PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of PKP Cargo S.A. PLN 18.47, price PLN 10.38, upside +77.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.00 PLN – 22.60 PLN · fair‑value band 13.86 PLN – 23.09 PLN · the 10.38 PLN price screens below the 18.47 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Pkp Cargo S.A. engages in the provision of logistics services in the field of rail freight in Poland and internationally. The company offers rail freight transport services for coal, coke, aggregates, building materials, liquid fuels and chemicals, metals and ores, timber and agricultural crops, emergency and military, and automotive products.
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Pkp Cargo S.A. engages in the provision of logistics services in the field of rail freight in Poland and internationally. The company offers rail freight transport services for coal, coke, aggregates, building materials, liquid fuels and chemicals, metals and ores, timber and agricultural crops, emergency and military, and automotive products. It also provides intermodal transportation services, such as transport of goods through various means of transport, including train, ship, and car; and railway, road, sea, and air forwarding services, as well as operates transhipment terminals and logistics centers. In addition, it offers railway siding operation services, such as railway traction vehicles for wagon switching, shunting and operation of wagon handling equipment, train clearance from sidings, forwarding and commercial documentation, and diagnostics and maintenance of railway siding infrastructure; and diagnostics and maintenance of railway siding infrastructure; and maintains and repairs rolling stock items. Further, the company involved in the maintenance, repairing, and retrofitting of wagons and locomotives; inspections, maintenance, and emergency repairing of rolling stock; and reclamation work, earthwork, construction, demolition, and other project activities. It serves mining, metallurgical, construction, chemical, timber, food, and automotive industries. Pkp Cargo S.A. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) currently trades at 10.38 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.47 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 43.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 47.29 PLN per share, and 16 of the 21 models we run sit above the 10.38 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 11.62 PLN, and 5 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 13.86 PLN (bear) to 23.09 PLN (bull), the price of 10.38 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
PKP Cargo S.A. reported revenue of 3.8B PLN in FY2025 versus 4.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 39.4M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 465M PLN (≈ $121M) · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) 0.9500 PLN · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.3% · Operating margin −7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 78%, PKP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 13.86 PLNFair Value 18.47 PLNBull 23.09 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6975 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs −1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 0%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+78% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Is PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18.47 PLN versus a price of 10.38 PLN, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PKP?
Our model-based fair value for PKP Cargo S.A. is 18.47 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 10.38 PLN.
What is the quality score of PKP?
PKP Cargo S.A. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18.47 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.86 PLN, optimistic scenario 23.09 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PKP Cargo S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18.47 PLN, about +78% upside versus a price of 10.38 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 13.86 PLN, optimistic scenario 23.09 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
PKP Cargo S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.8B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PKP Cargo S.A. it is 18.47 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 10.38 PLN. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PKP Cargo S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PKP trades below its calculated fair value: price 10.38 PLN, fair value 18.47 PLN, a gap of about +78% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PKP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (10.38 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18.47 PLN). For PKP Cargo S.A. the two are 8.09 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PKP Cargo S.A. worth?
The market values PKP Cargo S.A. at about 465M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 10.38 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 18.47 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PKP?
Our models span a range for PKP Cargo S.A.: cautious scenario 13.86 PLN, base 18.47 PLN, optimistic 23.09 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 10.38 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PKP?
PKP Cargo S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 18.47 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 0.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Balance-sheet figures for PKP Cargo S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PKP from its 52-week high?
PKP Cargo S.A. trades at 10.38 PLN, about 40% below its 52-week high of 17.43 PLN and 4% above the low of 10.00 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18.47 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PKP Cargo S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PKP Cargo S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 10.38 PLN, calculated fair value 18.47 PLN (+78%), Quality Score 55/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PKP calculated?
We run PKP Cargo S.A. through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 18.47 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. PKP Cargo S.A. currently trades 78 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 10.38 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 18.47 PLN, about +78% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PKP Cargo S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (13.86 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of PKP Cargo S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The market capitalisation of PKP Cargo S.A. is 465M PLN (≈ $121M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PKP Cargo S.A. is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Earnings per share at PKP Cargo S.A. are 0.9500 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The net margin of PKP Cargo S.A. is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PKP Cargo S.A. is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PKP Cargo S.A. is −7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The operating margin of PKP Cargo S.A. is −7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Revenue at PKP Cargo S.A. is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Earnings per share at PKP Cargo S.A. are growing +9.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) generate?
The free cash flow of PKP Cargo S.A. is 282M PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) carry?
The net debt of PKP Cargo S.A. is 963M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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