Freightcar America Inc (RAIL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Freightcar America Inc $22.09, price $7.42, upside +197.7%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.27 – $15.71 · fair‑value band $15.64 – $30.66 · the $7.42 price screens below the $22.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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FreightCar America, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells railcars and railcar components for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Aftermarket.
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FreightCar America, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells railcars and railcar components for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through two segments: Manufacturing and Aftermarket. It offers a range of railcars, including boxcars, covered and open-top hopper cars, intermodal and non-intermodal flat cars, mill gondola cars, coil steel cars, coal cars, dynastack series, steel products, boxcars, aluminum coal cars, stainless steel and hybrid stainless steel cars, and other railcar types, as well as other supplies for all railcar types, and provides aftermarket services including safety training, railcar inspections, and preventative maintenance. The company also sells used railcars; rebuilds, converts, and leases railcars; and sells forged, cast, and fabricated parts for various railcars. It serves shippers, railroads, and financial institutions. FreightCar America, Inc. was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Freightcar America Inc (RAIL) currently trades at $7.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.09, implying the stock looks roughly 66.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.69 per share, and 20 of the 20 models we run sit above the $7.42 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $12.31, and 0 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $15.64 (bear) to $30.66 (bull), the price of $7.42 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Freightcar America Inc reported revenue of $501M in FY2025 versus $203M in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was $38.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $251M · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) $0.7200 · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin −0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 198%, RAIL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.64Fair Value $22.09Bull $30.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5287 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−32.9% (2019) → 6.7% (2024)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.0% a year for the price and +20.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+198% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−33% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF8.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.64× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Freightcar America Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RAIL
Frequently asked questions
Is Freightcar America Inc (RAIL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.09 versus a price of $7.42, about +198% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RAIL?
Our model-based fair value for Freightcar America Inc is $22.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.42.
What is the quality score of RAIL?
Freightcar America Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.64, optimistic scenario $30.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Freightcar America Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.09, about +198% upside versus a price of $7.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $15.64, optimistic scenario $30.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
Freightcar America Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $469M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Freightcar America Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RAIL use?
Our models discount Freightcar America Inc at 14.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Freightcar America Inc that is +4.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Freightcar America Inc (RAIL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Freightcar America Inc grew +35.8 % a year. The price currently implies +4.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Freightcar America Inc (+4.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.52 %: that much free cash flow Freightcar America Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Freightcar America Inc it is $22.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.42. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Freightcar America Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RAIL trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.42, fair value $22.09, a gap of about +198% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RAIL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.09). For Freightcar America Inc the two are $14.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Freightcar America Inc worth?
The market values Freightcar America Inc at about $251M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.42; our models calculate a fair value of $22.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RAIL?
Our models span a range for Freightcar America Inc: cautious scenario $15.64, base $22.09, optimistic $30.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RAIL?
Freightcar America Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
What is the PEG ratio of RAIL?
The PEG ratio of Freightcar America Inc is 0.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Freightcar America Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RAIL from its 52-week high?
Freightcar America Inc trades at $7.42, about 50% below its 52-week high of $14.80 and 11% above the low of $6.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Freightcar America Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Freightcar America Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.42, calculated fair value $22.09 (+198%), Quality Score 41/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RAIL calculated?
We run Freightcar America Inc through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Freightcar America Inc currently trades 198 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $7.42. Our model-based fair value is $22.09, about +198% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Freightcar America Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($15.64). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($15.64 to $30.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Freightcar America Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
The market capitalisation of Freightcar America Inc is $251M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Freightcar America Inc is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
Earnings per share at Freightcar America Inc are $0.7200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
The net margin of Freightcar America Inc is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Freightcar America Inc is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Freightcar America Inc is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
The operating margin of Freightcar America Inc is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
Revenue at Freightcar America Inc is growing −33.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Freightcar America Inc (RAIL)?
Earnings per share at Freightcar America Inc are growing −24.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Freightcar America Inc (RAIL) carry?
The net debt of Freightcar America Inc is $88.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026