Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Gudang Garam Tbk IDR 16,988, price IDR 17,350, upside -2.1%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7,772 IDR – 35,294 IDR · fair‑value band 12,741 IDR – 21,236 IDR · the 17,350 IDR price screens above the 16,988 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Gudang Garam Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cigarettes, Paperboards, Infrastructure, and Others segments.
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PT Gudang Garam Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cigarettes, Paperboards, Infrastructure, and Others segments. The company offers hand-rolled, machine-made, and klobot clove cigarettes under the Gudang Garam Family, Surya Family, and GG Family brand names. It also involved in trading business; and provision of safety protective equipment, airport, toll road, and construction services. In addition, the company offers tobacco processing, non-scheduled air transportation, infrastructure, entertainment, and tourism services. The company was formerly known as PT Perusahaan Rokok Tjap "Gudang Garam" Kediri. PT Gudang Garam Tbk was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Kediri, Indonesia. PT Gudang Garam Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Suryaduta Investama.
Stock analysis
Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) currently trades at 17,350 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,988 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 2.1% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 42,923 IDR per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the 17,350 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 4,967 IDR, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12,741 IDR (bear) to 21,236 IDR (bull), the price of 17,350 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Gudang Garam Tbk reported revenue of 89.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 125T IDR in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.6T IDR in FY2025, compounding −27.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 33.4T IDR (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) 1,554 IDR · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −2%, GGRM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12,741 IDRFair Value 16,988 IDRBull 21,236 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,141 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27% vs −13%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.4% a year for the price and −1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
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Is Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16,988 IDR versus a price of 17,350 IDR, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GGRM?
Our model-based fair value for Gudang Garam Tbk is 16,988 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17,350 IDR.
What is the quality score of GGRM?
Gudang Garam Tbk has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16,988 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12,741 IDR, optimistic scenario 21,236 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gudang Garam Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16,988 IDR, about −2% upside versus a price of 17,350 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 12,741 IDR, optimistic scenario 21,236 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
Gudang Garam Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 86.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Gudang Garam Tbk pay a dividend?
Gudang Garam Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gudang Garam Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GGRM use?
Our models discount Gudang Garam Tbk at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gudang Garam Tbk that is -18.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gudang Garam Tbk grew -4.8 % a year. The price currently implies -18.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gudang Garam Tbk (-18.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 27.34 %: that much free cash flow Gudang Garam Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gudang Garam Tbk it is 16,988 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 17,350 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gudang Garam Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GGRM trades above its calculated fair value: price 17,350 IDR, fair value 16,988 IDR, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GGRM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17,350 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16,988 IDR). For Gudang Garam Tbk the two are 361.59 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gudang Garam Tbk worth?
The market values Gudang Garam Tbk at about 33.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 17,350 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 16,988 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GGRM?
Our models span a range for Gudang Garam Tbk: cautious scenario 12,741 IDR, base 16,988 IDR, optimistic 21,236 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 17,350 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GGRM?
Gudang Garam Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16,988 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of GGRM?
The PEG ratio of Gudang Garam Tbk is 1.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gudang Garam Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GGRM from its 52-week high?
Gudang Garam Tbk trades at 17,350 IDR, about 20% below its 52-week high of 21,725 IDR and 62% above the low of 10,735 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16,988 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gudang Garam Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, Altria Group, British American Tobacco p.l.c., ITC Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gudang Garam Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 17,350 IDR, calculated fair value 16,988 IDR (−2%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GGRM calculated?
We run Gudang Garam Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16,988 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gudang Garam Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 17,350 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 16,988 IDR, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gudang Garam Tbk right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) come from?
Earnings per share at Gudang Garam Tbk grew −9.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin −12.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gudang Garam Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
The market capitalisation of Gudang Garam Tbk is 33.4T IDR (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gudang Garam Tbk is 0.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
Earnings per share at Gudang Garam Tbk are 1,554 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
The dividend yield of Gudang Garam Tbk is 3.1% (payout 34.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
The net margin of Gudang Garam Tbk is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gudang Garam Tbk is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gudang Garam Tbk is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
The operating margin of Gudang Garam Tbk is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
Revenue at Gudang Garam Tbk is growing −12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM)?
Earnings per share at Gudang Garam Tbk are growing +13.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) hold?
Gudang Garam Tbk holds more cash than debt, 2.9T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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