Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (PEY) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$4.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 23% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (C$14.43 to C$61.96). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.79 – C$28.46 · fair‑value band C$14.43 – C$61.96 · the C$24.90 price screens above the C$19.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (PEY) currently trades at C$24.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$19.25, implying the stock looks roughly 22.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Peyto Exploration & Development Corp generated revenue of C$1.2B at a net margin of 40.3%. Revenue grew 37.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.1%. Net debt stands at C$1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$14.43 (bear case) to C$61.96 (bull case); at C$24.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -23%, PEY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$83.82) versus Economic Profit (C$6.74). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, and oil and natural gas liquids in Alberta's deep basin. The company was formerly known as Peyto Energy Trust and changed its name to Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. in January 2011.
Full company description
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, and oil and natural gas liquids in Alberta's deep basin. The company was formerly known as Peyto Energy Trust and changed its name to Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. in January 2011. Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Peyto Exploration & Development Corp reported revenue of C$1.1B in FY2025 versus C$912M in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$419M in FY2025, compounding +28.8%/yr from FY2021.
PEY screens 23% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Peyto Exploration & Development Corp's Dividend Analysis
- Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. Confirms Monthly Dividend For August 14, 2026
- Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. Confirms Monthly Dividend for July 15, 2026
- A Look At Peyto Exploration & Development’s Valuation After Recent Share Price Pause
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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