PBF Energy Inc (PBF) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $7.4B · ISIN US69318G1067
What is PBF Energy Inc really worth?
PBF Energy Inc
PBF · US
A solid business, but trading 588% above our fair value of $10.80.
As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of PBF Energy Inc is $10.80 per share against a price of $74.34, so the fair value sits 85% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +21.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.08 to $18.51). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.67 – $75.48 · fair‑value band $3.08 – $18.51 · the $74.34 price screens above the $10.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
PBF Energy Inc (PBF) currently trades at $74.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.80, implying the stock looks roughly 588.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $30.13 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $74.34 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $16.17, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, PBF Energy Inc generated revenue of $30.2B at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue grew 11.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.08 (bear case) to $18.51 (bull case); at $74.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 339% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −85%, PBF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.84 per share, which is 12.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($30.13) versus Dividend Discount ($16.17). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (65).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PBF Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the refining and supplying of petroleum products. It operates through two segments, Refining and Logistics.
Full company description
PBF Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the refining and supplying of petroleum products. It operates through two segments, Refining and Logistics. The company produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt; diesel fuel; and unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. It sells its products in the Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company is also involved in the provision of various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services; and pipeline transportation and storage services. PBF Energy Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PBF Energy Inc reported revenue of $29.3B in FY2025 versus $27.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$159M in FY2025.
PBF screens 588% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $352.36 | $127.32 | −64% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $368.83 | $133.18 | −64% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $246.58 | $99.41 | −60% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.28 | €3.83 | −88% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 75.80 TWD | 15.32 TWD | −80% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $87.93 | $44.96 | −49% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.70 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 131,500 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −59% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
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