Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT IDR 834, price IDR 645, upside +29.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 431.14 IDR – 895.65 IDR · fair‑value band 562.14 IDR – 1,157 IDR · the 645.00 IDR price screens below the 833.82 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture, distribution, and trading of cigarettes and other tobacco products in Indonesia and Internationally.
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PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture, distribution, and trading of cigarettes and other tobacco products in Indonesia and Internationally. It offers combustible cigarettes, including machine-made kretek (SKM), hand-rolled kretek, machine-made white, and hand-rolled white cigarettes under the Dji Sam Soe Magnum, Sampoerna Kretek, Sampoerna A, Magnum, and Marlboro Filter Black brand names. The company also provides smoke-free products, such as heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral smokeless products. In addition, it is involved in general trading; e-commerce and agency; and property development business. Further, the company offers general importer, warehousing, and delivery services; job training; and management consulting, advertising, and brand management services. The company was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia. PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Philip Morris Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) currently trades at 645.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 833.82 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 22.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 1,018 IDR per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the 645.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 163.30 IDR, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 562.14 IDR (bear) to 1,157 IDR (bull), the price of 645.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT reported revenue of 44.3T IDR in FY2025 versus 98.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound −18.2%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6T IDR in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 75.0T IDR (≈ $7.5B) · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) 58.98 IDR · Net margin 14.9% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.2% · Operating margin 23.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 29%, HMSP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 562.14 IDRFair Value 833.82 IDRBull 1,157 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (43.14 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs −5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.5% a year for the price.
Compare Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside+29% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22% · Above median
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 833.82 IDR versus a price of 645.00 IDR, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HMSP?
Our model-based fair value for Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT is 833.82 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 645.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of HMSP?
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 833.82 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 562.14 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,157 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 833.82 IDR, about +29% upside versus a price of 645.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 562.14 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,157 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 47.8T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT would have to grow free cash flow by +0.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMSP use?
Our models discount Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT that is +0.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT grew -13.7 % a year. The price currently implies +0.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (+0.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.88 %: that much free cash flow Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT it is 833.82 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 645.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HMSP trades below its calculated fair value: price 645.00 IDR, fair value 833.82 IDR, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMSP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (645.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (833.82 IDR). For Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT the two are 188.82 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT worth?
The market values Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT at about 75.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 645.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 833.82 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMSP?
Our models span a range for Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT: cautious scenario 562.14 IDR, base 833.82 IDR, optimistic 1,157 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 645.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HMSP?
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 833.82 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.7, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 22.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMSP from its 52-week high?
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT trades at 645.00 IDR, about 25% below its 52-week high of 863.38 IDR and 8% above the low of 595.00 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 833.82 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 645.00 IDR, calculated fair value 833.82 IDR (+29%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMSP calculated?
We run Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 833.82 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 645.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 833.82 IDR, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT right now?
Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (562.14 IDR to 1,157 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) come from?
Earnings per share at Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT grew +3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
The market capitalisation of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT is 75.0T IDR (≈ $7.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT is 1.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
Earnings per share at Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT are 58.98 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
The net margin of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT is 14.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT is 16.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
The operating margin of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
Revenue at Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT is growing −6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP)?
Earnings per share at Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT are growing +7.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT (HMSP) hold?
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk PT holds more cash than debt, 4.4T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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