Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rakuten Group Inc stock $4.81, price $3.94, upside +22.1%, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.33 – $13.93 · fair‑value band $3.54 – $6.07 · the $3.94 price screens below the $4.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Rakuten Group, Inc. provides various services in e-commerce, fintech, digital content, and communications to various users in Japan, the Americas, Europe, rest of Asia, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Internet Services, FinTech, and Mobile.
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The company operates a range of e-commerce sites comprising Rakuten Ichiba, an Internet shopping mall; online cash-back sites; travel booking sites; portal sites; and digital content sites, as well as provides messaging services.
It also offers credit card, banking, and securities services through the Internet; crypto asset/virtual currency spot transactions; life and general insurance services; and payment services.
In addition, the company engages in the sale of advertising; management of professional sport teams; provision of communication services and technologies; operation of electricity supply services; and investment activities.
The company was formerly known as Rakuten, Inc. and changed its name to Rakuten Group, Inc. in April 2021. Rakuten Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Setagaya, Japan.
Stock analysis
Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) currently trades at $3.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.81, implying the stock looks roughly 18% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $17.88 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the $3.94 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.27, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.54 (bear) to $6.07 (bull), the price of $3.94 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Rakuten Group Inc reported revenue of ¥2.5T in FY2025 versus ¥1.7T in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was −¥178B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $8.6B Mid · EPS (TTM) $−0.1900 · Net margin −7.1% · Return on equity 0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.3% · Revenue (TTM) ¥2.6T · Revenue growth (YoY) +11.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 22%, RKUNF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.54Fair Value $4.81Bull$6.07
Price $3.94 · Upside +22.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.5% (2020) → 3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.9% a year for the price and +5.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Negative margins and high leverage limit any durable advantage in internet retail, even though the fintech reorganization seeks synergies via data and AI integration.
Main risk: High leverage with negative equity returns risks limiting the company's capacity to sustain operations and investments amid ongoing net losses.
Rakuten has reorganized its fintech operations with Rakuten Bank now serving as the parent for the card and securities units. The goal is deeper integration of funding, customer data and AI tools across these businesses to drive synergies. Will this structure unlock faster cross-selling gains or mainly create temporary integration hurdles?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 100 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+22.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.3% · Below median
Return on assets−0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−2.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.37× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rakuten Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RKUNF
Frequently asked questions
Is Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.81 versus a price of $3.94, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RKUNF?
Our model-based fair value for Rakuten Group Inc is $4.81 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.94.
What is the quality score of RKUNF?
Rakuten Group Inc has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.81 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.54, optimistic scenario $6.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rakuten Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.81, about +22% upside versus a price of $3.94 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.54, optimistic scenario $6.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Rakuten Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.6T (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rakuten Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -20.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RKUNF use?
Our models discount Rakuten Group Inc at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rakuten Group Inc that is -20.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rakuten Group Inc grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -20.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rakuten Group Inc (-20.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.42 %: that much free cash flow Rakuten Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rakuten Group Inc it is $4.81 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $3.94. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Rakuten Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, RKUNF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.94, fair value $4.81, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RKUNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.81). For Rakuten Group Inc the two are $0.8700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rakuten Group Inc worth?
The market values Rakuten Group Inc at about $8.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $3.94; our models calculate a fair value of $4.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RKUNF?
Our models span a range for Rakuten Group Inc: cautious scenario $3.54, base $4.81, optimistic $6.07 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $3.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of RKUNF?
The PEG ratio of Rakuten Group Inc is 24.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rakuten Group Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 0.3%, debt of 5.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RKUNF from its 52-week high?
Rakuten Group Inc trades at $3.94, about 43% below its 52-week high of $6.86 and 5% above the low of $3.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rakuten Group Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rakuten Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $3.94, calculated fair value $4.81 (+22%), Quality Score 35/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RKUNF calculated?
We run Rakuten Group Inc through 13 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.81 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Rakuten Group Inc currently trades 18% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was $3.94. Our model-based fair value is $4.81, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rakuten Group Inc right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Rakuten Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The market capitalisation of Rakuten Group Inc is $8.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Earnings per share at Rakuten Group Inc are $−0.1900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The net margin of Rakuten Group Inc is −7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rakuten Group Inc is 0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rakuten Group Inc is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
The operating margin of Rakuten Group Inc is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF)?
Revenue at Rakuten Group Inc is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Rakuten Group Inc (RKUNF) carry?
The net debt of Rakuten Group Inc is ¥93.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026