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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA stock PLN 122, price PLN 141, that is 13.3% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Energy PL · ISIN PLPKN0000018

PK Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA logo Broad data Nov 5, 2026

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA

PKN · WAR
Solid, but expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 13% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 61/100
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
5.7% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +26% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +25.5 %/yr in PLN)
Thin margins · 4.5% net margin (TTM)
Fair value 122.03 PLN · Overvalued (−13.3%)
Narrow moat 43/100 · thin data
⟳ Cyclical

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Shift to EVs and renewables cuts fuel demand🚩Stricter EU emission and fuel rules raise costs

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

162.60 PLN 37.78 PLN Fair Value 122.03 PLN Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 37.78 PLN – 162.60 PLN · fair‑value band 120.45 PLN – 151.95 PLN · the 140.72 PLN price screens above the 122.03 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business.

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It engages in the processing and wholesale of refinery products, such as crude oil; production and sale of fuel, oil, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as provision of supporting services; production, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat from conventional and renewable energy sources comprising solar photovoltaics, as well as natural gas; trading of electricity; exploration and extraction of mineral resources; exploration, production, and import of natural gas; and trading and storage of gas and liquid gas.

The company is also involved in the exploration, recognition, and extraction of hydrocarbons; fuel station activities; and provision of transportation, maintenance and overhaul, laboratory, security, design, administrative, courier, insurance, and financial services, as well as press distribution, and media activities, such as newspapers and websites.

It offers petrol, diesel, LPG, and biofuels; aviation and marine fuels; heating oils; aromatics, including phenol, benzene, paraxylene, purified terephthalic acid, benzene-toulene fraction, and naphthalene concentrate; olefins; polyolefins comprising polyethylene; plastics, including polyvinyl chloride polanvil, compounds creovil, and PVC neralit; glycols; nitrogen fertilizers; and other products, such as acetone, ethylene oxide, masterbatch, advanced technical carbon black Chezacarb, caprolactam, soda lye, and sodium hypochlorite.

In addition, the company provides base, car and motorbike, truck, marine, industrial, and agricultural oils, as well as paraffin and solvents; table, pickling, iodized table, feed, scrap, and industrial salt, as well as industrial salt brine and dishwasher salt granules; and bitumen.

The company was formerly known as Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to Orlen S.A. in July 2023. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Plock, Poland.

Stock analysis

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) currently trades at 140.72 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 122.03 PLN, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 313.83 PLN per share, and 13 of the 25 models we run sit above the 140.72 PLN price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 18.12 PLN, and 12 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 120.45 PLN (bear) to 151.95 PLN (bull), the price of 140.72 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA reported revenue of 268B PLN in FY2025 versus 131B PLN in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding −30.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 163B PLN (≈ $41.8B) Large · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) 18.11 PLN · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −13%, PKN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 120.45 PLN Fair Value 122.03 PLN Bull 151.95 PLN
Price 140.72 PLN · Downside -13.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (8.59 PLN per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF 192.61 PLN 315.99 PLN 515.58 PLN 79
Growth DCF 194.58 PLN 316.21 PLN 513.34 PLN 77
Residual Income 87.64 PLN 88.79 PLN 92.59 PLN 76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 192.61 PLN 315.99 PLN 515.58 PLN 79
5Y Revenue Exit 190.28 PLN 315.12 PLN 477.87 PLN 72
5Y EBITDA Exit 156.48 PLN 249.80 PLN 359.99 PLN 75
5Y P/E Exit 79.77 PLN 101.56 PLN 122.98 PLN 72
10Y Revenue Exit 183.17 PLN 299.59 PLN 463.35 PLN 66
10Y EBITDA Exit 167.40 PLN 253.08 PLN 369.90 PLN 68
10Y P/E Exit 117.50 PLN 147.55 PLN 182.01 PLN 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 14.82 PLN 53.55 PLN 72.20 PLN 64
Lynch FV 12.68 PLN 18.12 PLN 23.55 PLN 61
PEG = 1.0 12.68 PLN 18.12 PLN 23.55 PLN 57
EPV 155.00 PLN 180.91 PLN 203.68 PLN 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 55.93 PLN 118.06 PLN 190.60 PLN 66
DDM Multi-Stage 55.93 PLN 98.67 PLN 123.64 PLN 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 22.89 PLN 30.52 PLN 38.15 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 27.80 PLN 37.06 PLN 46.33 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 66.34 PLN 88.45 PLN 110.56 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 149.77 PLN 202.91 PLN 256.05 PLN 66
EV/EBITDA 141.20 PLN 191.49 PLN 241.78 PLN 67
EV/Revenue 183.78 PLN 266.68 PLN 349.59 PLN 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 62.12 PLN 83.24 PLN 124.25 PLN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 194.58 PLN 316.21 PLN 513.34 PLN 77
Rev-Margin DCF 190.28 PLN 313.83 PLN 461.66 PLN 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income 87.64 PLN 88.79 PLN 92.59 PLN 76
ROIC Compounder 162.96 PLN 214.08 PLN 283.34 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 19.10 PLN 27.28 PLN 35.47 PLN 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 33
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 51
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 79
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 77
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 80
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 61
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 81
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+8.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26.3% vs −13.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.0% a year for the price and −5.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+15.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−8.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)−7.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)−5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)−4.5%

