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Rumo S.A (RAIL3) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · BR · Market cap R$26.1B

RS Rumo S.A RAIL3 · SA
PriceR$14.28
Fair ValueR$9.59
Upside-32.8%
Quality49/100
Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 7.3% net margin
High debt · negative free cash flow
0.76% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Moderate moat 58/100
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Evidence: High Range R$7.19 – R$11.98 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 14 days ago

Share price +6.3% over the past month.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$11.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

R$17.04 R$12.33 Fair Value R$9.59 Jul 2025 Jul 2026

12‑month range R$12.33 – R$17.04 · fair‑value band R$7.19 – R$11.98 · the R$14.28 price screens above the R$9.59 fair value. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Rumo S.A (RAIL3) currently trades at R$14.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$9.59, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Rumo S.A generated revenue of R$14.2B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at R$24.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$7.19 (bear case) to R$11.98 (bull case); at R$14.28, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -33%, RAIL3 screens cheaper than that median.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) R$14.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.6%
Net margin 7.3%
Return on equity 7.3%
Free cash flow −R$134M FY2025
P/E ratio 24.9
More key figures
Operating margin 37.5%
EPS (TTM) R$0.5600
Dividend yield 0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -40.1%
Net debt R$24.2B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100
Profitability 25
Quality Growth 57
Cashflow 53
Fin. Strength 20
Investment 58
Low Volatility 78
Momentum 28
52W Momentum 29
Net Issuance 80

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations.

Full company description

Rumo S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the rail logistics operation. The company operates through North Operations, South Operations, and Container Operations segments. The North Operations segment is involved in the railway, highway, and transshipment operations. The South Operations segment comprises of rail and transhipment operations in the area of Rumo Malha Sul and Rumo Malha Oeste concessions. The Container Operations segment engages in the rail and road transport, and container logistics and operations. It offers logistics services primarily for exporting commodities, including integrated solution for transportation, movement, storage, and shipment from the production centers to the main ports in the south and southeast of Brazil. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Curitiba, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Rumo S.A reported revenue of R$13.8B in FY2025 versus R$7.4B in FY2021, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$847M in FY2025, compounding +54.0%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +16.8%/yr
FY21 R$7.4B
FY22 R$9.8B
FY23 R$10.9B
FY24 R$13.9B
FY25 R$13.8B
Net income +54.0%/yr
FY21 R$151M
FY22 R$515M
FY23 R$720M
FY24 −R$959M
FY25 R$847M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rumo S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RAIL3

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 / 25
FUTURE 53 / 19
PAST 29 / 29
HEALTH 20 / 88
DIVIDEND 15 / 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is Rumo S.A (RAIL3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$9.59 versus a price of R$14.28, about −33% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RAIL3?
Our model-based fair value for Rumo S.A is R$9.59 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R$14.28.
What is the quality score of RAIL3?
Rumo S.A has a Quality Score of 49/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Rumo S.A (RAIL3)?
Rumo S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$14.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of RAIL3?
The net profit margin of Rumo S.A is about 7.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Rumo S.A pay a dividend?
Rumo S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.78% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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