Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Rakuten Group Inc $4.81, price $4.05, upside +18.8%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.33 – $13.93 · fair‑value band $3.54 – $6.09 · the $4.05 price screens below the $4.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Rakuten Group, Inc. provides various services in e-commerce, fintech, digital content, and communications to various users in Japan, the Americas, Europe, rest of Asia, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Internet Services, FinTech, and Mobile.
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Rakuten Group, Inc. provides various services in e-commerce, fintech, digital content, and communications to various users in Japan, the Americas, Europe, rest of Asia, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Internet Services, FinTech, and Mobile. The company operates a range of e-commerce sites comprising Rakuten Ichiba, an Internet shopping mall; online cash-back sites; travel booking sites; portal sites; and digital content sites, as well as provides messaging services. It also offers credit card, banking, and securities services through the Internet; crypto asset/virtual currency spot transactions; life and general insurance services; and payment services. In addition, the company engages in the sale of advertising; management of professional sport teams; provision of communication services and technologies; operation of electricity supply services; and investment activities. The company was formerly known as Rakuten, Inc. and changed its name to Rakuten Group, Inc. in April 2021. Rakuten Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Setagaya, Japan.
Stock analysis
Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) currently trades at $4.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.81, implying the stock looks roughly 15.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.08 per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the $4.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.58, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.54 (bear) to $6.09 (bull), the price of $4.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Rakuten Group Inc reported revenue of ¥2.5T in FY2025 versus ¥1.7T in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was −¥178B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $9.8B · EPS (TTM) $−0.5100 · Net margin −7.1% · Return on equity −5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% · Operating margin 5.5% · Revenue (TTM) $2.6T · Revenue growth (YoY) +14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 19%, RKUNF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.54Fair Value $4.81Bull $6.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.5% (2020) → 3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+19% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rakuten Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RKUNF
Frequently asked questions
Is Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.81 versus a price of $4.05, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RKUNF?
Our model-based fair value for Rakuten Group Inc is $4.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.05.
What is the quality score of RKUNF?
Rakuten Group Inc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.54, optimistic scenario $6.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rakuten Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.81, about +19% upside versus a price of $4.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.54, optimistic scenario $6.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Rakuten Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.6T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rakuten Group Inc it is $4.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.05. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rakuten Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RKUNF trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.05, fair value $4.81, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RKUNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.81). For Rakuten Group Inc the two are $0.7600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rakuten Group Inc worth?
The market values Rakuten Group Inc at about $9.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.05; our models calculate a fair value of $4.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RKUNF?
Our models span a range for Rakuten Group Inc: cautious scenario $3.54, base $4.81, optimistic $6.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RKUNF?
The PEG ratio of Rakuten Group Inc is 24.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rakuten Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.2%, debt of 5.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RKUNF from its 52-week high?
Rakuten Group Inc trades at $4.05, about 45% below its 52-week high of $7.32 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rakuten Group Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rakuten Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.05, calculated fair value $4.81 (+19%), Quality Score 32/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RKUNF calculated?
We run Rakuten Group Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Rakuten Group Inc currently trades 19 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $4.05. Our model-based fair value is $4.81, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rakuten Group Inc right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Rakuten Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The market capitalisation of Rakuten Group Inc is $9.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Earnings per share at Rakuten Group Inc are $−0.5100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The net margin of Rakuten Group Inc is −7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rakuten Group Inc is −5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rakuten Group Inc is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The operating margin of Rakuten Group Inc is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Revenue at Rakuten Group Inc is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) generate?
The free cash flow of Rakuten Group Inc is $278B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) carry?
The net debt of Rakuten Group Inc is $93.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026