Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 10, 2026: fair value of Picton Property Income Ltd £0.75, price £0.70, upside +7.1%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.5293 – £0.8718 · fair‑value band £0.3500 – £1.45 · the £0.7000 price screens below the £0.7500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Picton Property Income Limited is listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of a number of EPRA indices including the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Index. Picton owns and actively manages a 699 million pounds UK commercial property portfolio, invested across 46 assets and with around 300 occupiers (as of 31 December 2025).
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Picton Property Income Limited is listed on the main market of the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of a number of EPRA indices including the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Index. Picton owns and actively manages a 699 million pounds UK commercial property portfolio, invested across 46 assets and with around 300 occupiers (as of 31 December 2025). Through an occupier focused, opportunity led approach, Picton aims to be the consistently best performing diversified UK REIT and has delivered upper quartile outperformance and a consistently higher income return than the MSCI Quarterly Property Index since launch. With a portfolio strategically positioned to capture income and capital growth, currently weighted towards the industrial sector, Picton's agile business model provides flexibility to adapt to evolving market trends over the long-term. Picton Property Income Limited was established and incorporated in 2005 in United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN) currently trades at £0.7000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.7500, implying the stock looks roughly 6.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £0.9200 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the £0.7000 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.4900, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.3500 (bear) to £1.45 (bull), the price of £0.7000 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Picton Property Income Ltd reported revenue of £51.1M in FY2026 versus £169M in FY2022, a compound −25.9%/yr. Reported net income was £25.9M in FY2026, compounding −35.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 363M GBX · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 7.09 · EPS (TTM) £0.0500 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 50.6% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 7%, PCTN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.3500Fair Value £0.7500Bull £1.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0058 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs −8%, picking up
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.91% → 55%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.4% a year for the price.
Compare Picton Property Income Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)51% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)70% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Picton Property Income Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PCTN
Frequently asked questions
Is Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.7500 versus the last price from Sep 10, 2026 of £0.7000, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PCTN?
Our model-based fair value for Picton Property Income Ltd is £0.7500 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 10, 2026): £0.7000.
What is the quality score of PCTN?
Picton Property Income Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.7500 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.3500, optimistic scenario £1.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Picton Property Income Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.7500, about +7% upside versus the last price from Sep 10, 2026 of £0.7000 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £0.3500, optimistic scenario £1.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
Picton Property Income Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £51.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Picton Property Income Ltd pay a dividend?
Picton Property Income Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Picton Property Income Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +23.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PCTN use?
Our models discount Picton Property Income Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Picton Property Income Ltd that is +23.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Picton Property Income Ltd grew +0.5 % a year. The price currently implies +23.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Picton Property Income Ltd (+23.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.53 %: that much free cash flow Picton Property Income Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Picton Property Income Ltd it is £0.7500 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £0.7000. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Picton Property Income Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PCTN trades below its calculated fair value: price £0.7000, fair value £0.7500, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PCTN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.7000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.7500). For Picton Property Income Ltd the two are £0.0500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Picton Property Income Ltd worth?
The market values Picton Property Income Ltd at about 363M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £0.7000; our models calculate a fair value of £0.7500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PCTN?
Our models span a range for Picton Property Income Ltd: cautious scenario £0.3500, base £0.7500, optimistic £1.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £0.7000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PCTN?
Picton Property Income Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.7500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 9.4, EV/EBITDA 21.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Picton Property Income Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PCTN from its 52-week high?
Picton Property Income Ltd trades at £0.7000, about 20% below its 52-week high of £0.8718 and 3% above the low of £0.6786 (as of Sep 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.7500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Picton Property Income Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Picton Property Income Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £0.7000, calculated fair value £0.7500 (+7%), Quality Score 64/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PCTN calculated?
We run Picton Property Income Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.7500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Picton Property Income Ltd currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 10, 2026 and stands at £0.7000. Our model-based fair value is £0.7500, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Picton Property Income Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (£0.3500 to £1.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Picton Property Income Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
The market capitalisation of Picton Property Income Ltd is 363M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Picton Property Income Ltd is 7.09 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
Earnings per share at Picton Property Income Ltd are £0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
The dividend yield of Picton Property Income Ltd is 5.4% (payout 76.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
The net margin of Picton Property Income Ltd is 50.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Picton Property Income Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Picton Property Income Ltd is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
The operating margin of Picton Property Income Ltd is 70.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
Revenue at Picton Property Income Ltd is growing +0.9% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN)?
Earnings per share at Picton Property Income Ltd are growing −38.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Picton Property Income Ltd (PCTN) carry?
The net debt of Picton Property Income Ltd is 167M GBX (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 13.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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