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Pampa Energia SA (PAM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Pampa Energia SA $64.62, price $76.39, upside -15.4%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ADR · Home Argentina · ISIN US6976602077

PE Pampa Energia SA logo Broad data Oct 2, 2026

Pampa Energia SA

PAM · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $64.62 · Overvalued (−15.4%)
!Quality 49/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.3% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 59/100
!Insider activity 44/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$94.88 $14.89 Fair Value $64.62 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.89 – $94.88 · fair‑value band $57.98 – $86.79 · the $76.39 price screens above the $64.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Pampa Energía S.A. operates as an integrated power company in Argentina. The company operates through Oil and Gas; Generation; Petrochemicals; and Holding, Transportation and Others segments. It generates electricity through thermal plants, hydroelectric plants, and wind farms with a 5,472 megawatt (MW) installed capacity.

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Pampa Energía S.A. operates as an integrated power company in Argentina. The company operates through Oil and Gas; Generation; Petrochemicals; and Holding, Transportation and Others segments. It generates electricity through thermal plants, hydroelectric plants, and wind farms with a 5,472 megawatt (MW) installed capacity. The company also explores for and produces oil and gas in the provinces of Neuquén and Río Negro. In addition, it produces petrochemicals, such as styrene, synthetic rubber, and polystyrene. Further, the company operates and maintains a 22,445 km high-voltage electricity transmission network in Argentina. Additionally, it holds a concession for the transportation of natural gas with 9,248 km of gas pipelines in the center, west, and south of Argentina; and processes and sells natural gas liquids in Bahía Blanca in the Province of Buenos Aires, as well as offers related advisory services. Pampa Energía S.A. was formerly known as Pampa Holding S.A. and changed its name to Pampa Energía S.A. in September 2008. The company was incorporated in 1945 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Stock analysis

Pampa Energia SA ADR (PAM) currently trades at $76.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.62, 15.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $245.52 per share, and 4 of the 8 models we run sit above the $76.39 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $44.94, and 4 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $57.98 (bear) to $86.79 (bull), the price of $76.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Pampa Energia SA ADR reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $377M in FY2025, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $4.2B · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 1.75 · EPS (TTM) $8.25 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 18.9% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −15%, PAM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $57.98 Fair Value $64.62 Bull $86.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.24 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $58.42 $65.34 $89.41 74
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1600 $0.2800 $0.3400 65
Gordon GGM $0.1600 $0.3300 $0.4900 64
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $47.70 $332.65 $466.83 61
Lynch FV $171.86 $245.52 $319.17 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1600 $0.3300 $0.4900 64
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1600 $0.2800 $0.3400 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $94.70 $126.27 $157.83 63
P/B Multiple $89.44 $119.25 $149.06 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $33.54 $44.94 $67.07 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $58.42 $65.34 $89.41 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 20
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.4% vs 9.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

PAM screens overvalued: fair value 15% below the price. Compare with 3M Company →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 358 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −27.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 20.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 38.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.51× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.15× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.92× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.84× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 26
PAST (return on equity)48 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)74 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pampa Energia SA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAM

Frequently asked questions

Is Pampa Energia SA (PAM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.62 versus a price of $76.39, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PAM?
Our model-based fair value for Pampa Energia SA ADR is $64.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $76.39.
What is the quality score of PAM?
Pampa Energia SA ADR has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $57.98, optimistic scenario $86.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pampa Energia SA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.62, about −15% upside versus a price of $76.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $57.98, optimistic scenario $86.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
Pampa Energia SA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Pampa Energia SA ADR pay a dividend?
Pampa Energia SA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pampa Energia SA ADR it is $64.62 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $76.39. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pampa Energia SA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, PAM trades above its calculated fair value: price $76.39, fair value $64.62, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($76.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.62). For Pampa Energia SA ADR the two are $11.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pampa Energia SA ADR worth?
The market values Pampa Energia SA ADR at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $76.39; our models calculate a fair value of $64.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAM?
Our models span a range for Pampa Energia SA ADR: cautious scenario $57.98, base $64.62, optimistic $86.79 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $76.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAM?
Pampa Energia SA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.62 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 9.1 (reported for FY2025: 11.0). Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PAM?
The PEG ratio of Pampa Energia SA ADR is 0.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pampa Energia SA ADR (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAM from its 52-week high?
Pampa Energia SA ADR trades at $76.39, about 17% below its 52-week high of $92.27 and 29% above the low of $59.30 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pampa Energia SA ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pampa Energia SA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $76.39, calculated fair value $64.62 (−15%), Quality Score 49/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAM calculated?
We run Pampa Energia SA ADR through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Pampa Energia SA ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $76.39. Our model-based fair value is $64.62, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pampa Energia SA ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of Pampa Energia SA ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
The market capitalisation of Pampa Energia SA ADR is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pampa Energia SA ADR is 1.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
Earnings per share at Pampa Energia SA ADR are $8.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
The dividend yield of Pampa Energia SA ADR is 0.0% (payout 0.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
The net margin of Pampa Energia SA ADR is 18.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pampa Energia SA ADR is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pampa Energia SA ADR is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
The operating margin of Pampa Energia SA ADR is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
Revenue at Pampa Energia SA ADR is growing +38.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pampa Energia SA (PAM)?
Earnings per share at Pampa Energia SA ADR are growing +39.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pampa Energia SA (PAM) generate?
The free cash flow of Pampa Energia SA ADR is −$283M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Pampa Energia SA (PAM) carry?
The net debt of Pampa Energia SA ADR is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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