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PSI Software AG (PSAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of PSI Software AG €10.39, price €45.40, upside -77.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · DE · ISIN DE000A0Z1JH9

PS Thin data Sep 27, 2026

PSI Software AG

PSAN · XETRA

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €10.39 · Strongly overvalued (−77.1%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -13.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/11)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 4 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€47.44 €18.58 Fair Value €10.39 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €18.58 – €47.44 · fair‑value band €7.82 – €13.66 · the €45.40 price screens above the €10.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

PSI Software SE develops and integrates software solutions and products. It operates through Grid & Energy Management; Process Industries & Metals; Discrete Manufacturing; and Logistics segments.

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PSI Software SE develops and integrates software solutions and products. It operates through Grid & Energy Management; Process Industries & Metals; Discrete Manufacturing; and Logistics segments. The company offers Software solutions for production management, supply chain management, advanced planning & scheduling, and manufacturing execution systems; logistics software; and energy control system. It also provides PSIairport, a software for passenger and baggage handling; PSIasm/Qualicision, a planning and monitoring software; PSIcarlos, an operations planning system; PSIcds, a commercial dispatching system; PSIcommand, a tool for operating and servicing the grid infrastructure; PSIconnect, a platform for grid digitalization; PSIcontrol, a Control system for monitoring, controlling and simulating; PSIcontrol/Gas, network control system; PSIdeepqualicision AI, a value-adding process data analysis; PSIganesi/Online, simulation and monitoring of gas flows; and PSIganesi/Studio, a simulation of flow states. In addition, the company offers PSIgasguide, for maintaining network and determine optimal operating modes; PSIglobal, a supply chain network design; PSIgridmobile for Digitalization of the field service; PSImarket, a software for energy trade and sales; PSImetals, a Production management solutions; PSIngo, a Grid Operator; PSIpipelines for pipeline operations; PSIprins for optimal management across the energy grids; PSIqualicision AI, for multicriteria decision support and optimization; PSIqualicision/ODS for cloud-based online decision support and optimization; PSIrwin, software for the inspection and calibration; PSIsiu for Configuration management; PSIsmartcharging for preparing grid; PSItms for transport optimization; PSIwms, a warehouse management software; and TS-Energy, a software application for power plant. The company also offers its products through its app store. PSI Software SE was founded in 1969 and is based in Berlin, Germany.

Stock analysis

PSI Software AG (PSAN) currently trades at €45.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.39, implying the stock looks roughly 336.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €10.05 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the €45.40 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.89, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €7.82 (bear) to €13.66 (bull), the price of €45.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

PSI Software AG reported revenue of €286M in FY2025 versus €248M in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€31.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €705M · P/S ratio 2.37 · EPS (TTM) €−1.49 · Net margin −11.1% · Return on equity −50.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% · Operating margin −8.6% · Revenue (TTM) €299M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −77%, PSAN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €7.82 Fair Value €10.39 Bull €13.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €8.47 €11.20 €14.63 82
Growth DCF €8.58 €11.03 €13.96 80
5Y Revenue Exit €7.22 €9.95 €13.27 73
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €8.47 €11.20 €14.63 82
5Y Revenue Exit €7.22 €9.95 €13.27 73
10Y Revenue Exit €7.54 €9.95 €12.90 68
Multiples
EV/Revenue €6.69 €9.07 €11.45 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.15 €2.89 €4.31 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €8.58 €11.03 €13.96 80
Rev-Margin DCF €7.22 €10.05 €13.17 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 97
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 42/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.9% (2020) → −12.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.6% a year for the price.

PSAN screens 337% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 709 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −77.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −13.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −8.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.14× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 11.96× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 2.69× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 84.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.45× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)4 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)93 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €185.92 €172.46 −7%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $234.02 $342.73 +46%
Shopify Inc SHOP $142.25 $64.36 −55%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $135.62 $149.18 +10%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.62 $103.69 +49%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $335.94 $74.36 −78%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $263.67 $150.01 −43%
Adobe Inc ADBE $235.47 $454.04 +93%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $268.13 $32.52 −88%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $326.13 $225.48 −31%

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PSI Software AG · Fair Value
€10.39 −337%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PSI Software AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PSAN

Frequently asked questions

Is PSI Software AG (PSAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.39 versus a price of €45.40, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PSAN?
Our model-based fair value for PSI Software AG is €10.39 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €45.40.
What is the quality score of PSAN?
PSI Software AG has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.39 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.82, optimistic scenario €13.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PSI Software AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.39, about −77% upside versus a price of €45.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.82, optimistic scenario €13.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
PSI Software AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €299M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PSI Software AG would have to grow free cash flow by +36.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PSAN use?
Our models discount PSI Software AG at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PSI Software AG that is +36.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PSI Software AG (PSAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PSI Software AG grew +5.6 % a year. The price currently implies +36.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PSI Software AG (PSAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PSI Software AG (+36.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.35 %: that much free cash flow PSI Software AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PSI Software AG it is €10.39 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €45.40. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PSI Software AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, PSAN trades above its calculated fair value: price €45.40, fair value €10.39, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PSAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€45.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.39). For PSI Software AG the two are €35.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PSI Software AG worth?
The market values PSI Software AG at about €705M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €45.40; our models calculate a fair value of €10.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PSAN?
Our models span a range for PSI Software AG: cautious scenario €7.82, base €10.39, optimistic €13.66 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €45.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of PSAN?
The PEG ratio of PSI Software AG is 0.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for PSI Software AG (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −50.2%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PSAN from its 52-week high?
PSI Software AG trades at €45.40, about 3% below its 52-week high of €46.60 and 85% above the low of €24.50 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PSI Software AG?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PSI Software AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €45.40, calculated fair value €10.39 (−77%), Quality Score 52/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PSAN calculated?
We run PSI Software AG through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PSI Software AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was €45.40. Our model-based fair value is €10.39, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PSI Software AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€13.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of PSI Software AG

How large is the market capitalisation of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
The market capitalisation of PSI Software AG is €705M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PSI Software AG is 2.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
Earnings per share at PSI Software AG are €−1.49. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
The net margin of PSI Software AG is −11.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PSI Software AG is −50.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PSI Software AG is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
The operating margin of PSI Software AG is −8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
Revenue at PSI Software AG is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PSI Software AG (PSAN)?
Earnings per share at PSI Software AG are growing −56.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PSI Software AG (PSAN) carry?
The net debt of PSI Software AG is €53.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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