Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 37.78 PLN – 162.60 PLN · the 152.48 PLN price screens above the 122.03 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business.
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Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business. It engages in the processing and wholesale of refinery products, such as crude oil; production and sale of fuel, oil, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as provision of supporting services; production, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat from conventional and renewable energy sources comprising solar photovoltaics, as well as natural gas; trading of electricity; exploration and extraction of mineral resources; exploration, production, and import of natural gas; and trading and storage of gas and liquid gas. The company is also involved in the exploration, recognition, and extraction of hydrocarbons; fuel station activities; and provision of transportation, maintenance and overhaul, laboratory, security, design, administrative, courier, insurance, and financial services, as well as press distribution, and media activities, such as newspapers and websites. It offers petrol, diesel, LPG, and biofuels; aviation and marine fuels; heating oils; aromatics, including phenol, benzene, paraxylene, purified terephthalic acid, benzene-toulene fraction, and naphthalene concentrate; olefins; polyolefins comprising polyethylene; plastics, including polyvinyl chloride polanvil, compounds creovil, and PVC neralit; glycols; nitrogen fertilizers; and other products, such as acetone, ethylene oxide, masterbatch, advanced technical carbon black Chezacarb, caprolactam, soda lye, and sodium hypochlorite. In addition, the company provides base, car and motorbike, truck, marine, industrial, and agricultural oils, as well as paraffin and solvents; table, pickling, iodized table, feed, scrap, and industrial salt, as well as industrial salt brine and dishwasher salt granules; and bitumen. The company was formerly known as Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to Orlen S.A. in July 2023. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Plock, Poland.
Stock analysis
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) currently trades at 152.48 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 122.03 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 25.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 290.15 PLN per share, and 12 of the 25 models we run sit above the 152.48 PLN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 18.12 PLN, and 13 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA reported revenue of 268B PLN in FY2025 versus 131B PLN in FY2021, a compound +19.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B PLN in FY2025, compounding −30.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 177B PLN (≈ $46.7B) · P/E ratio 27.4 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) 5.56 PLN · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 116% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −20%, PKN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 122.03 PLNFair Value 122.03 PLNBull 122.03 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.5%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26% vs −14%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−53% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PKN
Frequently asked questions
Is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 122.03 PLN versus a price of 152.48 PLN, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PKN?
Our model-based fair value for Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 122.03 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 152.48 PLN.
What is the quality score of PKN?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 122.03 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 25 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 122.03 PLN, about −20% upside versus a price of 152.48 PLN (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 270B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA pay a dividend?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA would have to grow free cash flow by -4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PKN use?
Our models discount Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA that is -4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA grew +25.5 % a year. The price currently implies -4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (-4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.85 %: that much free cash flow Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA it is 122.03 PLN per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of 152.48 PLN. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, PKN trades above its calculated fair value: price 152.48 PLN, fair value 122.03 PLN, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PKN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (152.48 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (122.03 PLN). For Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA the two are 30.45 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA worth?
The market values Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA at about 177B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is 152.48 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 122.03 PLN per share.
What is the P/E ratio of PKN?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 122.03 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 0.3, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 1.0.
What is the PEG ratio of PKN?
The PEG ratio of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PKN from its 52-week high?
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA trades at 152.48 PLN, about 4% below its 52-week high of 146.98 PLN and 116% above the low of 70.61 PLN (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 122.03 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, Shell plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price 152.48 PLN, calculated fair value 122.03 PLN (−20%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PKN calculated?
We run Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 122.03 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was 152.48 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 122.03 PLN, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (122.03 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) come from?
Earnings per share at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA grew −3.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −5.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The market capitalisation of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 177B PLN (≈ $46.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 0.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Earnings per share at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA are 5.56 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The dividend yield of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 5.2% (payout 144%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The net margin of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
The operating margin of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Revenue at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN)?
Earnings per share at Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA are growing +94.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA (PKN) carry?
The net debt of Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA is 11.2B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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