Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. $41.58, price $18.72, upside +122.1%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.88 – $359.40 · fair‑value band $19.47 – $63.50 · the $18.72 price screens below the $41.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands.
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Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands. The company offers Decline Monetization, the flagship product which allows Partners to automatically send rejected loan applications to its network, as well as approve customers they would otherwise decline; Dual Look which allows to assess applications concurrently with its Partners in real time; and First Look that routes designated segments of loan applications to the network for evaluation.It also provides Affiliate Optimizer Engine, a customer acquisition tool which enables Partners to originate loans through third-party affiliate channels; Direct Marketing Engine, that utilizes data network to help Partners target and acquire new customers through direct channels; and FastPass which accelerates the transaction process. Its partners include financial technology companies, incumbent banks and financial institutions, auto finance providers, and residential real estate service providers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) currently trades at $18.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.58, implying the stock looks roughly 55.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $57.46 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $18.72 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.49, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $19.47 (bear) to $63.50 (bull), the price of $18.72 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $446M in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $81.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) $1.12 · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.5% · Operating margin 25.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 122%, PGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $19.47Fair Value $41.58Bull $63.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8193 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+80.8%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11% → 7%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price and +10.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Pagaya Technologies Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 377 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+122% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Above median
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.72× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
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Is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.58 versus a price of $18.72, about +122% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PGY?
Our model-based fair value for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is $41.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.72.
What is the quality score of PGY?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.47, optimistic scenario $63.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.58, about +122% upside versus a price of $18.72 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.47, optimistic scenario $63.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -6.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +68.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGY use?
Our models discount Pagaya Technologies Ltd. at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 5.38, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pagaya Technologies Ltd. that is -6.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pagaya Technologies Ltd. grew +68.9 % a year. The price currently implies -6.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (-6.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.45 %: that much free cash flow Pagaya Technologies Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pagaya Technologies Ltd. it is $41.58 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $18.72. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PGY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.72, fair value $41.58, a gap of about +122% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.58). For Pagaya Technologies Ltd. the two are $22.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. worth?
The market values Pagaya Technologies Ltd. at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $18.72; our models calculate a fair value of $41.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGY?
Our models span a range for Pagaya Technologies Ltd.: cautious scenario $19.47, base $41.58, optimistic $63.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $18.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PGY?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.0, P/B 3.2, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of PGY?
The PEG ratio of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is 0.04 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 16.3%, debt of 1.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PGY from its 52-week high?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. trades at $18.72, about 50% below its 52-week high of $37.66 and 76% above the low of $10.64 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pagaya Technologies Ltd.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $18.72, calculated fair value $41.58 (+122%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGY calculated?
We run Pagaya Technologies Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Pagaya Technologies Ltd. currently trades 122 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $18.72. Our model-based fair value is $41.58, about +122% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pagaya Technologies Ltd. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($19.47). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($19.47 to $63.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
The market capitalisation of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is 0.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
Earnings per share at Pagaya Technologies Ltd. are $1.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
The net margin of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is −1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
The operating margin of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is 25.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
Revenue at Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY)?
Earnings per share at Pagaya Technologies Ltd. are growing +184% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) carry?
The net debt of Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is $634M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026