PT Gudang Garam Tbk, (GGRM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 31.5T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from 20,535 IDR to 16,988 IDR (−17.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +35.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (21,236 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7,772 IDR – 35,294 IDR · fair‑value band 12,741 IDR – 21,236 IDR · the 21,725 IDR price screens above the 16,988 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, (GGRM) currently trades at 21,725 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,988 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 21.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Gudang Garam Tbk, generated revenue of 86.4T IDR at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue declined 12.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 2.9T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 12,741 IDR (bear case) to 21,236 IDR (bull case); at 21,725 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 173% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -22%, GGRM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (48,181 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (4,967 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cigarettes, Paperboards, Infrastructure, and Others segments.
Full company description
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cigarettes, Paperboards, Infrastructure, and Others segments. The company offers hand-rolled, machine-made, and klobot clove cigarettes under the Gudang Garam Family, Surya Family, and GG Family brand names. It also involved in trading business; and provision of safety protective equipment, airport, toll road, and construction services. In addition, the company offers tobacco processing, non-scheduled air transportation, infrastructure, entertainment, and tourism services. The company was formerly known as PT Perusahaan Rokok Tjap "Gudang Garam" Kediri. PT Gudang Garam Tbk was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Kediri, Indonesia. PT Gudang Garam Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Suryaduta Investama.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, reported revenue of 89.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 125T IDR in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6T IDR in FY2025, compounding −27.4%/yr from FY2021.
GGRM screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Philip Morris International Inc →
Peer Group
Tobacco · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $188.93 | $103.71 | -45% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $60.02 | $61.14 | +2% |
| Altria Group MO | $68.44 | $81.81 | +20% |
| ITC Limited ITC | ₹281.75 | ₹282.04 | +0% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 179,900 KRW | 119,073 KRW | -34% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 695.00 IDR | 1,193 IDR | +72% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹2,337 | ₹1,194 | -49% |
| TABAK TABAK | 18,480 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +26% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.00 | HK$24.09 | +5% |
| Universal Corporation UVV | $53.14 | $27.50 | -48% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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