Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · GB · Market cap 634M GBX
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £0.3900 to £0.2900 (−25.6%) since Aug 19, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.3600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.0471 – £0.8960 · fair‑value band £0.2500 – £0.3600 · the £0.7300 price screens above the £0.2900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) currently trades at £0.7300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.2900, implying the stock looks roughly 60.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at £129K. Revenue declined 73.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £105M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.2500 (bear case) to £0.3600 (bull case); at £0.7300, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -60%, RKH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£0.4200) versus Asset-Based (£0.2700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rockhopper Exploration plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and gas acreage. It has operations in the Falkland Islands, the Greater Mediterranean, the Ombrina Mare Arbitration, the United Kingdom, and Italy.
Full company description
Rockhopper Exploration plc, an oil and gas exploration and production company, engages in the exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and gas acreage. It has operations in the Falkland Islands, the Greater Mediterranean, the Ombrina Mare Arbitration, the United Kingdom, and Italy. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Wiltshire, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rockhopper Exploration reported revenue of £0 in FY2025 versus £839K in FY2021. Reported net income was −£40.5M in FY2025.
RKH screens 60% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 328 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $126.78 | $90.15 | -29% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$66.38 | C$44.23 | -33% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.14 | $130.19 | -9% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.55 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $210.02 | $105.24 | -50% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $44.86 | $27.06 | -40% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.06 | $42.85 | -21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $342.77 | $77.26 | -77% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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