Rumo S.A (RAIL3) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · BR · Market cap R$26.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +6.3% over the past month.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$11.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range R$12.33 – R$17.04 · fair‑value band R$7.19 – R$11.98 · the R$14.28 price screens above the R$9.59 fair value. As of Jul 16, 2026.
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Rumo S.A (RAIL3) currently trades at R$14.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$9.59, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Rumo S.A generated revenue of R$14.2B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at R$24.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$7.19 (bear case) to R$11.98 (bull case); at R$14.28, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -33%, RAIL3 screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations.
Full company description
Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations. The South Operations segment comprises of rail and transhipment operations in the area of Rumo Malha Sul and Rumo Malha Oeste concessions. The Container Operations segment engages in the rail and road transport, and container logistics and operations. It offers logistics services primarily for exporting commodities, including integrated solution for transportation, movement, storage, and shipment from the production centers to the main ports in the south and southeast of Brazil. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Curitiba, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rumo S.A reported revenue of R$13.8B in FY2025 versus R$7.4B in FY2021, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$847M in FY2025, compounding +54.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $259.91 | $143.65 | -45% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $46.23 | $10.82 | -77% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $89.60 | $29.46 | -67% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$166.50 | C$63.43 | -62% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $308.93 | $102.07 | -67% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation W1AB34 | R$642.84 | R$341.60 | -47% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥5.02 | ¥4.30 | -14% |
| MTR Corporation MTRJF | $4.55 | $5.35 | +18% |
| East Japan Railway Company EJPRF | $22.24 | $21.77 | -2% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥11.32 | +100% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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