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PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $2.6B · ISIN KYG687071012

What is PagSeguro Digital Ltd really worth?

PD PagSeguro Digital Ltd logo PagSeguro Digital Ltd PAGS · US
Price$9.96
Fair Value$28.13
Upside+182.4%
Quality54/100

A solid business, trading 65% below our fair value of $28.13.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +23.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.8% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (12/14)
✓Wide moat 66/100

Risks

!Weak on future: 8 out of 100

For context

·13.30% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $21.09 – $35.16

Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 31, 2026, revised from $28.43 to $28.13 (−1.1%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +4.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($21.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$56.42 $5.73 Fair Value $28.13 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.73 – $56.42 · fair‑value band $21.09 – $35.16 · the $9.96 price screens below the $28.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

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Analysis

PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) currently trades at $9.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.13, implying the stock looks roughly 64.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $241.25 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $9.96 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $30.71, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, PagSeguro Digital Ltd generated revenue of R$19.8B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.5%. Net debt stands at $42.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $21.09 (bear case) to $35.16 (bull case); at $9.96, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 182%, PAGS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0508 per share. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $57.40 $102.19 $241.83 72
EPV $174.00 $205.52 $232.71 72
Growth DCF $52.35 $114.52 $236.20 71
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $57.40 $102.19 $241.83 72
Owner Earnings $115.44 $286.96 $633.81 69
5Y Revenue Exit $62.90 $133.28 $281.04 66
5Y EBITDA Exit $216.58 $443.94 $891.32 69
5Y P/E Exit $79.21 $215.11 $401.40 65
10Y Revenue Exit $59.02 $172.54 $248.65 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $172.20 $495.88 $1,086 61
10Y P/E Exit $74.21 $206.85 $427.31 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $47.41 $330.63 $463.99 60
Lynch FV $134.90 $192.71 $250.52 58
PEG = 1.0 $134.90 $192.71 $250.52 55
EPV $174.00 $205.52 $232.71 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $17.84 $35.54 $53.82 64
DDM Multi-Stage $17.84 $30.71 $37.52 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $109.81 $146.41 $183.02 61
P/S Multiple $88.89 $118.52 $148.16 56
P/B Multiple $88.89 $118.52 $148.16 53
EV/EBIT $285.44 $389.12 $492.80 64
EV/EBITDA $270.26 $368.88 $467.49 66
EV/Revenue $56.28 $91.37 $126.46 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $24.56 $32.91 $49.12 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $52.35 $114.52 $236.20 71
Rev-Margin DCF $65.84 $156.02 $330.38 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income $47.38 $59.80 $147.36 68
ROIC Compounder $234.30 $356.91 $513.59 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $168.88 $241.25 $313.63 66

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($241.25) versus Dividend Discount ($30.71). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (72).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.4 as of Jun 3, 2026
P/S ratio 0.68 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.45 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4
Dividend yield 13.3% payout 91.4%
Net margin 10.7% FY2025
Return on equity 14.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 37.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) R$19.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.5% 3y avg +8.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +12.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.6B FY2025
Net debt $42.5B FY2025 · ≈ 27.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 52
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally.

Full company description

PagSeguro Digital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial and payment solutions for consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and internationally. The company provides digital banking solutions, including bill payments, deposits, top-ups, debt management, direct deposits, pix, tax collections, tax collections, wire transfer, and ATM withdrawal; cards, such as debit, credit, cash, and prepaid cards; and credit products comprising FGTS withdrawals, payroll loans, working capital loans, and overdraft accounts. It offers insurance services, including account, card, home, business, health assistance, life, and credit life insurance; investment services, such as recommendation from our distribution team, financial education, stocks and REITs, investment, PagBank CD, Third-party fixed income, treasury, automatic savings and money boxes; and operates cashback and Shopping PagBank, a marketplace for various brands. In addition, it provides software solutions comprising PagVendas, a POS software app; ClubPag, a marketing tool that allows merchants to advertise across client base, available for POS devices; PlugPag, a wireless solution that connects the machine to the commercial automation system, via Bluetooth technology; and Envio Fácil, a logistics solution for online sales. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PagSeguro Digital Ltd reported revenue of R$19.4B in FY2025 versus R$10.3B in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$2.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$19.4B
Latest YoY
+5.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (11Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+45.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.5% (12.2 + 13.3)
Revenue +17.1%/yr
FY21 R$10.3B
FY22 R$15.2B
FY23 R$15.7B
FY24 R$18.3B
FY25 R$19.4B
Net income +15.5%/yr
FY21 R$1.2B
FY22 R$1.5B
FY23 R$1.7B
FY24 R$2.1B
FY25 R$2.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +46.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +43.2 %

of which total revenue +43.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin +9.3 %
Tax rate +0.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −6.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PagSeguro Digital Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAGS

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 384 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +182% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Above median
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 13.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.65× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.90× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.66× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 1
FUTURE8 · sector 49
PAST58 · sector 13
HEALTH68 · sector 98
DIVIDEND100 · sector 26

Insider activity: 66/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).

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Oracle Corporation ORCL $151.94 $117.84 −22%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $166.00 $61.46 −63%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $442.61 $101.19 −77%
Block, Inc XYZ A$111.01 A$70.69 −36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $105.26 $71.79 −32%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $190.64 $154.83 −19%
Adyen N.V ADYEN €1,007 €707.53 −30%
MongoDB, Inc MDB $440.58 $93.91 −79%
Okta, Inc OKTA $166.23 $30.50 −82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.13 versus a price of $9.96, about +182% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PAGS?
Our model-based fair value for PagSeguro Digital Ltd is $28.13 (as of Aug 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.96.
What is the quality score of PAGS?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PagSeguro Digital Ltd (PAGS)?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$19.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PAGS?
The net profit margin of PagSeguro Digital Ltd is about 10.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PagSeguro Digital Ltd pay a dividend?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.30% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 31, 2026).
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