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Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Poste Italiane S.p.A $33.67, price $31.40, upside +7.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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PI
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Poste Italiane S.p.A
PITAF · USNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $33.67 · Fairly valued (+7.3%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.0% dividend yield · Sustainable
✓Wide moat 65/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.64 – $31.40 · fair‑value band $25.01 – $45.72 · the $31.40 price screens below the $33.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services.
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Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services. Its Mail, Parcels and Distribution segment engages in the mail, parcel, and logistics activities, as well as provision of welfare services. The PostePay Services segment provides payment management and e-money services through a network of LIS sales points, as well as mobile and fixed telephone services and electricity and gas sales services. Its Financial Services segment engages in the placement and distribution of financial and insurance products and services, such as current accounts, postal savings products, mutual funds, financing, insurance policies, and activities. The Insurance Services segment is involved in the investment, retirement, and protection businesses through the issuance of life and P&C insurance products. The company was founded in 1862 and is based in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF) currently trades at $31.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.67, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $38.97 per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the $31.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.07, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.01 (bear) to $45.72 (bull), the price of $31.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Poste Italiane S.p.A reported revenue of €21.0B in FY2025 versus €31.7B in FY2021, a compound −9.7%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $40.6B · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) $2.18 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 10.5% · Return on equity 19.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 7%, PITAF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $25.01
Fair Value $33.67
Bull $45.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7032 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
$24.42
$32.52
$43.50
77
Owner Earnings
$28.36
$38.97
$53.96
75
Residual Income
$12.59
$15.53
$21.63
73
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$28.36
$38.97
$53.96
75
5Y P/E Exit
$27.85
$41.34
$54.70
69
10Y P/E Exit
$26.14
$37.08
$49.20
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$13.09
$29.41
$37.61
63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$12.00
$19.50
$28.06
65
DDM Multi-Stage
$12.00
$17.51
$23.67
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$30.33
$40.43
$50.54
63
P/B Multiple
$24.55
$32.73
$40.92
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$6.02
$8.07
$12.04
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$24.42
$32.52
$43.50
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$24.74
$36.07
$48.06
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$12.59
$15.53
$21.63
73
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
54/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
35
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+56.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.6% vs 15.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.0% a year for the price and −8.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−35.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.9%
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Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (26 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Poste Italiane S.p.A. reports 1H results
- Poste’s TIM Bid Is Really a Bet on Rebuilding Italy Inc
- Poste Italiane Unveils $12.50 Billion Offer for Telecom Italia
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 358 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.67 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $31.40, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of PITAF?
Our model-based fair value for Poste Italiane S.p.A is $33.67 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $31.40.
What is the quality score of PITAF?
Poste Italiane S.p.A has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.67 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.01, optimistic scenario $45.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Poste Italiane S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.67, about +7% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $31.40 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $25.01, optimistic scenario $45.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
Poste Italiane S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €14.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Poste Italiane S.p.A pay a dividend?
Poste Italiane S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.98% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Poste Italiane S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by -6.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PITAF use?
Our models discount Poste Italiane S.p.A at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Poste Italiane S.p.A that is -6.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Poste Italiane S.p.A grew -6.9 % a year. The price currently implies -6.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Poste Italiane S.p.A (-6.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.64 %: that much free cash flow Poste Italiane S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Poste Italiane S.p.A it is $33.67 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $31.40. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Poste Italiane S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, PITAF trades below its calculated fair value: price $31.40, fair value $33.67, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PITAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.67). For Poste Italiane S.p.A the two are $2.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Poste Italiane S.p.A worth?
The market values Poste Italiane S.p.A at about $40.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $31.40; our models calculate a fair value of $33.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PITAF?
Our models span a range for Poste Italiane S.p.A: cautious scenario $25.01, base $33.67, optimistic $45.72 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $31.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PITAF?
Poste Italiane S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Poste Italiane S.p.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 19.0%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PITAF from its 52-week high?
Poste Italiane S.p.A trades at $31.40, at its 52-week high of $31.40 and 50% above the low of $20.90 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Poste Italiane S.p.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Poste Italiane S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $31.40, calculated fair value $33.67 (+7%), Quality Score 54/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PITAF calculated?
We run Poste Italiane S.p.A through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Poste Italiane S.p.A currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $31.40. Our model-based fair value is $33.67, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Poste Italiane S.p.A right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($25.01 to $45.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Poste Italiane S.p.A grew +18.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.1 %, EBIT margin +23.3 %, tax rate +3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Poste Italiane S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
The market capitalisation of Poste Italiane S.p.A is $40.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Poste Italiane S.p.A is 1.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
Earnings per share at Poste Italiane S.p.A are $2.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
The dividend yield of Poste Italiane S.p.A is 4.0% (payout 57.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
The net margin of Poste Italiane S.p.A is 10.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Poste Italiane S.p.A is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Poste Italiane S.p.A is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
The operating margin of Poste Italiane S.p.A is 24.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
Revenue at Poste Italiane S.p.A is growing +8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF)?
Earnings per share at Poste Italiane S.p.A are growing +36.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Poste Italiane S.p.A (PITAF) carry?
The net debt of Poste Italiane S.p.A is €1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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