PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PagSeguro Digital Ltd stock $33.84, price $11.28, upside +200.0%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.57 – $54.78 · fair‑value band $23.69 – $43.99 · the $11.28 price screens below the $33.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally.
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The company provides digital banking solutions, including bill payments, deposits, top-ups, debt management, direct deposits, pix, tax collections, tax collections, wire transfer, and ATM withdrawal; cards, such as debit, credit, cash, and prepaid cards; and credit products comprising FGTS withdrawals, payroll loans, working capital loans, and overdraft accounts.
It offers insurance services, including account, card, home, business, health assistance, life, and credit life insurance; investment services, such as recommendation from our distribution team, financial education, stocks and REITs, investment, PagBank CD, Third-party fixed income, treasury, automatic savings and money boxes; and operates cashback and Shopping PagBank, a marketplace for various brands.
In addition, it provides software solutions comprising PagVendas, a POS software app; ClubPag, a marketing tool that allows merchants to advertise across client base, available for POS devices; PlugPag, a wireless solution that connects the machine to the commercial automation system, via Bluetooth technology; and Envio Fácil, a logistics solution for online sales.
The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) currently trades at $11.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.84, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $77.70 per share, and 22 of the 25 models we run sit above the $11.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.67, and 3 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.69 (bear) to $43.99 (bull), the price of $11.28 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd reported revenue of R$19.4B in FY2025 versus R$10.3B in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$2.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.2B Mid · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) $1.44 · Dividend yield 12.0% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 200%, PAGS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$23.69Fair Value $33.84Bull$43.99
Price $11.28 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0689 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +40.1% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+24.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.2% vs 51.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 38%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.1% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 348 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.5% · Above median
Return on assets2.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)10.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)36.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)12.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PagSeguro Digital Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAGS
Frequently asked questions
Is PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.84 versus a price of $11.28, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PAGS?
Our model-based fair value for PagSeguro Digital Ltd is $33.84 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.28.
What is the quality score of PAGS?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.84 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.69, optimistic scenario $43.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PagSeguro Digital Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.84, about +200% upside versus a price of $11.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $23.69, optimistic scenario $43.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$19.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does PagSeguro Digital Ltd pay a dividend?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 12.01% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PagSeguro Digital Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +15.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.7 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAGS use?
Our models discount PagSeguro Digital Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PagSeguro Digital Ltd that is +15.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PagSeguro Digital Ltd grew +23.7 % a year. The price currently implies +15.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PagSeguro Digital Ltd (+15.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 49.31 %: that much free cash flow PagSeguro Digital Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PagSeguro Digital Ltd it is $33.84 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of $11.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PagSeguro Digital Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, PAGS trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.28, fair value $33.84, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.84). For PagSeguro Digital Ltd the two are $22.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PagSeguro Digital Ltd worth?
The market values PagSeguro Digital Ltd at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is $11.28; our models calculate a fair value of $33.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAGS?
Our models span a range for PagSeguro Digital Ltd: cautious scenario $23.69, base $33.84, optimistic $43.99 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price $11.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAGS?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
Balance-sheet figures for PagSeguro Digital Ltd (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAGS from its 52-week high?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd trades at $11.28, about 4% below its 52-week high of $11.72 and 38% above the low of $8.19 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PagSeguro Digital Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PagSeguro Digital Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price $11.28, calculated fair value $33.84 (+200%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAGS calculated?
We run PagSeguro Digital Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. PagSeguro Digital Ltd currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $11.28. Our model-based fair value is $33.84, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PagSeguro Digital Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($23.69 to $43.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) come from?
Earnings per share at PagSeguro Digital Ltd grew +46.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +43.2 %, EBIT margin +9.3 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PagSeguro Digital Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
The market capitalisation of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is $3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
Earnings per share at PagSeguro Digital Ltd are $1.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
The dividend yield of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is 12.0% (payout 94.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
The net margin of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
The operating margin of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is 36.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
Revenue at PagSeguro Digital Ltd is growing −0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
Earnings per share at PagSeguro Digital Ltd are growing +10.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) carry?
The net debt of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is $42.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 27.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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