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Paz Oil (PZOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Paz Oil ILS 395, price ILS 858, upside -54.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · Il · ISIN IL0011000077

PO Some data Sep 24, 2026

Paz Oil

PZOL · TA

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 394.78 ILA · Strongly overvalued (−54%)
!Quality 52/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·6.12% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

913.70 ILA 199.69 ILA Fair Value 394.78 ILA May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 199.69 ILA – 913.70 ILA · fair‑value band 305.10 ILA – 584.60 ILA · the 858.30 ILA price screens above the 394.78 ILA fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Paz Oil Company Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, refines, produces, stores, imports, markets, and sells petroleum and other products in Israel and internationally.

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Paz Oil Company Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, refines, produces, stores, imports, markets, and sells petroleum and other products in Israel and internationally. It engages in the transportation, marketing, distribution, and sale of fuels through refueling stations; food and convenience products through Yellow market stores; leasing of stores; and engineering, maintenance, and logistic services. The company is also involved in trading and direct marketing of fuel products to private, commercial, industrial, and institutional customers, as well as to vehicle fleets and the Palestinian Authority. In addition, it markets, distributes, and sells LPG for cooking, heating, and refueling vehicles; produces, markets, and exports sealing and insulation products to construction industry; manufactures and markets products for transportation infrastructure; develops, produces, imports/exports, and markets bitumen-based products and bituminous sheets; markets various sealing and coating liquids, and other products; distributes aviation fuels; and provides refueling services. Further, the company produces, imports, markets, and exports oils for transportation and industry, and automatic lubricating oils, as well as various solvents and raw materials for the perfume and detergent industry; offers process products for the agro industry; markets raw materials for the paint, printing, and construction industries; and produces and markets auxiliary products for cars, fuel additives, lubricating pastes, urea, and cleaning agents for industry, as well as combustible liquid for industry and heating, renewed oil, and recycled solvents. Additionally, it generates and sells photovoltaic electricity; imports crude oil; and offers procurement services. The company was formerly known as The Shell Company of Palestine and changed its name to Paz Oil Company Ltd. in 1960. Paz Oil Company Ltd. was founded in 1922 and is based in Yakum, Israel.

Stock analysis

Paz Oil (PZOL) currently trades at 858.30 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 394.78 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 117.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 674.81 ILA per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the 858.30 ILA price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 50.08 ILA, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 305.10 ILA (bear) to 584.60 ILA (bull), the price of 858.30 ILA sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Paz Oil reported revenue of 13.3B ILS in FY2023 versus 12.7B ILS in FY2019, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was −5.0M ILS in FY2023.

Key figures

Market cap 4.3B ILA · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) 56.41 ILA · Dividend yield 6.1% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 16.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −54%, PZOL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 305.10 ILA Fair Value 394.78 ILA Bull 584.60 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 693.50 ILA 937.45 ILA 1,385 ILA 80
Growth DCF 718.63 ILA 951.99 ILA 1,343 ILA 79
5Y EBITDA Exit 402.41 ILA 578.74 ILA 822.46 ILA 75
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 693.50 ILA 937.45 ILA 1,385 ILA 80
Owner Earnings 27.76 ILA 91.26 ILA 207.62 ILA 69
5Y Revenue Exit 445.33 ILA 651.70 ILA 961.94 ILA 72
5Y EBITDA Exit 402.41 ILA 578.74 ILA 822.46 ILA 75
10Y Revenue Exit 536.54 ILA 714.65 ILA 905.51 ILA 68
10Y EBITDA Exit 523.84 ILA 671.27 ILA 824.80 ILA 70
Earnings-Based
EPV 181.60 ILA 234.52 ILA 278.63 ILA 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 43.66 ILA 50.08 ILA 57.01 ILA 69
DDM Multi-Stage 43.66 ILA 54.50 ILA 66.81 ILA 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT 207.21 ILA 345.12 ILA 483.03 ILA 64
EV/EBITDA 243.60 ILA 393.64 ILA 543.67 ILA 66
EV/Revenue 295.47 ILA 510.61 ILA 725.75 ILA 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 148.49 ILA 198.98 ILA 296.98 ILA 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 718.63 ILA 951.99 ILA 1,343 ILA 79
Rev-Margin DCF 445.33 ILA 674.81 ILA 974.26 ILA 72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 181.60 ILA 234.52 ILA 278.63 ILA 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 64
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.2% (2018) → 4.4% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2023 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.9% a year for the price.

