Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V MXN 25.73, price MXN 27.00, upside -4.7%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 21.79 MXN – 30.00 MXN · fair‑value band 18.49 MXN – 32.16 MXN · the 27.00 MXN price screens above the 25.73 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, leases, franchises, and manages hotels in Mexico and the Caribbean. It operates through Hotel Business; Vacation Club; and Hotel Management, Trademark Use and Others segments.
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Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, owns, operates, leases, franchises, and manages hotels in Mexico and the Caribbean. It operates through Hotel Business; Vacation Club; and Hotel Management, Trademark Use and Others segments. The company operates hotels under the Devossion by Live Aqua, Live Aqua, Grand Fiesta Americana, Curamoria, Fiesta Americana, Fiesta Americana Funeeq, The Explorean, Fiesta Inn, Gamma, and One brands. It also operates Fiesta Americana Vacation Club; Live Aqua Residence Club, a club with a portfolio of residential and hotel vacation properties; Fiesta Rewards and Fiesta Rewards Apreciare loyalty programs; and Fiesta Americana Travelty, a travel platform that integrates the company's promotions, packages, memberships, and experiences at the hotels. Grupo Posadas, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1967 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA) currently trades at 27.00 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 25.73 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 4.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 43.71 MXN per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the 27.00 MXN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 5.85 MXN, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 18.49 MXN (bear) to 32.16 MXN (bull), the price of 27.00 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 10.0B MXN in FY2025 versus 7.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was 580M MXN in FY2025, compounding +74.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 13.4B MXN (≈ $765M) · P/E ratio 30.0 · P/S ratio 1.75 · EPS (TTM) 0.9000 MXN · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −5%, POSADASA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 18.49 MXNFair Value 25.73 MXNBull 32.16 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.4023 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+57.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+55.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 10%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.7% a year for the price.
Compare Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 167 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.37× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/POSADASA
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 25.73 MXN versus a price of 27.00 MXN, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of POSADASA?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 25.73 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 27.00 MXN.
What is the quality score of POSADASA?
Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 25.73 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 18.49 MXN, optimistic scenario 32.16 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 25.73 MXN, about −5% upside versus a price of 27.00 MXN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 18.49 MXN, optimistic scenario 32.16 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.9B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by -4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of POSADASA use?
Our models discount Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V that is -4.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V grew +13.8 % a year. The price currently implies -4.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (-4.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.52 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V it is 25.73 MXN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 27.00 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, POSADASA trades above its calculated fair value: price 27.00 MXN, fair value 25.73 MXN, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of POSADASA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (27.00 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (25.73 MXN). For Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V the two are 1.27 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V at about 13.4B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 27.00 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 25.73 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about POSADASA?
Our models span a range for Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 18.49 MXN, base 25.73 MXN, optimistic 32.16 MXN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 27.00 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of POSADASA?
Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 25.73 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 13.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 1.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is POSADASA from its 52-week high?
Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V trades at 27.00 MXN, about 10% below its 52-week high of 30.00 MXN and at the low of 27.00 MXN (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 25.73 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 27.00 MXN, calculated fair value 25.73 MXN (−5%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of POSADASA calculated?
We run Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 25.73 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was 27.00 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 25.73 MXN, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 13.4B MXN (≈ $765M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 1.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V are 0.9000 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 1.3% (payout 38.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
The net margin of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 5.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
The operating margin of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
Revenue at Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V are growing −90.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V (POSADASA) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Posadas S.A.B. de C.V is 3.7B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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