Rumo S.A (RAIL3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Rumo S.A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$12.33 – R$22.81 · fair‑value band R$7.19 – R$11.98 · the R$14.83 price screens above the R$9.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations.
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Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations. The South Operations segment comprises of rail and transhipment operations in the area of Rumo Malha Sul and Rumo Malha Oeste concessions. The Container Operations segment engages in the rail and road transport, and container logistics and operations. It offers logistics services primarily for exporting commodities, including integrated solution for transportation, movement, storage, and shipment from the production centers to the main ports in the south and southeast of Brazil. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Curitiba, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Rumo S.A (RAIL3) currently trades at R$14.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$9.59, implying the stock looks roughly 54.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$13.06 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the R$14.83 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$5.00, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$7.19 (bear) to R$11.98 (bull), the price of R$14.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Rumo S.A reported revenue of R$13.8B in FY2025 versus R$7.4B in FY2021, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$847M in FY2025, compounding +54.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap R$27.6B (≈ $5.4B) · P/E ratio 26.5 · P/S ratio 1.62 · EPS (TTM) R$0.5600 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −35%, RAIL3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$7.19Fair Value R$9.59Bull R$11.98
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.3180 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+21.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21% vs 11%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 42%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (12 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Below median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.5× · Pricier than median
P/B1.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.84× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)53· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)20· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rumo S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RAIL3
Frequently asked questions
Is Rumo S.A (RAIL3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$9.59 versus a price of R$14.83, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RAIL3?
Our model-based fair value for Rumo S.A is R$9.59 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$14.83.
What is the quality score of RAIL3?
Rumo S.A has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$9.59 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$7.19, optimistic scenario R$11.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rumo S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$9.59, about −35% upside versus a price of R$14.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$7.19, optimistic scenario R$11.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
Rumo S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$14.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Rumo S.A pay a dividend?
Rumo S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rumo S.A it is R$9.59 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of R$14.83. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rumo S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, RAIL3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$14.83, fair value R$9.59, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RAIL3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$14.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$9.59). For Rumo S.A the two are R$5.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rumo S.A worth?
The market values Rumo S.A at about R$27.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is R$14.83; our models calculate a fair value of R$9.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RAIL3?
Our models span a range for Rumo S.A: cautious scenario R$7.19, base R$9.59, optimistic R$11.98 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price R$14.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RAIL3?
Rumo S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$9.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rumo S.A (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 1.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RAIL3 from its 52-week high?
Rumo S.A trades at R$14.83, about 24% below its 52-week high of R$19.46 and 12% above the low of R$13.22 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$9.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rumo S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rumo S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price R$14.83, calculated fair value R$9.59 (−35%), Quality Score 50/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RAIL3 calculated?
We run Rumo S.A through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$9.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Rumo S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Rumo S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$11.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Rumo S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
The market capitalisation of Rumo S.A is R$27.6B (≈ $5.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rumo S.A is 1.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
Earnings per share at Rumo S.A are R$0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
The dividend yield of Rumo S.A is 0.7% (payout 19.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
The net margin of Rumo S.A is 6.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rumo S.A is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rumo S.A is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
The operating margin of Rumo S.A is 37.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
Revenue at Rumo S.A is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
Earnings per share at Rumo S.A are growing −40.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rumo S.A (RAIL3) generate?
The free cash flow of Rumo S.A is −R$134M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rumo S.A (RAIL3) carry?
The net debt of Rumo S.A is R$24.2B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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