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Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ISIN ES0175438003

PC Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A logo Broad data Sep 13, 2026

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A

PGCSF · US

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value $4.62 · Undervalued (+34%)
!Quality 53/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 41/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$4.11 $1.18 Fair Value $4.62 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.18 – $4.11 · fair‑value band $3.16 – $6.99 · the $3.45 price screens below the $4.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. operates in the private security sector. It operates through Security, Cash, Alarms, Cybersecurity, and AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segments. The Security segment engages in guarding and protection of premises, goods and individuals, and activities related to technological security solutions.

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Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. operates in the private security sector. It operates through Security, Cash, Alarms, Cybersecurity, and AVOS (added-value outsourcing services) segments. The Security segment engages in guarding and protection of premises, goods and individuals, and activities related to technological security solutions. The Cash segment is involved in the transportation, storage, safekeeping, counting, and classification of coins and bank notes, deeds, securities, and other items that require special protection due to their economic value or risk; international payment services, online foreign currency, travel money home delivery, and local cash services; and correspondent banking and auxiliary payment services, inter alia, receipt and payment management, and bill payment services. The Alarms segment engages in the installation and maintenance of home alarm systems, as well as the provision of alarm monitoring services. The Cybersecurity segment provides managed detection and response, managed security, cyber intelligence, readteam, management, and risk and compliance services; integration of cybersecurity technology; and automation of processes for early detection of cyber-attacks on enterprises. The AVOS segment offers business process outsourcing services to enhance operational management through redesign, automation, and digital transformation in financial and insurance companies. The company operates in Austria, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cyprus, Denmark, Ecuador, El Salvador, Germany, Finland, France, Guatemala, Honduras, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is based in Madrid, Spain. Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. is a subsidiary of Gubel, S.L.

Stock analysis

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF) currently trades at $3.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.62, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.85 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.45 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.01, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $3.16 (bear) to $6.99 (bull), the price of $3.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A reported revenue of €4.9B in FY2025 versus €3.5B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was €119M in FY2025, compounding +30.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.8B · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.2900 · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.8% · Operating margin 6.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 34%, PGCSF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.16 Fair Value $4.62 Bull $6.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2042 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $2.57 $4.30 $6.83 79
Growth DCF $2.54 $4.11 $6.28 77
Owner Earnings $2.62 $4.39 $6.97 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.57 $4.30 $6.83 79
Owner Earnings $2.62 $4.39 $6.97 75
5Y Revenue Exit $4.03 $7.46 $12.08 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $6.43 $12.26 $19.48 73
5Y P/E Exit $2.71 $4.85 $7.21 69
10Y Revenue Exit $3.25 $6.11 $10.38 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.84 $9.26 $15.86 66
10Y P/E Exit $2.62 $4.40 $6.77 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.52 $6.28 $8.55 64
Lynch FV $1.58 $2.26 $2.94 61
PEG = 1.0 $1.58 $2.26 $2.94 57
EPV $3.96 $4.55 $5.05 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.53 $4.70 $5.88 63
P/S Multiple $2.86 $3.81 $4.76 58
P/B Multiple $2.86 $3.81 $4.76 55
EV/EBIT $7.31 $9.87 $12.43 66
EV/EBITDA $9.81 $13.21 $16.60 67
EV/Revenue $5.11 $7.46 $9.81 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.7500 $1.01 $1.51 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $2.54 $4.11 $6.28 77
Rev-Margin DCF $4.03 $7.37 $11.52 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.41 $1.72 $3.63 71
ROIC Compounder $4.36 $5.51 $6.82 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $2.72 $3.89 $5.05 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 82% above its own trend.

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.3%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PGCSF

Frequently asked questions

Is Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.62 versus a price of $3.45, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PGCSF?
Our model-based fair value for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is $4.62 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.45.
What is the quality score of PGCSF?
Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.62 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.16, optimistic scenario $6.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.62, about +34% upside versus a price of $3.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.16, optimistic scenario $6.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGCSF use?
Our models discount Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.00, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A that is +12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (+12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.40 %: that much free cash flow Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A it is $4.62 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $3.45. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, PGCSF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.45, fair value $4.62, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGCSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.62). For Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A the two are $1.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A worth?
The market values Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $3.45; our models calculate a fair value of $4.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGCSF?
Our models span a range for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A: cautious scenario $3.16, base $4.62, optimistic $6.99 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $3.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is PGCSF from its 52-week high?
Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A trades at $3.45, about 13% below its 52-week high of $3.06 and 105% above the low of $1.68 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ASSA ABLOY AB, Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Securitas AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $3.45, calculated fair value $4.62 (+34%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGCSF calculated?
We run Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A right now?
Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($3.16 to $6.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
The market capitalisation of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is 11.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
Earnings per share at Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A are $0.2900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
The net margin of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is 2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is 5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
The operating margin of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF)?
Revenue at Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (PGCSF) carry?
The net debt of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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