Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Philip Morris CR A.S. CZK 23,215, price CZK 18,480, upside +25.6%, quality 85 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 9,780 CZK – 19,122 CZK · fair‑value band 17,411 CZK – 47,787 CZK · the 18,480 CZK price screens below the 23,215 CZK fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Philip Morris CR a.s., through its subsidiary, Philip Morris Slovakia s.r.o., manufactures and markets tobacco products under the Marlboro, L&M, Philip Morris, Petra Klasik, and Sparta brands in the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, and internationally.
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Philip Morris CR a.s., through its subsidiary, Philip Morris Slovakia s.r.o., manufactures and markets tobacco products under the Marlboro, L&M, Philip Morris, Petra Klasik, and Sparta brands in the Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, and internationally. It offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heated tobacco, e-vapor, and oral smokeless products. The company was founded in 1812 and is based in Prague, the Czech Republic. Philip Morris CR a.s. operates as a subsidiary of Philip Morris Holland Holdings B.V.
Stock analysis
Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK) currently trades at 18,480 CZK, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 23,215 CZK, implying the stock looks roughly 20.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 38,551 CZK per share, and 14 of the 23 models we run sit above the 18,480 CZK price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 11,145 CZK, and 9 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 17,411 CZK (bear) to 47,787 CZK (bull), the price of 18,480 CZK sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Philip Morris CR A.S. reported revenue of 21.7B CZK in FY2025 versus 18.9B CZK in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.0B CZK in FY2025, compounding −3.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 50.7B CZK (≈ $2.4B) · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 2.34 · EPS (TTM) 1,105 CZK · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 36.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 24.0% · Operating margin 16.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at 26%, TABAK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 17,411 CZKFair Value 23,215 CZKBull 47,787 CZK
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (808.64 CZK per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 17%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Czechia: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+26% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)36% · Top 25%
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)16% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
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Is Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 23,215 CZK versus a price of 18,480 CZK, about +26% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TABAK?
Our model-based fair value for Philip Morris CR A.S. is 23,215 CZK (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 18,480 CZK.
What is the quality score of TABAK?
Philip Morris CR A.S. has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 23,215 CZK (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 17,411 CZK, optimistic scenario 47,787 CZK. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Philip Morris CR A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 23,215 CZK, about +26% upside versus a price of 18,480 CZK (undervalued). Cautious scenario 17,411 CZK, optimistic scenario 47,787 CZK. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
Philip Morris CR A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 21.7B CZK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Philip Morris CR A.S. would have to grow free cash flow by -20.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TABAK use?
Our models discount Philip Morris CR A.S. at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Czechia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Philip Morris CR A.S. that is -20.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Philip Morris CR A.S. grew +3.9 % a year. The price currently implies -20.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Philip Morris CR A.S. (-20.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.99 %: that much free cash flow Philip Morris CR A.S. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Philip Morris CR A.S. it is 23,215 CZK per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 18,480 CZK. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Philip Morris CR A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TABAK trades below its calculated fair value: price 18,480 CZK, fair value 23,215 CZK, a gap of about +26% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TABAK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (18,480 CZK); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (23,215 CZK). For Philip Morris CR A.S. the two are 4,735 CZK per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Philip Morris CR A.S. worth?
The market values Philip Morris CR A.S. at about 50.7B CZK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 18,480 CZK; our models calculate a fair value of 23,215 CZK per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TABAK?
Our models span a range for Philip Morris CR A.S.: cautious scenario 17,411 CZK, base 23,215 CZK, optimistic 47,787 CZK per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 18,480 CZK). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TABAK?
Philip Morris CR A.S. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 23,215 CZK is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.2, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 9.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Philip Morris CR A.S. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 36.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 85/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TABAK from its 52-week high?
Philip Morris CR A.S. trades at 18,480 CZK, about 3% below its 52-week high of 19,122 CZK and 9% above the low of 16,903 CZK (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 23,215 CZK is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Philip Morris CR A.S.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, ITC Limited, KT&G Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Philip Morris CR A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 18,480 CZK, calculated fair value 23,215 CZK (+26%), Quality Score 85/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TABAK calculated?
We run Philip Morris CR A.S. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 23,215 CZK, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Philip Morris CR A.S. currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 18,480 CZK. Our model-based fair value is 23,215 CZK, about +26% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Philip Morris CR A.S. right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (85/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide (17,411 CZK to 47,787 CZK). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Philip Morris CR A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
The market capitalisation of Philip Morris CR A.S. is 50.7B CZK (≈ $2.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Philip Morris CR A.S. is 2.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
Earnings per share at Philip Morris CR A.S. are 1,105 CZK (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
The net margin of Philip Morris CR A.S. is 14.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Philip Morris CR A.S. is 36.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Philip Morris CR A.S. is 24.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
The operating margin of Philip Morris CR A.S. is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
Revenue at Philip Morris CR A.S. is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Philip Morris CR A.S. (TABAK)?
Earnings per share at Philip Morris CR A.S. are growing −4.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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