Grupo Posadas, S.A. (POSADASA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · MX · Market cap 14.2B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −2.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 10% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from 18.49 MXN (bear) to 32.16 MXN (bull), base 25.73 MXN. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 55/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20.83 MXN – 30.00 MXN · fair‑value band 18.49 MXN – 32.16 MXN · the 28.60 MXN price screens above the 25.73 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo Posadas, S.A. (POSADASA) currently trades at 28.60 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 25.73 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 10.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Posadas, S.A. generated revenue of 9.9B MXN at a net margin of 4.5%. Revenue declined 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at 3.7B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 18.49 MXN (bear case) to 32.16 MXN (bull case); at 28.60 MXN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -10%, POSADASA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (35.64 MXN) versus Dividend Discount (5.85 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, leases, franchises, and manages hotels in Mexico and the Caribbean. It operates through Hotel Business; Vacation Club; and Hotel Management, Trademark Use and Others segments.
Full company description
Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, leases, franchises, and manages hotels in Mexico and the Caribbean. It operates through Hotel Business; Vacation Club; and Hotel Management, Trademark Use and Others segments. The company operates hotels under the Devossion by Live Aqua, Live Aqua, Grand Fiesta Americana, Curamoria, Fiesta Americana, Fiesta Americana Funeeq, The Explorean, Fiesta Inn, Gamma, and One brands. It also operates Fiesta Americana Vacation Club; Live Aqua Residence Club, a club with a portfolio of residential and hotel vacation properties; Fiesta Rewards and Fiesta Rewards Apreciare loyalty programs; and Fiesta Americana Travelty, a travel platform that integrates the company's promotions, packages, memberships, and experiences at the hotels. Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1967 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo Posadas, S.A. reported revenue of 10.0B MXN in FY2025 versus 7.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was 580M MXN in FY2025, compounding +74.2%/yr from FY2021.
POSADASA screens 10% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 170 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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