Pkp Cargo S.A (PKP) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · PL · Market cap 462M PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +3.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 72% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (13.86 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.10 PLN – 23.10 PLN · fair‑value band 13.86 PLN – 23.09 PLN · the 10.74 PLN price screens below the 18.47 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Pkp Cargo S.A (PKP) currently trades at 10.74 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.47 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 72.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Pkp Cargo S.A generated revenue of 3.8B PLN at a net margin of 1.1%. Revenue declined 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.9%. Net debt stands at 963M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 13.86 PLN (bear case) to 23.09 PLN (bull case); at 10.74 PLN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 72%, PKP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (43.38 PLN) versus Earnings-Based (0.3900 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Pkp Cargo S.A. engages in the provision of logistics services in the field of rail freight in Poland and internationally. The company offers rail freight transport services for coal, coke, aggregates, building materials, liquid fuels and chemicals, metals and ores, timber and agricultural crops, emergency and military, and automotive products.
Full company description
Pkp Cargo S.A. engages in the provision of logistics services in the field of rail freight in Poland and internationally. The company offers rail freight transport services for coal, coke, aggregates, building materials, liquid fuels and chemicals, metals and ores, timber and agricultural crops, emergency and military, and automotive products. It also provides intermodal transportation services, such as transport of goods through various means of transport, including train, ship, and car; and railway, road, sea, and air forwarding services, as well as operates transhipment terminals and logistics centers. In addition, it offers railway siding operation services, such as railway traction vehicles for wagon switching, shunting and operation of wagon handling equipment, train clearance from sidings, forwarding and commercial documentation, and diagnostics and maintenance of railway siding infrastructure; and diagnostics and maintenance of railway siding infrastructure; and maintains and repairs rolling stock items. Further, the company involved in the maintenance, repairing, and retrofitting of wagons and locomotives; inspections, maintenance, and emergency repairing of rolling stock; and reclamation work, earthwork, construction, demolition, and other project activities. It serves mining, metallurgical, construction, chemical, timber, food, and automotive industries. Pkp Cargo S.A. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Pkp Cargo S.A reported revenue of 3.8B PLN in FY2025 versus 4.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound −2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 39.4M PLN in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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