Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Rockhopper Exploration £0.31, price £0.61, upside -48.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.0471 – £0.8960 · fair‑value band £0.2600 – £0.3900 · the £0.6070 price screens above the £0.3100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Rockhopper Exploration plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and gas acreage. It has operations in the Falkland Islands, the Greater Mediterranean, the Ombrina Mare Arbitration, the United Kingdom, and Italy.
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Rockhopper Exploration plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and gas acreage. It has operations in the Falkland Islands, the Greater Mediterranean, the Ombrina Mare Arbitration, the United Kingdom, and Italy. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Wiltshire, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) currently trades at £0.6070, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.3100, 48.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £0.3300 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the £0.6070 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.2000, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.2600 (bear) to £0.3900 (bull), the price of £0.6070 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Rockhopper Exploration reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $839K in FY2021. Reported net income was −$40.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 629M GBX · EPS (TTM) £−0.0400 · Return on equity −12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% · Revenue (TTM) 129K GBX · Revenue growth (YoY) −73.8% · Free cash flow $23.8M · Net cash $105M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −49%, RKH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.2600Fair Value £0.3100Bull £0.3900
Price £0.6070 · Upside -48.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.6/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−60.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−42.5%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−232.2% (2016) → −523.5% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 278 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−48.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−73.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.39× · Pricier than median
P/FCF34.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 85
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rockhopper Exploration Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RKH
Frequently asked questions
Is Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.3100 versus a price of £0.6070, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RKH?
Our model-based fair value for Rockhopper Exploration is £0.3100 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.6070.
What is the quality score of RKH?
Rockhopper Exploration has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.3100 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.2600, optimistic scenario £0.3900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rockhopper Exploration stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.3100, about −49% upside versus a price of £0.6070 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.2600, optimistic scenario £0.3900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
Rockhopper Exploration reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £129K (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rockhopper Exploration would have to grow free cash flow by +11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -42.5 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RKH use?
Our models discount Rockhopper Exploration at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rockhopper Exploration that is +11.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rockhopper Exploration grew -42.5 % a year. The price currently implies +11.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rockhopper Exploration (+11.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.59 %: that much free cash flow Rockhopper Exploration produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rockhopper Exploration it is £0.3100 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of £0.6070. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rockhopper Exploration stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, RKH trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.6070, fair value £0.3100, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RKH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.6070); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.3100). For Rockhopper Exploration the two are £0.2970 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rockhopper Exploration worth?
The market values Rockhopper Exploration at about 629M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is £0.6070; our models calculate a fair value of £0.3100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RKH?
Our models span a range for Rockhopper Exploration: cautious scenario £0.2600, base £0.3100, optimistic £0.3900 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price £0.6070). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rockhopper Exploration (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −12.8%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RKH from its 52-week high?
Rockhopper Exploration trades at £0.6070, about 32% below its 52-week high of £0.8960 and 3% above the low of £0.5880 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.3100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rockhopper Exploration?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rockhopper Exploration stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price £0.6070, calculated fair value £0.3100 (−49%), Quality Score 53/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RKH calculated?
We run Rockhopper Exploration through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.3100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Rockhopper Exploration itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was £0.6070. Our model-based fair value is £0.3100, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rockhopper Exploration right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.3900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Rockhopper Exploration
How large is the market capitalisation of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
The market capitalisation of Rockhopper Exploration is 629M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
Earnings per share at Rockhopper Exploration are £−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rockhopper Exploration is −12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rockhopper Exploration is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Rockhopper Exploration (RKH)?
Revenue at Rockhopper Exploration is growing −73.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) hold?
Rockhopper Exploration holds more cash than debt, $105M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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