Premier Group Ltd (PMR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Premier Group Ltd ZAR 99.16, price ZAR 184, upside -46.1%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Premier Group Limited operates as a consumer-packaged goods company in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Millbake and Groceries and International segments. The company manufactures, distributes, and sells bread, flour, maize meal, sugar confectionary, and nutritional beverages, as well as biscuits, pasta, rice, and wheat products.
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Premier Group Limited operates as a consumer-packaged goods company in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Millbake and Groceries and International segments. The company manufactures, distributes, and sells bread, flour, maize meal, sugar confectionary, and nutritional beverages, as well as biscuits, pasta, rice, and wheat products. It also provides animal feeds, feminine hygiene, and other personal care products that include intimate care, menstrual, and cotton wool products. In addition, the company engages in flour milling; food processing; investment holding; baking; sales and distribution; and management services. The company sells its products under the Fepro, Iwisa Mageu, Iwisa No.1 PowerUp, Mandla Mahewu, Nyala Amahewu, Super Sun Mageu, Cream and Smileez biscuits, CIM Dry Biscuits, BB Bakeries, Blue Ribbon, Blue Ribbon Square, Mister Bread, S.U.B., Star Bakeries, Manhattan, Champion, Mister Sweet, Rascals, Super C, Impala, Invicta, Ligugu, Mega Star, Nyala, Premier Braaipap, Super Sun, Top Score, Polana, Sunblest, Dove Cotton, Lil-Lets, Crown Select, Dourado, Bakers Pride, Favorita, Florbela, and Snowflake brands. The company was founded in 1824 and is headquartered in Waterfall, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Premier Group Ltd (PMR) currently trades at 184.00 ZAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 99.16 ZAR, implying the stock looks roughly 85.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 180.50 ZAR per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the 184.00 ZAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 49.37 ZAR, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 61.00 ZAR (bear) to 145.81 ZAR (bull), the price of 184.00 ZAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Premier Group Ltd reported revenue of 21.2B ZAR in FY2026 versus 17.9B ZAR in FY2023, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +25.2%/yr from FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap 30.6B ZAR (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) 11.24 ZAR · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −46%, PMR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 61.00 ZARFair Value 99.16 ZARBull 145.81 ZAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (4.59 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Profit margin 2023 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 11%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.2% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−46% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Above median
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.50× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.45× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)34· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)72· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)20· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Premier Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PMR
Frequently asked questions
Is Premier Group Ltd (PMR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 99.16 ZAR versus a price of 184.00 ZAR, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PMR?
Our model-based fair value for Premier Group Ltd is 99.16 ZAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 184.00 ZAR.
What is the quality score of PMR?
Premier Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 99.16 ZAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 61.00 ZAR, optimistic scenario 145.81 ZAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Premier Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 99.16 ZAR, about −46% upside versus a price of 184.00 ZAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 61.00 ZAR, optimistic scenario 145.81 ZAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
Premier Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Premier Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Premier Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Premier Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +28.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PMR use?
Our models discount Premier Group Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Premier Group Ltd that is +28.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Premier Group Ltd (PMR) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Premier Group Ltd grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies +28.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Premier Group Ltd (PMR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Premier Group Ltd (+28.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.27 %: that much free cash flow Premier Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Premier Group Ltd it is 99.16 ZAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 184.00 ZAR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Premier Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PMR trades above its calculated fair value: price 184.00 ZAR, fair value 99.16 ZAR, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PMR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (184.00 ZAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (99.16 ZAR). For Premier Group Ltd the two are 84.84 ZAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Premier Group Ltd worth?
The market values Premier Group Ltd at about 30.6B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 184.00 ZAR; our models calculate a fair value of 99.16 ZAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PMR?
Our models span a range for Premier Group Ltd: cautious scenario 61.00 ZAR, base 99.16 ZAR, optimistic 145.81 ZAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 184.00 ZAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PMR?
Premier Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 99.16 ZAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Premier Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.9%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PMR from its 52-week high?
Premier Group Ltd trades at 184.00 ZAR, about 6% below its 52-week high of 194.99 ZAR and 27% above the low of 145.04 ZAR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 99.16 ZAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Premier Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Premier Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 184.00 ZAR, calculated fair value 99.16 ZAR (−46%), Quality Score 36/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PMR calculated?
We run Premier Group Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 99.16 ZAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Premier Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 184.00 ZAR. Our model-based fair value is 99.16 ZAR, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Premier Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (145.81 ZAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (61.00 ZAR to 145.81 ZAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Premier Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
The market capitalisation of Premier Group Ltd is 30.6B ZAR (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Premier Group Ltd is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
Earnings per share at Premier Group Ltd are 11.24 ZAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
The dividend yield of Premier Group Ltd is 1.0% (payout 16.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
The net margin of Premier Group Ltd is 7.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Premier Group Ltd is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Premier Group Ltd is 13.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
The operating margin of Premier Group Ltd is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
Revenue at Premier Group Ltd is growing +6.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Premier Group Ltd (PMR)?
Earnings per share at Premier Group Ltd are growing +25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Premier Group Ltd (PMR) carry?
The net debt of Premier Group Ltd is 2.4B ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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