Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Power Generation Corp 3 VND 32,982, price VND 21,950, upside +50.3%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12,752 VND – 34,257 VND · fair‑value band 16,187 VND – 51,998 VND · the 21,950 VND price screens below the 32,982 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Power Generation Joint Stock Corporation 3, together with its subsidiaries, engages in electricity production, electrical mechanics, and investment and capital management businesses in Vietnam. The company generates and trades in electricity from natural gas, coal dust, thermal, solar, and hydro power plants in Vietnam.
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Power Generation Joint Stock Corporation 3, together with its subsidiaries, engages in electricity production, electrical mechanics, and investment and capital management businesses in Vietnam. The company generates and trades in electricity from natural gas, coal dust, thermal, solar, and hydro power plants in Vietnam. It is also involved in management, operation, repair, maintenance, overhaul, testing, adjustment, renovation, and upgrading of electrical, mechanical, control and automation equipment in electricity production lines and electrical works; management, operation, repair, and exploitation of seaports; and provision of electrical experiments, electrical mechanics, training and development of human resources, maintenance and repair of power plant equipment, project management consulting, construction investment project planning consulting, bidding consulting, and estimating services. In addition, the company provides consulting, verification, and supervision of construction of power generation projects and synchronous power grid projects of power generation projects; maintenance and repair of power plant equipment; and solar energy and renewable energy projects. Further, it operates a total installed capacity of 2929 MW gas fired thermal power plants, 2424 MW coal-fired thermal power plants, 56.14 MWp solar power plants, and 1170 MW. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Power Generation Joint Stock Corporation 3 is a subsidiary of Vietnam Power Group.
Stock analysis
Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV) currently trades at 21,950 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 32,982 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 33.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 56,308 VND per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the 21,950 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10,483 VND, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 16,187 VND (bear) to 51,998 VND (bull), the price of 21,950 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Power Generation Corp 3 reported revenue of 43.6T VND in FY2025 versus 37.8T VND in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7T VND in FY2025, compounding +4.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 24.7T VND · P/E ratio 5.7 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) 3,875 VND · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 8.5% · Return on equity 26.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 50%, PGV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 16,187 VNDFair Value 32,982 VNDBull 51,998 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,835 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−9.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 15%
2025 sits 109% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 158 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+50% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
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Is Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 32,982 VND versus a price of 21,950 VND, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PGV?
Our model-based fair value for Power Generation Corp 3 is 32,982 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 21,950 VND.
What is the quality score of PGV?
Power Generation Corp 3 has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 32,982 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 16,187 VND, optimistic scenario 51,998 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Power Generation Corp 3 stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 32,982 VND, about +50% upside versus a price of 21,950 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 16,187 VND, optimistic scenario 51,998 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
Power Generation Corp 3 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 43.3T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Power Generation Corp 3 pay a dividend?
Power Generation Corp 3 currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Power Generation Corp 3 would have to grow free cash flow by +21.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGV use?
Our models discount Power Generation Corp 3 at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Power Generation Corp 3 that is +21.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Power Generation Corp 3 grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +21.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Power Generation Corp 3 (+21.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.70 %: that much free cash flow Power Generation Corp 3 produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Power Generation Corp 3 it is 32,982 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 21,950 VND. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Power Generation Corp 3 stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PGV trades below its calculated fair value: price 21,950 VND, fair value 32,982 VND, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (21,950 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (32,982 VND). For Power Generation Corp 3 the two are 11,032 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Power Generation Corp 3 worth?
The market values Power Generation Corp 3 at about 24.7T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 21,950 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 32,982 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGV?
Our models span a range for Power Generation Corp 3: cautious scenario 16,187 VND, base 32,982 VND, optimistic 51,998 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 21,950 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PGV?
Power Generation Corp 3 trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 32,982 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Power Generation Corp 3 (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 26.2%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PGV from its 52-week high?
Power Generation Corp 3 trades at 21,950 VND, about 20% below its 52-week high of 27,500 VND and 14% above the low of 19,200 VND (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 32,982 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Power Generation Corp 3?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Power Generation Corp 3 stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 21,950 VND, calculated fair value 32,982 VND (+50%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGV calculated?
We run Power Generation Corp 3 through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 32,982 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Power Generation Corp 3 currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 21,950 VND. Our model-based fair value is 32,982 VND, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Power Generation Corp 3 right now?
The model range is unusually wide (16,187 VND to 51,998 VND). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Power Generation Corp 3
How large is the market capitalisation of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
The market capitalisation of Power Generation Corp 3 is 24.7T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Power Generation Corp 3 is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
Earnings per share at Power Generation Corp 3 are 3,875 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
The dividend yield of Power Generation Corp 3 is 0.0% (payout 0.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
The net margin of Power Generation Corp 3 is 8.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Power Generation Corp 3 is 26.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Power Generation Corp 3 is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
The operating margin of Power Generation Corp 3 is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
Revenue at Power Generation Corp 3 is growing −2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV)?
Earnings per share at Power Generation Corp 3 are growing +655% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Power Generation Corp 3 (PGV) carry?
The net debt of Power Generation Corp 3 is 25.2T VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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