PZOL screens 117% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −54% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.04× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.44× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.11× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.4× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)65 · sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)48 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE ₹1,248 ₹865.31 −31%
Valero Energy Corporation VLO $375.84 $127.32 −66%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC $388.38 $151.74 −61%
Phillips 66 PSX $256.48 $87.35 −66%
Neste Oyj NESTE €35.82 €5.85 −84%
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 87.20 TWD 20.61 TWD −76%
Indian Oil Corporation IOC ₹138.15 ₹417.35 +202%
HF Sinclair Corporation DINO $106.69 $52.19 −51%
SK Innovation Co 096770 149,200 KRW 50,008 KRW −66%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹315.75 ₹846.81 +168%

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Paz Oil · Fair Value
394.78 ILA −117%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paz Oil Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PZOL

Frequently asked questions

Is Paz Oil (PZOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 394.78 ILA versus a price of 858.30 ILA, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PZOL?
Our model-based fair value for Paz Oil is 394.78 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 858.30 ILA.
What is the quality score of PZOL?
Paz Oil has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paz Oil (PZOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 394.78 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 305.10 ILA, optimistic scenario 584.60 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paz Oil stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 394.78 ILA, about −54% upside versus a price of 858.30 ILA (overvalued). Cautious scenario 305.10 ILA, optimistic scenario 584.60 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
Paz Oil reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.7B ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Paz Oil pay a dividend?
Paz Oil currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.12% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Paz Oil (PZOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paz Oil would have to grow free cash flow by +7.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PZOL use?
Our models discount Paz Oil at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paz Oil that is +7.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paz Oil (PZOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paz Oil grew -1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +7.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paz Oil (PZOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paz Oil (+7.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.04 %: that much free cash flow Paz Oil produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paz Oil it is 394.78 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 858.30 ILA. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Paz Oil stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PZOL trades above its calculated fair value: price 858.30 ILA, fair value 394.78 ILA, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PZOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (858.30 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (394.78 ILA). For Paz Oil the two are 463.52 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paz Oil worth?
The market values Paz Oil at about 4.3B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 858.30 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 394.78 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PZOL?
Our models span a range for Paz Oil: cautious scenario 305.10 ILA, base 394.78 ILA, optimistic 584.60 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 858.30 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PZOL?
Paz Oil trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 394.78 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paz Oil (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.3%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PZOL from its 52-week high?
Paz Oil trades at 858.30 ILA, about 6% below its 52-week high of 913.70 ILA and 35% above the low of 634.76 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 394.78 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paz Oil?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paz Oil stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 858.30 ILA, calculated fair value 394.78 ILA (−54%), Quality Score 52/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PZOL calculated?
We run Paz Oil through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 394.78 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Paz Oil itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 858.30 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 394.78 ILA, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paz Oil right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (584.60 ILA). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (305.10 ILA to 584.60 ILA) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Paz Oil (PZOL) come from?
Earnings per share at Paz Oil grew +6.0 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.7 %, EBIT margin +8.8 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Paz Oil

How large is the market capitalisation of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
The market capitalisation of Paz Oil is 4.3B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paz Oil is 0.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
Earnings per share at Paz Oil are 56.41 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
The dividend yield of Paz Oil is 6.1% (payout 93.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
The net margin of Paz Oil is 0.0% (fiscal year 2023). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paz Oil is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paz Oil is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paz Oil (PZOL)?
The operating margin of Paz Oil is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paz Oil (PZOL)?
Revenue at Paz Oil is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Paz Oil (PZOL)?
Earnings per share at Paz Oil are growing +194% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Paz Oil (PZOL) carry?
The net debt of Paz Oil is 4.9B ILA (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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