PagerDuty, Inc (PD) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $654M
PagerDuty, Inc
PD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +16.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 37% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.73 – $47.49 · fair‑value band $11.97 – $21.17 · the $11.69 price screens below the $15.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
PagerDuty, Inc (PD) currently trades at $11.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.97, implying the stock looks roughly 36.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PagerDuty, Inc generated revenue of $494M at a net margin of 38.6%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 94.6%. Net debt stands at $176M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.97 (bear case) to $21.17 (bull case); at $11.69, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 37%, PD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($56.49) versus Asset-Based ($2.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PagerDuty, Inc. engages in the operation of a digital operations management platform in the United States and internationally. The company collects data and digital signals from virtually any software-enabled system or device and leverages artificial intelligence and powerful machine learning to correlate, process, predict, and remediate incident.
Full company description
PagerDuty, Inc. engages in the operation of a digital operations management platform in the United States and internationally. The company collects data and digital signals from virtually any software-enabled system or device and leverages artificial intelligence and powerful machine learning to correlate, process, predict, and remediate incident. Its platform includes PagerDuty Incident Management that provides a real-time view status of a digital service; AIOps that applies machine learning to correlate and automate the identification of incidents from billions of events; automation offers centralized design time and run time environment for orchestrating automated workflows; customer service operations, which is offered to orchestrate, automate, and scale responses to customer issues; and artificial intelligence offers generative AI capabilities for the PagerDuty operations cloud platform . The company serves various industries, including software and technology, telecommunications, retail, travel and hospitality, media and entertainment, and financial services. PagerDuty, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
PagerDuty, Inc reported revenue of $493M in FY2026 versus $281M in FY2022, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was $174M in FY2026.
Watch PD: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- PD vs. FFIV: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
- Is PagerDuty (PD) Stock Undervalued Right Now?
- Asana, Paycom, Bentley Systems, PagerDuty, and Upland Software Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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