PHX.TO (PHX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of PHX.TO C$11.49, price C$12.01, upside -4.3%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$2.43 – C$13.51 · fair‑value band C$6.07 – C$15.81 · the C$12.01 price screens above the C$11.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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PHX Energy Services Corp. provides horizontal and directional drilling services, rents performance drilling motors, and sells motor equipment and parts to oil and natural gas exploration and development companies in Canada, the United States, the Middle East regions, and internationally.
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PHX Energy Services Corp. provides horizontal and directional drilling services, rents performance drilling motors, and sells motor equipment and parts to oil and natural gas exploration and development companies in Canada, the United States, the Middle East regions, and internationally. It offers Atlas motors; Velocity Real-Time Systems that provide downhole guidance systems; Echo system; PowerDrive Orbit RSS, a rotary steerable system; performance drilling motors; P-360 Positive Pulse MWD System, a measurement while drilling (MWD) tool; and E-360 EM MWD System, a MWD tool that transmits electric signals through geological formations. The company provides 360 CV MWD System, a clear vision tool, which surveys inclination and gamma in real-time closer to the bit; 360 RWD System, a resistivity while drilling sub; and North Seeking Gyro that offers real-time QA/QC checks downhole. In addition, it offers survey management and gyro surveying services. The company was formerly known as Phoenix Technology Income Fund and changed its name to PHX Energy Services Corp. PHX Energy Services Corp. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
PHX.TO (PHX) currently trades at C$12.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$11.49, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$25.15 per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the C$12.01 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$1.89, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$6.07 (bear) to C$15.81 (bull), the price of C$12.01 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
PHX.TO reported revenue of C$710M in FY2025 versus C$350M in FY2021, a compound +19.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$54.7M in FY2025, compounding +24.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$555M (≈ $391M) · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) C$0.8900 · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 19.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −4%, PHX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$6.07Fair Value C$11.49Bull C$15.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0671 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+28.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.9% vs 6.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.1% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Drilling · 33 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−4.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PHX.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PHX
Frequently asked questions
Is PHX.TO (PHX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$11.49 versus a price of C$12.01, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PHX?
Our model-based fair value for PHX.TO is C$11.49 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$12.01.
What is the quality score of PHX?
PHX.TO has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PHX.TO (PHX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$11.49 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$6.07, optimistic scenario C$15.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PHX.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$11.49, about −4% upside versus a price of C$12.01 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$6.07, optimistic scenario C$15.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PHX.TO (PHX)?
PHX.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$700M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does PHX.TO pay a dividend?
PHX.TO currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into PHX.TO (PHX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PHX.TO would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PHX use?
Our models discount PHX.TO at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.43, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PHX.TO that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PHX.TO (PHX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PHX.TO grew +24.9 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PHX.TO (PHX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PHX.TO (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PHX.TO (PHX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.16 %: that much free cash flow PHX.TO produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PHX.TO (PHX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PHX.TO it is C$11.49 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$12.01. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PHX.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, PHX trades above its calculated fair value: price C$12.01, fair value C$11.49, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PHX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$12.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$11.49). For PHX.TO the two are C$0.5200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PHX.TO worth?
The market values PHX.TO at about C$555M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$12.01; our models calculate a fair value of C$11.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PHX?
Our models span a range for PHX.TO: cautious scenario C$6.07, base C$11.49, optimistic C$15.81 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$12.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PHX?
PHX.TO trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$11.49 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.6 (reported for FY2025: 10.0). Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of PHX.TO (PHX)?
Balance-sheet figures for PHX.TO (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 19.0%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PHX from its 52-week high?
PHX.TO trades at C$12.01, about 11% below its 52-week high of C$13.51 and 87% above the low of C$6.41 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$11.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PHX.TO?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Transocean Ltd, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Valaris Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PHX.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$12.01, calculated fair value C$11.49 (−4%), Quality Score 59/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PHX calculated?
We run PHX.TO through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$11.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. PHX.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PHX.TO (PHX)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$12.01. Our model-based fair value is C$11.49, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PHX.TO right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$6.07 to C$15.81). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of PHX.TO
How large is the market capitalisation of PHX.TO (PHX)?
The market capitalisation of PHX.TO is C$555M (≈ $391M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PHX.TO (PHX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PHX.TO is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PHX.TO (PHX)?
Earnings per share at PHX.TO are C$0.8900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PHX.TO (PHX)?
The dividend yield of PHX.TO is 6.7% (payout 95.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 89.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PHX.TO (PHX)?
The net margin of PHX.TO is 7.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PHX.TO (PHX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PHX.TO is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PHX.TO (PHX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PHX.TO is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PHX.TO (PHX)?
The operating margin of PHX.TO is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PHX.TO (PHX)?
Revenue at PHX.TO is growing −5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PHX.TO (PHX)?
Earnings per share at PHX.TO are growing −54.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PHX.TO (PHX) carry?
The net debt of PHX.TO is C$37.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 43.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 27, 2026