Premier Group (PMR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · ZA · Market cap 30.5B ZAR
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −8.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (102.11 ZAR to 199.34 ZAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range 52.59 ZAR – 203.29 ZAR · fair‑value band 102.11 ZAR – 199.34 ZAR · the 185.80 ZAR price screens above the 140.30 ZAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Premier Group (PMR) currently trades at 185.80 ZAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 140.30 ZAR, implying the stock looks roughly 24.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Premier Group generated revenue of 20.5B ZAR at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.6%. Net debt stands at 2.4B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 102.11 ZAR (bear case) to 199.34 ZAR (bull case); at 185.80 ZAR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -24%, PMR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (180.50 ZAR) versus Asset-Based (49.37 ZAR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Premier Group Limited operates as a consumer-packaged goods company in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Millbake and Groceries and International segments. The company manufactures, distributes, and sells bread, flour, maize meal, sugar confectionary, and nutritional beverages, as well as biscuits, pasta, rice, and wheat products.
Full company description
Premier Group Limited operates as a consumer-packaged goods company in South Africa and internationally. It operates through Millbake and Groceries and International segments. The company manufactures, distributes, and sells bread, flour, maize meal, sugar confectionary, and nutritional beverages, as well as biscuits, pasta, rice, and wheat products. It also provides animal feeds, feminine hygiene, and other personal care products that include intimate care, menstrual, and cotton wool products. In addition, the company engages in flour milling; food processing; investment holding; baking; sales and distribution; and management services. The company sells its products under the Fepro, Iwisa Mageu, Iwisa No.1 PowerUp, Mandla Mahewu, Nyala Amahewu, Super Sun Mageu, Cream and Smileez biscuits, CIM Dry Biscuits, BB Bakeries, Blue Ribbon, Blue Ribbon Square, Mister Bread, S.U.B., Star Bakeries, Manhattan, Champion, Mister Sweet, Rascals, Super C, Impala, Invicta, Ligugu, Mega Star, Nyala, Premier Braaipap, Super Sun, Top Score, Polana, Sunblest, Dove Cotton, Lil-Lets, Crown Select, Dourado, Bakers Pride, Favorita, Florbela, and Snowflake brands. The company was founded in 1824 and is headquartered in Waterfall, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Premier Group reported revenue of 21.2B ZAR in FY2026 versus 17.9B ZAR in FY2023, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +25.2%/yr from FY2023.
PMR screens 24% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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