Marcopolo S.A (POMO3) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · BR · Market cap R$6.7B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price −22.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 118% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$5.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (R$5.33 to R$12.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.8365 – R$6.64 · fair‑value band R$5.33 – R$12.20 · the R$4.01 price screens below the R$8.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Marcopolo S.A (POMO3) currently trades at R$4.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$8.74, implying the stock looks roughly 117.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Marcopolo S.A generated revenue of R$9.0B at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue declined 1.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.9%. Net debt stands at R$1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$5.33 (bear case) to R$12.20 (bull case); at R$4.01, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at 118%, POMO3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R$12.72) versus Asset-Based (R$1.53). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Marcopolo S.A. engages in the manufacture and sale of buses, bus bodies, and components in Brazil, South Africa, Australia, China, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally.
Full company description
Marcopolo S.A. engages in the manufacture and sale of buses, bus bodies, and components in Brazil, South Africa, Australia, China, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company offers intercity buses, urban buses and microbuses, electric buses, and hybrid buses; and Volare family of microbuses, such as complete bus, with chassis and body, bodywork for school transport, executive charter, urban transport, and special projects. It is also involved in the development and production of new models on rails; production of units with propulsion, passenger cars, and the manufacture of boxes for people movers, TRAMs, and EMUs; provision of credit solutions for the purchase of buses and minibuses; assembly, marketing, import, and export of refrigeration and air conditioning equipment; and seat foam business. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Caxias Do Sul, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Marcopolo S.A reported revenue of R$9.1B in FY2025 versus R$3.5B in FY2021, a compound +26.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.2B in FY2025, compounding +35.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 149 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $855.60 | $307.83 | -64% |
| Deere & Company DE | $619.77 | $182.29 | -71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 344.00 | kr 288.08 | -16% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $131.06 | $94.80 | -28% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 254.50 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.91 | ¥20.84 | +10% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.25 | ¥11.79 | +43% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.42 | HK$53.57 | +29% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥29.82 | ¥42.00 | +41% |
| Ashok Leyland Limited ASHOKLEY | ₹176.70 | ₹118.01 | -33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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