne, tactical, and expeditionary operations; Ovzon Hero for high mobility requirements; Ovzon Go for public safety, emergency response, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs); and Ovzon Plus for field operations, short-term deployments, media, and emergency use. It also provides on-the-pause mobile satellite terminals, such as Ovzon T7 and Ovzon T6; on-the-move mobile satellite terminals, including Ovzon P20, Ovzon P30, and Ovzon T8; and internet gateway access, terrestrial backbone connectivity, and customer support and training services. The company's products and services are built on Ovzon 3, its geostationary satellite. It serves the defense, national security, public safety, and maritime industries, as well as governments and NGOs. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Ovzon AB (OVZON) currently trades at kr 36.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 40.50, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 54.58 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 36.82 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 8.96, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 27.98 (bear) to kr 52.65 (bull), the price of kr 36.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ovzon AB reported revenue of 735M SEK in FY2025 versus 191M SEK in FY2021, a compound +40.0%/yr. Reported net income was 137M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 4.8B SEK (≈ $488M) · P/E ratio 19.7 · P/S ratio 3.67 · EPS (TTM) kr 1.87 · Net margin 18.6% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5% · Operating margin 30.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 10%, OVZON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 27.98Fair Value kr 40.50Bull kr 52.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.37 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+120.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs −3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−30% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 17.0%/yr over ~8Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.5% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth188% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ovzon AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OVZON
Frequently asked questions
Is Ovzon AB (OVZON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 40.50 versus a price of kr 36.82, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OVZON?
Our model-based fair value for Ovzon AB is kr 40.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 36.82.
What is the quality score of OVZON?
Ovzon AB has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 40.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 27.98, optimistic scenario kr 52.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ovzon AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 40.50, about +10% upside versus a price of kr 36.82 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 27.98, optimistic scenario kr 52.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
Ovzon AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 912M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ovzon AB would have to grow free cash flow by +10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OVZON use?
Our models discount Ovzon AB at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.66, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ovzon AB that is +10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ovzon AB (OVZON) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ovzon AB grew +35.6 % a year. The price currently implies +10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ovzon AB (OVZON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ovzon AB (+10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.25 %: that much free cash flow Ovzon AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ovzon AB it is kr 40.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 36.82. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ovzon AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OVZON trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 36.82, fair value kr 40.50, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OVZON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 36.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 40.50). For Ovzon AB the two are kr 3.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ovzon AB worth?
The market values Ovzon AB at about 4.8B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 36.82; our models calculate a fair value of kr 40.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OVZON?
Our models span a range for Ovzon AB: cautious scenario kr 27.98, base kr 40.50, optimistic kr 52.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 36.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OVZON?
Ovzon AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 40.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 12.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ovzon AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OVZON from its 52-week high?
Ovzon AB trades at kr 36.82, about 47% below its 52-week high of kr 69.40 and 20% above the low of kr 30.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 40.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ovzon AB?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ovzon AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 36.82, calculated fair value kr 40.50 (+10%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OVZON calculated?
We run Ovzon AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 40.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ovzon AB currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 36.82. Our model-based fair value is kr 40.50, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ovzon AB right now?
A fairly wide model range (kr 27.98 to kr 52.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Ovzon AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
The market capitalisation of Ovzon AB is 4.8B SEK (≈ $488M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ovzon AB is 3.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
Earnings per share at Ovzon AB are kr 1.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
The net margin of Ovzon AB is 18.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ovzon AB is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ovzon AB is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
The operating margin of Ovzon AB is 30.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ovzon AB (OVZON)?
Revenue at Ovzon AB is growing +188% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Ovzon AB (OVZON) carry?
The net debt of Ovzon AB is 265M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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