PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A (PGPKY) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $6.4B
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A
PGPKY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $11.18 to $11.31 (+1.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −11.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 125% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.46). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.46 to $14.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.70 – $6.96 · fair‑value band $7.46 – $14.13 · the $5.03 price screens below the $11.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A (PGPKY) currently trades at $5.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.31, implying the stock looks roughly 124.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A generated revenue of $62.4B at a net margin of -6.4%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.1%. Net debt stands at $4.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.46 (bear case) to $14.13 (bull case); at $5.03, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 125%, PGPKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($29.72) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. engages in the production and distribution of electricity and heat in Poland. It operates through Renewables, Gas-fired Generation, Coal Energy, District Heating, Distribution, Railway Energy Services, Supply, and Other Activities segments.
Full company description
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. engages in the production and distribution of electricity and heat in Poland. It operates through Renewables, Gas-fired Generation, Coal Energy, District Heating, Distribution, Railway Energy Services, Supply, and Other Activities segments. The Renewables segment engages in generation of electricity in pumped-storage power plants and from renewable sources. Its Gas-fired Generation segment produces electricity from gas-fired units. The Coal Energy segment includes lignite mining and electricity generation from conventional sources. Its District Heating segment engages in combined heat and power (CHP) generation and heat transmission and distribution. The Distribution segment involves in the management of local distribution networks and the transmission of electricity. Its Railway Energy Services segment engages in distribution and sales of electricity to railway companies and railway-related customers, sales of fuels, maintenance and upgrading of overhead lines, and other electricity-related services. The Supply segment involves in electricity and gas trading on wholesale markets, CO2 emission rights trading, trading in energy origin rights arising from certificates of origin, and the purchase and supply of fuels, as well as the sales of electricity and services to end-users PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. was founded in 1990 and is based in Lublin, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A reported revenue of $61.4B in FY2025 versus $52.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.5B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 154 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $88.80 | $32.94 | -63% |
| The Southern Company SO | $95.61 | $61.06 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $126.11 | $97.11 | -23% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,377 ARS | -27% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $132.50 | $79.33 | -40% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $70.08 | $46.92 | -33% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹341.85 | ₹377.16 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 232.40 PLN | 159.33 PLN | -31% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹283.55 | ₹252.77 | -11% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.91 | ¥7.69 | -14% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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