PKN screens overvalued: fair value 13% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →

Note from the team Oct 29, 2026
AI conclusion: The integrated oil business shows typical commodity-sector traits with limited evidence of a durable competitive moat, while state ownership influence shapes strategic priorities.
Main risk: Growing adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy could reduce demand for conventional petroleum fuels and petrochemicals, hitting refining throughput, upstream production and downstream margins at ORLEN.
Bull case: ORLEN could accelerate its shift into renewables, advanced petrochemicals, biofuels and hydrogen to offset any drop in conventional fuel demand and maintain or grow overall earnings.
Bear case: If the energy transition accelerates faster than planned and EU regulations tighten sharply, ORLEN's refining and upstream assets could face sustained lower utilisation and margin pressure, limiting growth in its core energy business.
Orlen has flagged substantial non-cash impairments in its downstream segment, hitting the New Chemicals project hardest. At the same time it pushes ahead with offshore wind and small modular reactors. Will these transition bets offset pressure on traditional refining and petrochemical margins, or will the core business continue to dominate results?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −13.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 4.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 16.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 25.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 5.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 7.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.07× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.57× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow 9.5× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 3.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.16× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)16 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)35 · sector 53
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 71

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥12.54 ¥13.96 +11% vs PKN
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.70 ¥5.60 −2% vs PKN
TotalEnergies SE TTE €80.70 €73.68 −9% vs PKN
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBR $18.80 $15.70 −16% vs PKN
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 405.40 kr 336.81 −17% vs PKN
Suncor Energy Inc SU $69.06 $50.69 −27% vs PKN
Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 26.16 SAR 19.04 SAR −27% vs PKN
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $125.68 $69.36 −45% vs PKN
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $165.30 $90.40 −45% vs PKN
Chevron Corporation CVX $212.93 $92.05 −57% vs PKN

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Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PKN

Frequently asked questions

Is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 122.03 PLN versus a price of 140.72 PLN, about 13% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PKN?
Our model-based fair value for Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 122.03 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 140.72 PLN.
What is the quality score of PKN?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 122.03 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 120.45 PLN, optimistic scenario 151.95 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 122.03 PLN, about 13% lower versus a price of 140.72 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 120.45 PLN, optimistic scenario 151.95 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 286B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA pay a dividend?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA currently shows a dividend yield of 5.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA would have to grow free cash flow by -6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PKN use?
Our models discount Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA that is -6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA grew +25.5 % a year. The price currently implies -6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (-6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.58 %: that much free cash flow Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA it is 122.03 PLN per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 140.72 PLN. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PKN trades above its calculated fair value: price 140.72 PLN, fair value 122.03 PLN, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PKN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (140.72 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (122.03 PLN). For Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA the two are 18.69 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA worth?
The market values Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA at about 163B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 140.72 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 122.03 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PKN?
Our models span a range for Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA: cautious scenario 120.45 PLN, base 122.03 PLN, optimistic 151.95 PLN per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 140.72 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PKN?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 122.03 PLN is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 7.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
What is the PEG ratio of PKN?
The PEG ratio of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PKN from its 52-week high?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA trades at 140.72 PLN, about 13% below its 52-week high of 162.60 PLN and 63% above the low of 86.28 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 122.03 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 140.72 PLN, calculated fair value 122.03 PLN (−13%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PKN calculated?
We run Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 122.03 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 140.72 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 122.03 PLN, about 13% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) come from?
Earnings per share at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA grew −3.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −5.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA

How large is the market capitalisation of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The market capitalisation of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 163B PLN (≈ $41.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 0.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Earnings per share at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA are 18.11 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The dividend yield of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 5.7% (payout 44.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The net margin of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The operating margin of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Revenue at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Earnings per share at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA are growing +438% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) carry?
The net debt of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 11.2B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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