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Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Predictive Discovery Ltd A$0.60, price A$4.95, upside -87.9%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 4, 2026
Predictive Discovery Ltd
PDI · AUWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
Generates free cash flow
Quality 48/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +569.9 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.6000 · Strongly overvalued (−87.9%)
Loss-making · -33.7% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (2/10)
Narrow moat 8/100
Insider activity 30/100
Thin data
Structural break⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.5500 – A$5.15 · fair‑value band A$0.4400 – A$0.7000 · the A$4.95 price screens above the A$0.6000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Company profile
Predictive Discovery Limited explores for, identifies, and develops economic reserves in West Africa. Its flagship property is the Bankan Gold project, which covers an area of 356 square kilometers located in the north-east Guinea, West Africa. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in South Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI) currently trades at A$4.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.6000, 87.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$1.10 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the A$4.95 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.4100, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.4400 (bear) to A$0.7000 (bull), the price of A$4.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Predictive Discovery Ltd reported revenue of A$203M in FY2026 versus A$3.1K in FY2022, a compound +1,498.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$68.4M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$5.0B (≈ $3.5B) · P/S ratio 24.8 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1100 · Net margin −33.7% · Return on equity −6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.0% · Operating margin −30.1% · Revenue (TTM) A$203M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 106% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −88%, PDI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.4400
Fair Value A$0.6000
Bull A$0.7000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
A$0.4800
A$0.5900
A$0.9400
76
Growth DCF
A$0.4700
A$0.6400
A$0.9200
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
A$0.4100
A$0.5000
A$0.6600
72
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
A$0.4800
A$0.5900
A$0.9400
76
5Y Revenue Exit
A$0.4100
A$0.5000
A$0.6800
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
A$0.4100
A$0.5000
A$0.6600
72
10Y Revenue Exit
A$0.4300
A$0.5900
A$0.6800
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
A$0.4300
A$0.5800
A$0.8300
64
Multiples
EV/EBITDA
A$0.3800
A$0.4100
A$0.4400
64
EV/Revenue
A$0.3700
A$0.4100
A$0.4500
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.8200
A$1.10
A$1.65
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
A$0.4700
A$0.6400
A$0.9200
73
Rev-Margin DCF
A$0.4300
A$0.5300
A$0.7500
69
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
48/100
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Profitability
3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
93
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
30
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
21
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9,249.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+584.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+569.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +110.4% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+92.4%
’09
’10
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’23
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28,176.4% (2021) → −27.8% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+60.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +55.7% a year for the price.
PDI screens overvalued: fair value 88% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Compare Predictive Discovery Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 217 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Australia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEM | $115.34 | $126.87 | +10% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥30.01 | ¥44.45 | +48% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $185.83 | $219.71 | +18% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | $135.39 | $87.78 | −35% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $239.30 | $263.23 | +10% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $99.03 | $88.60 | −11% |
| Zijin Gold International Company 2259 | HK$143.10 | HK$238.73 | +67% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $24.06 | $51.30 | +113% |
| Northern Star Resources Limited NST | A$22.11 | A$19.86 | −10% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $238.93 | $262.82 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.6000 versus a price of A$4.95, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PDI?
Our model-based fair value for Predictive Discovery Ltd is A$0.6000 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.95.
What is the quality score of PDI?
Predictive Discovery Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.6000 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.4400, optimistic scenario A$0.7000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Predictive Discovery Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.6000, about −88% upside versus a price of A$4.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.4400, optimistic scenario A$0.7000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
Predictive Discovery Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$203M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Predictive Discovery Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +60.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +569.9 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PDI use?
Our models discount Predictive Discovery Ltd at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Predictive Discovery Ltd that is +60.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Predictive Discovery Ltd grew +569.9 % a year. The price currently implies +60.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Predictive Discovery Ltd (+60.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 %: that much free cash flow Predictive Discovery Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Predictive Discovery Ltd it is A$0.6000 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$4.95. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Predictive Discovery Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, PDI trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.95, fair value A$0.6000, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PDI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.6000). For Predictive Discovery Ltd the two are A$4.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Predictive Discovery Ltd worth?
The market values Predictive Discovery Ltd at about A$5.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$4.95; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.6000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PDI?
Our models span a range for Predictive Discovery Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.4400, base A$0.6000, optimistic A$0.7000 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$4.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Predictive Discovery Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −6.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PDI from its 52-week high?
Predictive Discovery Ltd trades at A$4.95, about 4% below its 52-week high of A$5.15 and 106% above the low of A$2.40 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.6000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Predictive Discovery Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Predictive Discovery Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$4.95, calculated fair value A$0.6000 (−88%), Quality Score 48/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PDI calculated?
We run Predictive Discovery Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.6000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Predictive Discovery Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was A$4.95. Our model-based fair value is A$0.6000, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Predictive Discovery Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.7000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Predictive Discovery Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
The market capitalisation of Predictive Discovery Ltd is A$5.0B (≈ $3.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Predictive Discovery Ltd is 24.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
Earnings per share at Predictive Discovery Ltd are A$−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
The net margin of Predictive Discovery Ltd is −33.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Predictive Discovery Ltd is −6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Predictive Discovery Ltd is −6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
The operating margin of Predictive Discovery Ltd is −30.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI)?
Revenue at Predictive Discovery Ltd is growing −67.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +584%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Predictive Discovery Ltd (PDI) hold?
Predictive Discovery Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$254M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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