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Data-driven stock valuation

PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PKP Cargo S.A. stock PLN 18.47, price PLN 9.87, upside +87.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 19 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials PL · ISIN PLPKPCR00011

PC PKP Cargo S.A. logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

PKP Cargo S.A.

PKP · WAR
Undervalued, but in a downtrend

The stock costs 47% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value 18.47 PLN · Strongly undervalued
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Costs just 2.5 times its yearly profit.
Quality 56/100
Thin margins · 4.6% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Some data
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.5 %/yr in PLN)
Narrow moat 38/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

21.60 PLN 9.22 PLN Fair Value 18.47 PLN Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 9.22 PLN – 21.60 PLN · fair‑value band 13.86 PLN – 23.09 PLN · the 9.87 PLN price screens below the 18.47 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Pkp Cargo S.A. engages in the provision of logistics services in the field of rail freight in Poland and internationally.

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The company offers rail freight transport services for coal, coke, aggregates, building materials, liquid fuels and chemicals, metals and ores, timber and agricultural crops, emergency and military, and automotive products.

It also provides intermodal transportation services, such as transport of goods through various means of transport, including train, ship, and car; and railway, road, sea, and air forwarding services, as well as operates transhipment terminals and logistics centers.

In addition, it offers railway siding operation services, such as railway traction vehicles for wagon switching, shunting and operation of wagon handling equipment, train clearance from sidings, forwarding and commercial documentation, and diagnostics and maintenance of railway siding infrastructure; and diagnostics and maintenance of railway siding infrastructure; and maintains and repairs rolling stock items.

Further, the company involved in the maintenance, repairing, and retrofitting of wagons and locomotives; inspections, maintenance, and emergency repairing of rolling stock; and reclamation work, earthwork, construction, demolition, and other project activities.

It serves mining, metallurgical, construction, chemical, timber, food, and automotive industries. Pkp Cargo S.A. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.

Stock analysis

PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) currently trades at 9.87 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.47 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 47% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 50.77 PLN per share, and 15 of the 19 models we run sit above the 9.87 PLN price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 3.82 PLN, and 4 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 13.86 PLN (bear) to 23.09 PLN (bull), the price of 9.87 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

PKP Cargo S.A. reported revenue of 3.8B PLN in FY2025 versus 4.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 39.4M PLN in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 442M PLN (≈ $113M) Micro · P/E ratio 2.5 · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) 3.91 PLN · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 21.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 87%, PKP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 13.86 PLN Fair Value 18.47 PLN Bull 23.09 PLN
Price 9.87 PLN · Upside +87.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.35 PLN per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF 55.68 PLN 70.67 PLN 94.97 PLN 82
Growth DCF 57.17 PLN 71.26 PLN 92.40 PLN 80
5Y EBITDA Exit 66.66 PLN 98.06 PLN 139.64 PLN 75
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 55.68 PLN 70.67 PLN 94.97 PLN 82
5Y Revenue Exit 26.52 PLN 28.71 PLN 31.70 PLN 74
5Y EBITDA Exit 66.66 PLN 98.06 PLN 139.64 PLN 75
5Y P/E Exit 32.23 PLN 38.58 PLN 46.38 PLN 72
10Y Revenue Exit 39.98 PLN 42.72 PLN 44.81 PLN 68
10Y EBITDA Exit 61.15 PLN 79.88 PLN 99.64 PLN 70
10Y P/E Exit 43.02 PLN 48.01 PLN 52.27 PLN 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 5.98 PLN 7.31 PLN 8.23 PLN 67
EPV 0.2700 PLN 0.3300 PLN 0.3800 PLN 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple 13.86 PLN 18.47 PLN 23.09 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 11.22 PLN 14.96 PLN 18.69 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 5.41 PLN 7.21 PLN 9.02 PLN 55
EV/EBITDA 67.75 PLN 97.50 PLN 127.25 PLN 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 8.58 PLN 11.50 PLN 17.17 PLN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 57.17 PLN 71.26 PLN 92.40 PLN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 26.52 PLN 30.27 PLN 35.88 PLN 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 12.35 PLN 12.42 PLN 12.83 PLN 71
ROIC Compounder 0.2700 PLN 0.3300 PLN 0.3800 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 9.78 PLN 13.98 PLN 18.17 PLN 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 25
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 69
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 8
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 65
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 13
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 5
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.8% vs −1.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 0%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Note from the team Nov 4, 2026
AI conclusion: State-controlled rail operator draws strength from network scale but is hampered by weak profitability and government-tied governance priorities.
Main risk: Ongoing sanation at the parent with administrator control and stalled capital increase risks delaying recovery and hitting group refinancing plus operational stability.
PKP Cargo's subsidiary for rolling stock maintenance has just finalized its creditor arrangement, ending two years of restructuring proceedings. The parent remains in sanation with day-to-day control shifted to the administrator and plans for a capital increase put on hold while creditor talks continue. Will the subsidiary's resolution speed up a group-wide deal, or will mismatched expectations among creditors extend the process?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +87.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 21.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 4.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −2.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 5.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.53× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 2.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.57× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.12× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 1.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.7× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)28 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)87 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)74 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥6.55 ¥9.21 +41% vs PKP
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥5.36 ¥5.84 +9% vs PKP
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $283.59 $290.92 +3% vs PKP
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.88 ¥4.66 −5% vs PKP
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $124.06 $100.13 −19% vs PKP
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $290.16 $153.89 −47% vs PKP
Getlink SE GET €20.22 €10.47 −48% vs PKP
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $319.94 $132.55 −59% vs PKP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $92.17 $38.04 −59% vs PKP
CSX Corporation CSX $49.12 $12.92 −74% vs PKP

