Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT $7.71, price $3.95, upside +95.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.04 – $7.50 · fair‑value band $5.78 – $9.64 · the $3.95 price screens below the $7.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission and distribution of natural gas in Indonesia. It operates through three segments: Trading and Transmission, Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas, and Other Operations.
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PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission and distribution of natural gas in Indonesia. It operates through three segments: Trading and Transmission, Exploration and Production of Oil and Gas, and Other Operations. The company is involved in the trading and transmission of oil and gas; processing of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to industrial, commercial and household customers; and trading of LNG and natural gas. It also engages in exploration, exploitation, and business development in oil and gas; provision of fiber optic for network services, as well as construction and maintenance services to customers and management; management and leasing buildings and equipment; and distribution of oil and natural gas. In addition, the company provides telecommunication, engineering, consultancy and services. The company was formerly known as PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk and changed its name to PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk in January 2026. The company was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. As of April 30, 2018, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Pertamina (Persero).
Stock analysis
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR (PPAAY) currently trades at $3.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.71, implying the stock looks roughly 48.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $17.23 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $3.95 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.56, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.78 (bear) to $9.64 (bull), the price of $3.95 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $3.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $215M in FY2025, compounding −8.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $0.5000 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 95%, PPAAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.78Fair Value $7.71Bull $9.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3658 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs −6%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−31.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −32.6% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+95% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)8.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PPAAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.71 versus a price of $3.95, about +95% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PPAAY?
Our model-based fair value for Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is $7.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.95.
What is the quality score of PPAAY?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.78, optimistic scenario $9.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.71, about +95% upside versus a price of $3.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.78, optimistic scenario $9.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR pay a dividend?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -31.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PPAAY use?
Our models discount Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR that is -31.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR grew +6.6 % a year. The price currently implies -31.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR (-31.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.13 %: that much free cash flow Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR it is $7.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.95. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PPAAY trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.95, fair value $7.71, a gap of about +95% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PPAAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.71). For Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR the two are $3.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR worth?
The market values Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.95; our models calculate a fair value of $7.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PPAAY?
Our models span a range for Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR: cautious scenario $5.78, base $7.71, optimistic $9.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PPAAY?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.0.
What is the PEG ratio of PPAAY?
The PEG ratio of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is 1.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PPAAY from its 52-week high?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR trades at $3.95, about 36% below its 52-week high of $6.17 and 2% above the low of $3.88 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.95, calculated fair value $7.71 (+95%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PPAAY calculated?
We run Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR currently trades 95 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $3.95. Our model-based fair value is $7.71, about +95% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.78). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR grew −5.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin −4.7 %, tax rate −2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
The market capitalisation of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
Earnings per share at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR are $0.5000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
The dividend yield of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is 8.3% (payout 65.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
The net margin of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
The operating margin of Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
Revenue at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR is growing −3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY)?
Earnings per share at Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR are growing +45.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT (PPAAY) hold?
Perusahaan Gas Negara Persero Tbk PT ADR holds more cash than debt, $265M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026