Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Prosperity Bancshares Inc stock $53.02, price $71.87, that is 26.2% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.66 – $80.25 · fair‑value band $39.77 – $60.44 · the $71.87 price screens above the $53.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. operates as bank holding company for the Prosperity Bank that provides financial products and services to businesses and consumers. It accepts various deposit products, such as demand, savings, money market, and time accounts; and certificates of deposit.
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The company also offers 1-4 family residential mortgage, commercial real estate and multifamily residential, commercial and industrial, and agricultural and non-real estate agricultural loans; construction, land development, and other land loans; consumer loans, including automobile, recreational vehicle, boat, home improvement, personal, and deposit account collateralized loans; term loans and lines of credit; and consumer durables and home equity loans, as well as loans for working capital, business expansion, and purchase of equipment and machinery.
In addition, it provides digital banking, internet banking, mobile banking, trust and wealth management, retail brokerage, mortgage services, and treasury management, and debit and credit cards services. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) currently trades at $71.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $53.02, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $54.70 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $71.87 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.64, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $39.77 (bear) to $60.44 (bull), the price of $71.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Prosperity Bancshares Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was $543M in FY2025, compounding +1.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.5B Mid · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 6.09 · EPS (TTM) $5.48 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 40.4% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −26%, PB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$39.77Fair Value $53.02Bull$60.44
Price $71.87 · Downside -26.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.1M and none bought.
SaleNed S HolmesDirector52× since Nov 12, 2025: 56,745 shares, avg. $70.27$4.0MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert H SteelhammerDirector1,500 shares at $69.50$104,250May 26, 2026
SalePerry Mueller JrDirector22,000 shares at $73.02$1.6MFeb 17, 2026
SaleLeah HendersonDirector1,050 shares at $73.00$76,650Dec 11, 2025
SaleHarrison Stafford IIDirector800 shares at $70.76$56,608Dec 4, 2025
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.5% vs 3.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.52% → 40%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Acquisitions create scale that may lift efficiency and net interest margins, yet the main weakness remains limited evidence of a durable moat amid average profitability.
Main risk: A downturn in the Texas or Oklahoma economy or real estate markets could reduce loan demand, increase credit losses and pressure margins given the heavy concentration of lending in those states and real estate sectors.
Bull case: By leveraging its expanded scale and new IT platform the bank could integrate acquisitions efficiently, invest in digital services and retain customers through local relationships despite competitive and regional pressures.
Bear case: If regional economic weakness coincides with aggressive pricing by larger entrants the bank might see slower organic growth, higher credit costs and compressed margins that limit the benefits of its acquisitions.
Prosperity Bancshares has integrated multiple acquisitions, most recently completing the Stellar merger in July and scheduling system conversions through early 2027. Scale from these deals may lift efficiency and net interest margins toward the 3.70-3.75% target, but integration costs and cultural alignment could offset those gains in the near term. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the mergers deliver lasting operating leverage, or will execution challenges limit the upside?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)40.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)58.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $53.02 versus a price of $71.87, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PB?
Our model-based fair value for Prosperity Bancshares Inc is $53.02 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $71.87.
What is the quality score of PB?
Prosperity Bancshares Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $53.02 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.77, optimistic scenario $60.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Prosperity Bancshares Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $53.02, about 26% lower versus a price of $71.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $39.77, optimistic scenario $60.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
Prosperity Bancshares Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Prosperity Bancshares Inc pay a dividend?
Prosperity Bancshares Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Prosperity Bancshares Inc pays a dividend of $2.38 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.3%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 15, 2026, with payment on Jan 4, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1999. The payout ratio is 43.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Prosperity Bancshares Inc it is $53.02 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $71.87. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Prosperity Bancshares Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PB trades above its calculated fair value: price $71.87, fair value $53.02, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($71.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($53.02). For Prosperity Bancshares Inc the two are $18.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Prosperity Bancshares Inc worth?
The market values Prosperity Bancshares Inc at about $8.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $71.87; our models calculate a fair value of $53.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PB?
Our models span a range for Prosperity Bancshares Inc: cautious scenario $39.77, base $53.02, optimistic $60.44 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $71.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PB?
Prosperity Bancshares Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $53.02 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2019, FY2023 ex one-offs: 13.4. Other multiples: PEG 4.3, P/B 1.1, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 10.2.
What is the PEG ratio of PB?
The PEG ratio of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is 4.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Prosperity Bancshares Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PB from its 52-week high?
Prosperity Bancshares Inc trades at $71.87, about 4% below its 52-week high of $75.25 and 14% above the low of $63.18 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $53.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Prosperity Bancshares Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Prosperity Bancshares Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $71.87, calculated fair value $53.02 (−26%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PB calculated?
We run Prosperity Bancshares Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $53.02 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Prosperity Bancshares Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $71.87. Our model-based fair value is $53.02, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Prosperity Bancshares Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) come from?
Earnings per share at Prosperity Bancshares Inc grew +2.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin −4.3 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Prosperity Bancshares Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
The market capitalisation of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is $8.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is 6.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
Earnings per share at Prosperity Bancshares Inc are $5.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
The dividend yield of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is 3.3% (payout 43.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
The net margin of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is 40.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
The operating margin of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is 58.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
Revenue at Prosperity Bancshares Inc is growing +25.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB)?
Earnings per share at Prosperity Bancshares Inc are growing +17.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) generate?
The free cash flow of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is $517M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) carry?
The net debt of Prosperity Bancshares Inc is $404M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026