Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pinnacle West Capital Corp stock $61.67, price $104, that is 40.6% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $50.38 – $108.38 · fair‑value band $51.25 – $96.87 · the $103.83 price screens above the $61.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Follow Pinnacle West Capital in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Pinnacle West Capital is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation, through its subsidiary, provides retail and wholesale electric services in the state of Arizona. The company engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity using nuclear, gas, oil, coal, and solar generating facilities.
Show moreShow less
Its transmission facilities include overhead lines and underground lines; and distribution facilities consist of overhead lines and underground primary cables. The company also owns and maintains substations, including transmission and distribution yards; and owns energy storage facilities.
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) currently trades at $103.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.67, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $86.48 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $103.83 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $26.91, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $51.25 (bear) to $96.87 (bull), the price of $103.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Pinnacle West Capital Corp reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $617M in FY2025, compounding −0.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.9B Large · P/E ratio 19.9 · P/S ratio 2.33 · EPS (TTM) $5.21 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 11.5% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −41%, PNW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$51.25Fair Value $61.67Bull$96.87
Price $103.83 · Downside -40.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $97,187 and none bought.
SaleElizabeth A BlankenshipVP, Controller and CAO980 shares at $99.17$97,187Aug 10, 2026
SaleJose Luis Esparza JrSVP Public Policy APS1,800 shares at $102.01$183,618Aug 7, 2026
SaleJacob TetlowEVP, COO, APS6,567 shares at $99.00$650,133May 13, 2026
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.7% vs 2.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 21%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Robust load growth from data centers and manufacturing strengthens the utility's position, yet thin evidence of advantage beyond sector norms combined with negative free cash flow and elevated debt limits overall quality.
Main risk: Arizona regulators could reject or scale back rate increases for new generation and grid upgrades driven by data center demand, limiting recovery of capital outlays and earnings growth from load expansion.
Pinnacle West sees robust commercial and industrial sales growth from data centers and advanced manufacturing in Arizona. Capturing the full long-term earnings upside from this demand requires regulatory approvals for new capacity and rate recovery on heavy investments. Will the load growth deliver more than the risks around policy outcomes and capital structure?
Compare Pinnacle West Capital Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)21.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.83× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.33× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.3× · Pricier than median
PEG3.80× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)36· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)37· sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)35· sector 52
DIVIDEND (yield)70· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pinnacle West Capital Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNW
Frequently asked questions
Is Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $61.67 versus a price of $103.83, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PNW?
Our model-based fair value for Pinnacle West Capital Corp is $61.67 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $103.83.
What is the quality score of PNW?
Pinnacle West Capital Corp has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $61.67 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $51.25, optimistic scenario $96.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pinnacle West Capital Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $61.67, about 41% lower versus a price of $103.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $51.25, optimistic scenario $96.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
Pinnacle West Capital Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Pinnacle West Capital Corp pay a dividend?
Pinnacle West Capital Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pinnacle West Capital Corp it is $61.67 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $103.83. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pinnacle West Capital Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, PNW trades above its calculated fair value: price $103.83, fair value $61.67, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PNW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($103.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($61.67). For Pinnacle West Capital Corp the two are $42.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pinnacle West Capital Corp worth?
The market values Pinnacle West Capital Corp at about $12.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $103.83; our models calculate a fair value of $61.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PNW?
Our models span a range for Pinnacle West Capital Corp: cautious scenario $51.25, base $61.67, optimistic $96.87 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $103.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PNW?
Pinnacle West Capital Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $61.67 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 17.4. Other multiples: PEG 3.8, P/B 1.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of PNW?
The PEG ratio of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is 3.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pinnacle West Capital Corp (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 1.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PNW from its 52-week high?
Pinnacle West Capital Corp trades at $103.83, about 4% below its 52-week high of $108.38 and 23% above the low of $84.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $61.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pinnacle West Capital Corp?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pinnacle West Capital Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $103.83, calculated fair value $61.67 (−41%), Quality Score 36/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PNW calculated?
We run Pinnacle West Capital Corp through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $61.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Pinnacle West Capital Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $103.83. Our model-based fair value is $61.67, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pinnacle West Capital Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($96.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($51.25 to $96.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) come from?
Earnings per share at Pinnacle West Capital Corp grew +2.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin −2.2 %, tax rate +3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pinnacle West Capital Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
The market capitalisation of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is $12.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is 2.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
Earnings per share at Pinnacle West Capital Corp are $5.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
The dividend yield of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is 3.5% (payout 69.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
The net margin of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is 11.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
The operating margin of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
Revenue at Pinnacle West Capital Corp is growing +7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW)?
Earnings per share at Pinnacle West Capital Corp are growing −9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) generate?
The free cash flow of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is −$820M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) carry?
The net debt of Pinnacle West Capital Corp is $17.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Pinnacle West Capital Corp in the live analysis
One click puts Pinnacle West Capital Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 4, 2026