QuantumScape Corporation (QS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.9B
QuantumScape Corporation
QS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price −8.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.47 – $40.58 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $1.70 · the $6.08 price screens above the $1.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
QuantumScape Corporation (QS) currently trades at $6.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.38, implying the stock looks roughly 77.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
It earns a return on equity of -38.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $160M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.01 (bear case) to $1.70 (bull case); at $6.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -77%, QS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($2.01) versus Asset-Based ($1.35). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
QuantumScape Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops solid-state lithium-metal battery technology for electric vehicles and other applications in the United States. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
QuantumScape Corporation reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$435M in FY2025.
QS screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- QuantumScape Stock: Is It Finally Time to Buy Below $6?
- AST SpaceMobile vs. QuantumScape: Which Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
- Archer Aviation vs. QuantumScape: Which EV Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
- Is QS Stock a Buy After the Q2 Earnings Sell-Off or a Value Trap?
Peer Group
Auto Parts · 642 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 482,000 KRW | 678,420 KRW | +41% |
| Magna International Inc MGAN | 1,122 MXN | 1,172 MXN | +4% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹144.17 | ₹80.63 | -44% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹41,110 | ₹14,004 | -66% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹792.00 | ₹207.06 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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