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Marcopolo S.A (POMO3) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · BR · Market cap R$6.7B

MS Marcopolo S.A POMO3 · SA
PriceR$4.01
Fair ValueR$8.74
Upside+117.9%
Quality55/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.8% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
0.15% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: High Range R$5.33 – R$12.20 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price −22.9% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 118% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$5.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (R$5.33 to R$12.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$6.64 R$0.8365 Fair Value R$8.74 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$0.8365 – R$6.64 · fair‑value band R$5.33 – R$12.20 · the R$4.01 price screens below the R$8.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Marcopolo S.A (POMO3) currently trades at R$4.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$8.74, implying the stock looks roughly 117.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Marcopolo S.A generated revenue of R$9.0B at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue declined 1.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.9%. Net debt stands at R$1.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$5.33 (bear case) to R$12.20 (bull case); at R$4.01, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at 118%, POMO3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R$6.42 R$10.37 R$16.39 80
Residual Income R$4.13 R$4.90 R$15.11 76
Rev-Margin DCF R$6.41 R$10.80 R$16.14 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$6.40 R$10.54 R$17.00 38
Owner Earnings R$7.13 R$11.73 R$18.90 31
5Y Revenue Exit R$6.41 R$10.86 R$16.69 39
5Y EBITDA Exit R$7.53 R$13.04 R$19.70 41
5Y P/E Exit R$8.88 R$15.69 R$23.15 38
10Y Revenue Exit R$6.13 R$10.21 R$16.02 36
10Y EBITDA Exit R$7.05 R$11.72 R$18.36 37
10Y P/E Exit R$7.91 R$13.57 R$21.05 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$4.97 R$18.93 R$25.63 54
Lynch FV R$4.60 R$6.57 R$8.55 50
PEG = 1.0 R$4.60 R$6.57 R$8.55 46
EPV R$5.76 R$6.70 R$7.51 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$7.38 R$14.71 R$22.28 70
DDM Multi-Stage R$7.38 R$12.72 R$15.53 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$11.50 R$15.34 R$19.17 63
P/S Multiple R$8.11 R$10.82 R$13.52 58
P/B Multiple R$7.72 R$10.30 R$12.87 55
EV/EBIT R$10.68 R$14.29 R$17.90 53
EV/EBITDA R$9.04 R$12.10 R$15.17 54
EV/Revenue R$6.65 R$9.57 R$12.49 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$1.14 R$1.53 R$2.29 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$6.42 R$10.37 R$16.39 80
Rev-Margin DCF R$6.41 R$10.80 R$16.14 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$4.13 R$4.90 R$15.11 76
ROIC Compounder R$6.33 R$8.12 R$10.24 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$8.38 R$11.97 R$15.57 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R$12.72) versus Asset-Based (R$1.53). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) R$9.0B
Revenue growth (YoY) -1.3%
Net margin 13.8%
Return on equity 30.9%
Free cash flow R$963M FY2025
P/E ratio 5.7 as of Jun 8, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 11.6%
EPS (TTM) R$1.00
Dividend yield 0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +23.0%
Net debt R$1.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 25
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Marcopolo S.A. engages in the manufacture and sale of buses, bus bodies, and components in Brazil, South Africa, Australia, China, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally.

Full company description

Marcopolo S.A. engages in the manufacture and sale of buses, bus bodies, and components in Brazil, South Africa, Australia, China, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company offers intercity buses, urban buses and microbuses, electric buses, and hybrid buses; and Volare family of microbuses, such as complete bus, with chassis and body, bodywork for school transport, executive charter, urban transport, and special projects. It is also involved in the development and production of new models on rails; production of units with propulsion, passenger cars, and the manufacture of boxes for people movers, TRAMs, and EMUs; provision of credit solutions for the purchase of buses and minibuses; assembly, marketing, import, and export of refrigeration and air conditioning equipment; and seat foam business. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Caxias Do Sul, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Marcopolo S.A reported revenue of R$9.1B in FY2025 versus R$3.5B in FY2021, a compound +26.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.2B in FY2025, compounding +35.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$9.1B
Latest YoY
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.3%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.2%
Revenue +26.8%/yr
FY21 R$3.5B
FY22 R$5.4B
FY23 R$6.7B
FY24 R$8.6B
FY25 R$9.1B
Net income +35.2%/yr
FY21 R$367M
FY22 R$449M
FY23 R$816M
FY24 R$1.2B
FY25 R$1.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +21.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share +11.7 pp

of which total revenue +12.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.4 pp

EBIT margin +7.0 pp
Tax rate +2.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marcopolo S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/POMO3

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 149 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +119% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Revenue growth -1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.65× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.75× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.74× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.31× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 21
FUTURE 0 · sector 30
PAST 100 · sector 34
HEALTH 67 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 3 · sector 39

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
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PACCAR Inc PCAR $131.06 $94.80 -28%
Epiroc AB EPIA kr 254.50 kr 144.14 -43%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥18.91 ¥20.84 +10%
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥8.25 ¥11.79 +43%
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$41.42 HK$53.57 +29%
Yutong Bus Co 600066 ¥29.82 ¥42.00 +41%
Ashok Leyland Limited ASHOKLEY ₹176.70 ₹118.01 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Marcopolo S.A (POMO3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$8.74 versus a price of R$4.01, about +118% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of POMO3?
Our model-based fair value for Marcopolo S.A is R$8.74 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R$4.01.
What is the quality score of POMO3?
Marcopolo S.A has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Marcopolo S.A (POMO3)?
Marcopolo S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$9.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of POMO3?
The net profit margin of Marcopolo S.A is about 13.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Marcopolo S.A pay a dividend?
Marcopolo S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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