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Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Petro Rio S.A. BRL 28.91, price BRL 59.35, upside -51.3%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · BR · ISIN BRPRIOACNOR1

PR Some data Sep 27, 2026

Petro Rio S.A.

PRIO3 · SA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value R$28.91 · Strongly overvalued (−51.3%)
!Quality 39/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +52.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.1% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
✓Wide moat 68/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$72.10 R$16.72 Fair Value R$28.91 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$16.72 – R$72.10 · fair‑value band R$25.63 – R$29.31 · the R$59.35 price screens above the R$28.91 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Prio S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in Brazil and internationally.

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Prio S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in Brazil and internationally. The company holds 100% interest in the Polvo Field covering an area of approximately 134 square kilometers located in the southern portion of the Campos Basin, Rio de Janeiro; and the Frade Field that consists of approximately 154 square kilometers located in the northern region of the Campos Basin, Rio de Janeiro. It also holds interest in the Albacora leste Field and the Wahoo and Itaipu Field located in the Camumu Basin, State of Bahia. In addition, the company imports, exports, refines, sells, and distributes oil, natural gas, fuels, and oil by-products; and engages in the generation, sale, and distribution of electric power, as well as holds interests in other companies. The company was formerly known as Petro Rio S.A. and changed its name to Prio S.A. in May 2023. Prio S.A. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3) currently trades at R$59.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$28.91, implying the stock looks roughly 105.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$115.81 per share, and 4 of the 10 models we run sit above the R$59.35 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$21.66, and 6 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: R$25.63 (bear) to R$29.31 (bull), the price of R$59.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Petro Rio S.A. reported revenue of R$15.6B in FY2025 versus R$4.4B in FY2021, a compound +37.2%/yr. Reported net income was R$2.3B in FY2025, compounding +14.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap R$48.0B (≈ $9.2B) · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 1.79 · EPS (TTM) R$4.78 · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4% · Operating margin 39.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −51%, PRIO3 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$25.63 Fair Value R$28.91 Bull R$29.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$3.54 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV n/a n/a R$0.8100 68
Residual Income R$27.04 R$29.21 R$35.62 68
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a R$0.8100 65
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$19.20 R$133.88 R$187.88 61
Lynch FV R$69.17 R$98.81 R$128.46 59
PEG = 1.0 R$69.17 R$98.81 R$128.46 55
EPV n/a n/a R$0.8100 68
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$29.64 R$39.52 R$49.41 63
P/S Multiple R$17.59 R$23.45 R$29.31 58
P/B Multiple R$36.00 R$47.99 R$59.99 55
EV/EBIT n/a n/a R$6.00 61
EV/EBITDA R$17.35 R$32.43 R$47.51 64
EV/Revenue n/a n/a R$2.60 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$16.16 R$21.66 R$32.33 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$27.04 R$29.21 R$35.62 68
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a R$0.8100 65
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$81.07 R$115.81 R$150.55 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 30
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +51.0% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.1% vs 26.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.50% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

PRIO3 screens 105% overvalued. Compare with ConocoPhillips explores for, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 297 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Below median
Fair Value upside −51.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 39.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 110.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.99× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.86× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.25× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 13.68× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)57 · sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)50 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 74

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.72 A$23.84 −25%
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R$28.91 −105%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Petro Rio S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PRIO3

Frequently asked questions

Is Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$28.91 versus a price of R$59.35, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PRIO3?
Our model-based fair value for Petro Rio S.A. is R$28.91 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$59.35.
What is the quality score of PRIO3?
Petro Rio S.A. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$28.91 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$25.63, optimistic scenario R$29.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Petro Rio S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$28.91, about −51% upside versus a price of R$59.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$25.63, optimistic scenario R$29.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
Petro Rio S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$21.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Petro Rio S.A. it is R$28.91 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R$59.35. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Petro Rio S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, PRIO3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$59.35, fair value R$28.91, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PRIO3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$59.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$28.91). For Petro Rio S.A. the two are R$30.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Petro Rio S.A. worth?
The market values Petro Rio S.A. at about R$48.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R$59.35; our models calculate a fair value of R$28.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PRIO3?
Our models span a range for Petro Rio S.A.: cautious scenario R$25.63, base R$28.91, optimistic R$29.31 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R$59.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PRIO3?
Petro Rio S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$28.91 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 17.6 (reported for FY2025: 21.4). Other multiples: PEG 13.7, P/B 1.9, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of PRIO3?
The PEG ratio of Petro Rio S.A. is 13.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Petro Rio S.A. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PRIO3 from its 52-week high?
Petro Rio S.A. trades at R$59.35, about 18% below its 52-week high of R$72.10 and 74% above the low of R$34.20 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$28.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Petro Rio S.A.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Petro Rio S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R$59.35, calculated fair value R$28.91 (−51%), Quality Score 39/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PRIO3 calculated?
We run Petro Rio S.A. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$28.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Petro Rio S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was R$59.35. Our model-based fair value is R$28.91, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Petro Rio S.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$29.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (R$25.63 to R$29.31), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Petro Rio S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
The market capitalisation of Petro Rio S.A. is R$48.0B (≈ $9.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Petro Rio S.A. is 1.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
Earnings per share at Petro Rio S.A. are R$4.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
The net margin of Petro Rio S.A. is 14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Petro Rio S.A. is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Petro Rio S.A. is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
The operating margin of Petro Rio S.A. is 39.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
Revenue at Petro Rio S.A. is growing +111% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3)?
Earnings per share at Petro Rio S.A. are growing +189% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3) generate?
The free cash flow of Petro Rio S.A. is −R$9.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO3) carry?
The net debt of Petro Rio S.A. is R$25.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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