RLX Technology Inc (RLX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what RLX Technology Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8922 – $8.96 · fair‑value band $1.59 – $3.60 · the $1.77 price screens below the $2.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
RLX Technology Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells e-vapor products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers rechargeable e-vapor products under the Qingyu, Phantom, Phantom Pro, Zeus, Leili, and Daqian names; and disposable e-vapor products under the Feiliu and Feiliu Mega names.
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RLX Technology Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells e-vapor products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers rechargeable e-vapor products under the Qingyu, Phantom, Phantom Pro, Zeus, Leili, and Daqian names; and disposable e-vapor products under the Feiliu and Feiliu Mega names. The company also provides closed-system rechargeable products, open-system products, closed-system disposable products, and modern oral products. It sells its products through local channels, third-party distribution channels, and distribution channels co-managed with third parties, as well as online and offline end users. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
RLX Technology Inc (RLX) currently trades at $1.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.38, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $19.17 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the $1.77 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $6.29, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.59 (bear) to $3.60 (bull), the price of $1.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
RLX Technology Inc reported revenue of $3.5B in FY2025 versus $8.5B in FY2021, a compound −19.8%/yr. Reported net income was $897M in FY2025, compounding −18.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 4.26 · EPS (TTM) $0.1100 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 25.5% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 34%, RLX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.59Fair Value $2.38Bull $3.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+59.7%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +53.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+48.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 9%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 71% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth107% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
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Is RLX Technology Inc (RLX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.38 versus a price of $1.77, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RLX?
Our model-based fair value for RLX Technology Inc is $2.38 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.77.
What is the quality score of RLX?
RLX Technology Inc has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.38 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.59, optimistic scenario $3.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the RLX Technology Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.38, about +34% upside versus a price of $1.77 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.59, optimistic scenario $3.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
RLX Technology Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does RLX Technology Inc pay a dividend?
RLX Technology Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, RLX Technology Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RLX use?
Our models discount RLX Technology Inc at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For RLX Technology Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has RLX Technology Inc (RLX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at RLX Technology Inc grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of RLX Technology Inc (RLX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into RLX Technology Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 45.51 %: that much free cash flow RLX Technology Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For RLX Technology Inc it is $2.38 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $1.77. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is RLX Technology Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, RLX trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.77, fair value $2.38, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RLX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.38). For RLX Technology Inc the two are $0.6070 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is RLX Technology Inc worth?
The market values RLX Technology Inc at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $1.77; our models calculate a fair value of $2.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RLX?
Our models span a range for RLX Technology Inc: cautious scenario $1.59, base $2.38, optimistic $3.60 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $1.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RLX?
RLX Technology Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.38 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
Balance-sheet figures for RLX Technology Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 6.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RLX from its 52-week high?
RLX Technology Inc trades at $1.77, about 35% below its 52-week high of $2.71 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to RLX Technology Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is RLX Technology Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $1.77, calculated fair value $2.38 (+34%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RLX calculated?
We run RLX Technology Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. RLX Technology Inc currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with RLX Technology Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (78/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($1.59 to $3.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of RLX Technology Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
The market capitalisation of RLX Technology Inc is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of RLX Technology Inc is 4.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
Earnings per share at RLX Technology Inc are $0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
The dividend yield of RLX Technology Inc is 5.4% (payout 87.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
The net margin of RLX Technology Inc is 25.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of RLX Technology Inc is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of RLX Technology Inc is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
The operating margin of RLX Technology Inc is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
Revenue at RLX Technology Inc is growing +107% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at RLX Technology Inc (RLX)?
Earnings per share at RLX Technology Inc are growing +27.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does RLX Technology Inc (RLX) hold?
RLX Technology Inc holds more cash than debt, $5.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 13, 2026