PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, (HMSP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 80.8T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +17.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 30% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (678.18 IDR to 1,268 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 431.14 IDR – 999.54 IDR · fair‑value band 678.18 IDR – 1,268 IDR · the 780.00 IDR price screens below the 1,014 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, (HMSP) currently trades at 780.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,014 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 30.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, generated revenue of 47.8T IDR at a net margin of 14.1%. Revenue declined 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 4.4T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 678.18 IDR (bear case) to 1,268 IDR (bull case); at 780.00 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 30%, HMSP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,141 IDR) versus Asset-Based (163.30 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture, distribution, and trading of cigarettes and other tobacco products in Indonesia and Internationally.
Full company description
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture, distribution, and trading of cigarettes and other tobacco products in Indonesia and Internationally. It offers combustible cigarettes, including machine-made kretek (SKM), hand-rolled kretek, machine-made white, and hand-rolled white cigarettes under the Dji Sam Soe Magnum, Sampoerna Kretek, Sampoerna A, Magnum, and Marlboro Filter Black brand names. The company also provides smoke-free products, such as heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral smokeless products. In addition, it is involved in general trading; e-commerce and agency; and property development business. Further, the company offers general importer, warehousing, and delivery services; job training; and management consulting, advertising, and brand management services. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia. PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Philip Morris Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, reported revenue of 44.3T IDR in FY2025 versus 98.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound −18.2%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6T IDR in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Watch HMSP: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Tobacco · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $188.93 | $103.71 | -45% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $60.02 | $61.14 | +2% |
| Altria Group MO | $68.44 | $81.81 | +20% |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹281.75 | ₹282.04 | +0% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 179,900 KRW | 119,073 KRW | -34% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,337 | ₹1,194 | -49% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 16,375 IDR | 16,988 IDR | +4% |
| TABAK TABAK | 18,480 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +26% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.00 | HK$24.09 | +5% |
| Universal Corporation UVV | $53.14 | $27.50 | -48% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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