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PKP Cargo S.A.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PKP Cargo S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PKP

Frequently asked questions

Is PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18.47 PLN versus a price of 9.87 PLN, about +87% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PKP?
Our model-based fair value for PKP Cargo S.A. is 18.47 PLN (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9.87 PLN.
What is the quality score of PKP?
PKP Cargo S.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18.47 PLN (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.86 PLN, optimistic scenario 23.09 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PKP Cargo S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18.47 PLN, about +87% upside versus a price of 9.87 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 13.86 PLN, optimistic scenario 23.09 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
PKP Cargo S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.8B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PKP Cargo S.A. it is 18.47 PLN per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 9.87 PLN. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is PKP Cargo S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PKP trades below its calculated fair value: price 9.87 PLN, fair value 18.47 PLN, a gap of about +87% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PKP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9.87 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18.47 PLN). For PKP Cargo S.A. the two are 8.60 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PKP Cargo S.A. worth?
The market values PKP Cargo S.A. at about 442M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 9.87 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 18.47 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PKP?
Our models span a range for PKP Cargo S.A.: cautious scenario 13.86 PLN, base 18.47 PLN, optimistic 23.09 PLN per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 9.87 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PKP?
PKP Cargo S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 18.47 PLN is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.9. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 1.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Balance-sheet figures for PKP Cargo S.A. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 21.7%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PKP from its 52-week high?
PKP Cargo S.A. trades at 9.87 PLN, about 38% below its 52-week high of 15.93 PLN and 7% above the low of 9.22 PLN (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18.47 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PKP Cargo S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PKP Cargo S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 9.87 PLN, calculated fair value 18.47 PLN (+87%), Quality Score 56/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PKP calculated?
We run PKP Cargo S.A. through 19 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 18.47 PLN builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. PKP Cargo S.A. currently trades 47% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 9.87 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 18.47 PLN, about +87% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PKP Cargo S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (13.86 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of PKP Cargo S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The market capitalisation of PKP Cargo S.A. is 442M PLN (≈ $113M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PKP Cargo S.A. is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Earnings per share at PKP Cargo S.A. are 3.91 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The net margin of PKP Cargo S.A. is 4.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PKP Cargo S.A. is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PKP Cargo S.A. is −7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
The operating margin of PKP Cargo S.A. is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Revenue at PKP Cargo S.A. is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP)?
Earnings per share at PKP Cargo S.A. are growing +433% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) generate?
The free cash flow of PKP Cargo S.A. is 282M PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does PKP Cargo S.A. (PKP) carry?
The net debt of PKP Cargo S.A. is 963M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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